The Cowboys got back in the win column, and what a way to do it. Their blowout victory on the road over the Jets seems to have inspired some confidence in the team while also soft-launching Dak Prescott’s
MVP campaign. Is it all real, though, or just a symptom of facing the Jets, the only team still without a win this season?
As always, let’s turn to the data for some answers. One thing to note on the DVOA-related grades in this week’s roundup: strength of schedule adjustments have kicked in, though they’re not at full strength yet. Similarly, DAVE grades now account for an even split between DVOA-based preseason projections and actual results. As such, this will be our final week tracking DAVE.
Okay, let’s dive in.
The Cowboys made a considerable jump, going from the 22nd best team in overall efficiency to 15th. They’re now one spot ahead of the 49ers, while their next opponent – the Panthers – sit far below at 24th. Thinking about the division, the Eagles sit at 11th following their first loss of the year, while Washington is fifth.
Let’s focus on DAVE for a moment. The overall DAVE grade is ever-so-slightly higher, suggesting that the Cowboys are just barely behind the curve compared to their most analytically inclined expectations. Much of that has to do with the defense, which showed serious improvement this past week. That may hint at what’s to come.
The EPA-based team tiers offer a blunt assessment of this team right now. They have a sensational offense and a really, really bad defense. Again, Matt Eberflus’ side took a step forward, but it wasn’t much compared to the rest of the season thus far.
Notably, though, the Cowboys fall into the same tier here as the Eagles, 49ers, Chargers, Steelers, and other teams widely considered to be in the playoff hunt. The offense is keeping them afloat, and continued growth on defense could send them rocketing up this chart.
Offense
For the second week in a row, CeeDee Lamb was inactive as he recovers from his ankle injury. And for the second week in a row, the Cowboys saw all of their offensive efficiency metrics go up. This time, with no KaVontae Turpin either, it was Ryan Flournoy who broke out in the passing game.
The real story, though, is the run game. Dallas now leads the league in rushing efficiency by both DVOA and EPA, a monumental achievement considering where the run game was a year ago at this time. Javonte Williams continues to amaze, as he leads the league in both rushing yards over expected (RYOE) and EPA/rush.
As mentioned earlier, the offense continues to get more efficient even with Lamb on the sidelines, and Dak Prescott is a big part of that. His numbers speak for themselves, but let’s look specifically at how he compares to the rest of the league when under pressure: first in completion rate, first in big time throw rate, second in first downs gained, and second in pressure-to-sack ratio.
Prescott is also cooking on play-action, completing a ridiculous 87.3% of those passes without a single turnover; he hasn’t had a turnover worthy play on play-action despite Brian Schottenheimer using the concept at the sixth-highest rate in the league. It’s hard to think of a time where Prescott has looked this comfortable in the backfield.
The elite numbers for Prescott are made even more impressive when you look at his offensive line. Remember the days when losing Tyron Smith for a game meant total offensive ineptitude? Chaz Green certainly remembers. Well, Dallas had four starters out along the offensive line this week, and guess what? Only one player, Nate Thomas, allowed more than one pressure. None of the three interior linemen gave up even one.
The run game is even better, too. To give you an idea of just how effective the Cowboys have been at running the ball in a variety of ways, take a look at this chart.
Defense
So, the season-long numbers moved, but not by much. The Cowboys, by all accounts, still have a very bad defense. But this week’s performance was lightyears better than what they’ve been showing. Consider this: Dallas was eighth in EPA/play allowed in Week 5. Yes, the opponent is a big part of that equation, but that’s meaningful.
Matt Eberflus made some changes to his scheme, and it worked out pretty well. For starters, he blitzed on 24.1% of dropbacks, an uptick from his 21.4% season-long average. That translated to the Cowboys pressuring Justin Fields on 50% of his dropbacks and doubling their team sack total in one afternoon.
Eberflus made two other changes in his coverage schemes, utilizing more man and having his cornerbacks jam at the line more often. That helped out Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam, with the latter putting up a goose egg in the completions column despite four targets; Elam had forced just three incompletions on the year coming into this one.
Then there’s Shemar James, who impressed with 15 tackles after becoming the de facto starter in place of the injured Jack Sanborn. James certainly deserves credit for making the tackle, but it should be pointed out that nine of those tackles came as a result of James giving up a completion. In fact, he allowed completions on all 11 of his targets, offering room for improvement as the rookie grows more comfortable in the league.
