Man, am I sorry for the Cub fans who jumped off the bandwagon and decided to pack it in early for “Wait ‘til next year.” While there might be some efficiency in doing that and almost certainly an avoidance of future heartache and frustration, this team is a lot of fun when it’s going good. This third hot streak of the year continues to roll in a game that got so comically out of hand that the Padres went to a position player in the seventh inning. Between Wednesday’s blowout win and last week’s double
header sweep of the Mets, these have been some of the most fun days I can remember.
The script remains the same for this team. In more than half their wins they have scored nine or (many) more runs or won in their last team at-bat. If this team doesn’t blow the other team out of the water, there’s a good chance they won’t win it until late in the game. In this game, they blew out real early. Seiya Suzuki slugged a three-run homer in the first inning and the Cubs were quickly off to the races. Walker Buehler had been throwing pretty well for the Padres, but he was clocked for nine earned runs in this one. That was only one more than Padre catcher Rodolfo Duran ended up being tagged with in relief.
The Cubs piled up 17 hits and drew seven walks in this one. If those numbers weren’t crazy enough, it was the eight homers that was the eye popping number. Dansby Swanson had his first career three homer game and missed another one by maybe a foot. Michael Conforto had his first two-homer game as a Cub. Alex Bregman was designated to make the outs for the team and was 0-5 with a walk. Seven different Cubs drove in runs, led by Dansby Swanson who has fixed his offensive numbers to a large degree over the last two weeks. 10 different Cubs scored runs, led by four from Conforto and Swanson.
The Cubs had a team line of .405/.490/1.024 (wRC+ 309). Of course these numbers are inflated by silly time at the end of the game. You have to finish the game. The Cubs were pretty aggressive at the plate, but they weren’t passing the opportunity to take some quality rips.
On the other side, Colin Rea did his best Javier Assad impression, wherein he allowed a ton of baserunners but somehow escaped trouble over and over again. He three five non-impressive innings and got a win for his efforts. Do you love a pitcher win more with 13 runs scored during your five innings of work or a three-inning save? That makes three of the latter for the Cubs this year.
Jordan Wicks moved into second on the team in saves with his three innings of one-run ball. In his two appearances since being recalled, he has been handed a three-run lead in the 10th at Milwaukee and a 13-run lead against the Padres on a windy day in Chicago and asked not to blow them. He did not blow either one. I’m at least curious to see if Wicks benefits at all from being used out of the pen. As Andrew Chafin reminds us, most relievers are just failed starters. I can’t ever remember watching Wicks pitch and being impressed, but I’m sure it is possible I’ve blocked something out.
The team now sits 11 over .500 at 49-38. As of this morning, there are just four teams with more wins than this Cubs team. The team is flawed, I get it. Of all of the competitive teams in the Ricketts era, it might be the most flawed team. But this team is fun. This team can buzzsaw you. The Padres team the they just swept is also a flawed team. A flawed team that is pretty good. They are no joke. The Cubs just posted 35 runs across three games. Ignoring the eight by a position player, that is 27 runs in 25 innings as they didn’t bat in the ninth the last two games. That’s quite an outburst. The 12 they allowed doesn’t look outlandish, and you feel better in that seven of them came in one game while they were nursing a pretty large lead (at least initially).
I don’t know what anyone is going to do about the Dodgers. There are no rules that stop them from hiring a small market wizard to run one of the very largest market teams. But they are terrifying. They are an organization that churns out elite talent from their system year after year after year. And when there is something they don’t have and can’t trade for with enormous prospect capital, they buy it. They don’t ever have to shop in the clearance rack. But hey, small market wizard, right? They shop in all of the bins. They are a problem.
Aside from the Dodgers, there is no team that you wouldn’t expect to have a puncher’s chance against. This team can pack a pretty significant punch. Especially if they can get any number of their key pitchers standing upright with their arm properly attached come playoff time.
What a time to be a Cub fan.
Three Positives:
- Dansby Swanson is scorching the ball right now. Three homers, eight runs batted in and four runs scored. Two of his homers were pre garbage time.
- Michael Conforto had three hits, two of them homers and was intentionally walked. He drove in four and scored four.
- Seiya Suzuki kicked off the scoring with his three-run homer. He had a double and a single as well and drew a walk. He scored three to go with the three RBI. His season line is up to .274/.357/.466 (wRC+ 128). He is a force offensively.
- Obligatory PCA line: two hits, one a homer, stolen base, three runs driven in, two scored. Didn’t play in garbage time.
Game 87, July 1: Cubs 23, Padres 3 (49-38)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.195). 3-5, HR, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, 3 R
- Hero: Colin Rea (.122). 5 IP, 25 BF, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 5 K (W 6-5)
- Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (.090). 3-5, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 4 R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Michael Busch (-.066). 2-6, HR, RBI, 2 R
- Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.020). 0-3, BB
- Kid: Michael Conforto (-.003). 3-4, 2 HR, BB, 4 RBI, 4 R
WPA Notes: WPA does not care how much traffic a pitcher allows. Assuming you finish the inning, it’s binary. Did runs score? Conforto made an out the first time up and it got lopsided fast. So he ends up with one of the best lines I’ve ever seen on the wrong side of the ledger.
WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s first inning three-run homer. It came with runners on first and third with one out. (.187)
Padres Play of the Game: As has happened so many times recently, the other biggest play immediately preceded it. Michael Busch struck out for the first out of the inning. (.058)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 86 Winner: Dansby Swanson received 95 of 134 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +17
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Trent Thornton +12.5
- Michael Busch +12
- Carson Kelly +11.5
- Dansby Swanson -9
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Seiya Suzuki -11.5
- Caleb Thielbar -13
Up Next: An off day Thursday. The Cardinals (44-39) come to town. They lost to the Braves Wednesday night and play them again in Atlanta before heading to Chicago. Go Braves. The Cubs haven’t named a starter for the Friday game yet. Andre Pallante (9-5, 3.83) will be the Cardinals starter. This should be David Peterson’s spot for the Cubs. He is 4-6 with a 5.86 ERA, but looked good in his Cub debut in Milwaukee (5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 2 ER).
The Cubs will seek a sixth straight win and their 16th win in 20 games.
