Several historical trends favor 2-0 teams that start 3-0. That’s what the San Francisco 49ers are striving for this Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.
A loss for an undefeated team in Week 2 is hardly a death knell, as those teams have still made the playoffs at nearly a 62% clip over the past 10 years.
But a Week 3 win that takes you to 3-0 puts you in the same group, and those teams have made the playoffs 73.3% of the time, according to a 10-year study. Even better, you have a 44.4% shot at the division
and a 20% shot at the Super Bowl. That’s right, a one-in-five chance.
History is on the 49ers’ side if they win. It’s a club you want to be a part of. Only 45 teams reached 3-0 in a decade, and three of the last 10 Super Bowl champions were among them.
The Seattle Seahawks also fall under this same category. Seattle takes on the Washington Commanders, who are expected to have Marcus Mariota under center. The Niners and Seahawks are headed for a collision course in a couple of weeks where both teams could enter Week 5 undefeated.
The odds to win the division if you fall to 2-1 only drop roughly 5%. Interestingly enough, 2-1 teams have been more likely to reach the Divisional Round than 3-0 teams (by 4%), but it’s drastically different once you get into the final two rounds of the playoffs. Those 3-0 teams have a 31.1% chance of making the conference championship, compared to a 17.3% chance with a 2-1 record.
The 2018 Patriots are the only Super Bowl champions in the previous ten years to start 1-2. But five of the last six have started 2-1, with the 3-0 Rams as the exception in 2021.
What matters for the 49ers is that a Week 3 win, historically, is a fast track to the playoffs.
