With only one game on the schedule, a convincing win over Wake Forest at home yesterday, Duke did little to improve its own resume this week. Yet, this may be the week that cemented the Blue Devils’ status as a team that “controls its own destiny” for a No.1. seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The Bracketology community has finally gotten on board, with Duke now a consensus No. 1 seed on BracketMatrix.com. Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and UConn are the clear top tier in terms of resumes. But what should have
Blue Devils fans more confident in their path to Selection Sunday is the buffer that is forming between Duke and the next tier of contenders.
A trendy pre-season national title pick, Purdue has now lost back-to-back games, including one at home to a less-than-100% Illinois squad. Yesterday Houston dropped its second game of the year against Texas Tech. Iowa State rebounded this week, but lost back-to-back games themselves the week before. And Gonzaga, despite continuing to win, is having to eke out victories against subpar WCC competition.
Those four squads now have clearly inferior resumes to Duke at this point in the season. Case in point: Duke is 2 Q1 wins clear of all four schools (not to mention all its fellow projected No. 1 seeds). To lose its status on the top line, the Blue Devils would likely have to fall below one of these squads in terms of raw losses and have that gap in Q1 wins close.
But that’s unlikely to happen with the Big 12 and Big 10 contenders still scheduled to face off against each other. Houston still has to play Arizona and Iowa State (not to mention at BYU and Kansas). Iowa State also still has to play Arizona, as well as three additional games against the strong second tier of Big 12 squads. Purdue still has games against Michigan and Michigan State, plus a contest at Nebraska, on the docket.
In fact, it’s likely the upstart Cornhuskers that are the biggest threat to crack the top line—something only a handful of Bracketologists currently project despite Nebraska’s 20-0 record. That undefeated mark is no doubt aided by a subpar non-conference slate that included just one Q1 win, but, buoyed by the Big 10’s strength and some beneficial scheduling, Nebraska’s 6 total Q1 wins are second only to Duke. Upcoming matchups at Michigan and at home versus Illinois and Purdue will give the Cornhuskers a chance to show that they’re the class of the Big 10 and a legitimate contender for a No. 1 seed.
Duke certainly will not go undefeated the rest of the season, but Kenpom only has the Blue Devils as an underdog in one remaining game (against Michigan). Iowa State has two such games, as does Purdue, while Houston has four. The time for scoreboard watching for Duke is likely in the rear-view if they can simply take care of business, because the next tier of No. 1 seed contenders have both fallen clearly behind the Blue Devils and have tougher roads ahead.
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