Challenge completed. Challenge overcome. Mission accomplished. The mission was to survive a stretch of 17 games in 17 days with several tough teams thrown in the mix and a couple of division rivals in their home stadiums. You just had to stay in the rear view mirror of the Brewers if you were going to have any shot at the division title and at minimum, you hoped to come out still leading the Wild Card race. On the morning of July 24, the Cubs were 57-45, coming off dropping two of three to the Tigers
at home. They were leading the Wild Card and six games behind the Brewers. After this game against the Royals, they are 69-50, leading the Wild Card race and 5.5 games behind the Brewers. 12-5. No ground lost in the division, ground gained in the Wild Card (and on the other division leaders). That went better than any of us had any right to expect. That result has to be pretty close to the high end of any realistic range of probabilities.
You love to see it. In the middle of that, the Cubs made a bunch of trades. While I did watch all of that unfold via social media, my internet was just lousy enough that I didn’t follow BCB. I’ve not gone back and read anything, so I don’t particularly have a feel for the temperature around here. I tend to believe that BCB readers and particularly BCB commenters tend to be very well informed. We might not all agree on everything, but in most situations, we can see the other side of the argument.
Here are my thoughts. You’ll have watched them play out this year. I tend to land a bit in the land of Cub homer. You probably gather that if you’ve read any quantity of my work. I don’t hide that. I’m proud of my Cub fandom and I’m pretty ride or die with this organization. That doesn’t mean I love everything they do or that I haven’t had wide swaths of time where I didn’t watch this team because I didn’t feel they were fielding a competitive product. As recently as 2021 and 2022 there were long stretches where I didn’t watch any Cub baseball. So I don’t just blindly pass everything they do.
For a long time, you’ve seen what I have written. This was a good team that was tanked by too many injuries to its pitching staff. We all watch the same team. The team is very good, but there is an elite tier of two to five teams and the Cubs aren’t in it. That’s a tough spot to look at the trade deadline and say hey, I’m shoving all of my chips into the center. Trade deadline deals generally involve an overpay in talent. Rarely are truly great players traded. The guys received don’t often swing the outcome of the remainder of the season or even the postseason.
These trades weren’t going to be a magic bullet to have the Cubs overcome the Brewers and win a World Series. But, prospect trades are still prospect trades. Prospects fizzle for all kinds of reasons. Are the deals an overpay? Or do you have to receive a lot of prospects to find a few that work out? The 2021 trades of the remaining core players of the Cubs netted 11 players. Two of those players are still in the Cubs organization, as far as I can tell. One is their best player. The other is their injured closer.
Here’s the thing. The Dodgers and Brewers are pretty clearly the two best teams in baseball. Maybe the Rays are the third, but that doesn’t become a thing until the World Series. The Dodgers and Brewers appear to be so much better than the Cubs that winning more than one playoff series feels like a long shot to say the least. Does that mean you should just fold up shop? When do you project those teams tailing off? Are the Dodgers going to ever take their foot off of the accelerator? Will too much winning get boring to them? The Brewers are in an absolute groove of organizational philosophy, scouting, player development and talent maximization. How long did the Cardinals ride that same groove? It could be a long time before those teams fade into obscurity.
Right here, right now the Cubs have arguably the best group of position players in baseball. Adding Tyrone Taylor makes that group larger and was exactly the kind of move I thought the team should make on the offensive side of the ball. Do I think he’s probably as good as his versus lefty numbers so far this year? Probably not, but as it turns out, he appears to play pretty good outfield defense and also has speed, so he’ll provide an upgrade even if he doesn’t mash lefties. Kevin Gausman almost certainly starts one of the first two postseason games for the Cubs. The other pitching adds lengthen the pitching staff.
I think I counted at one point something like 30 pitchers on major league contracts for this team or with major league experience. A lot of them are hurt and some may not contribute despite the best efforts of the players, coaches and trainers for this organization. But what the Cubs have given themselves is sort of a Dodgers Lite version of a bloated pitching staff that has used the injured list to limit workload. To be clear, you want to be doing it the Dodgers way, resting healthy pitchers with work load type “injuries” that pass the sniff test even though everyone knows they are manipulating the injured list. You certainly don’t want actual injuries with real issues to be worked through.
But, you might get a few Matthew Boyd type returns. Boyd continued to excel in his return to this team during Sunday’s win and has been spectacular. In 2025, he appeared a little gassed after his first fully healthy year in years. This year, he got a lot of time off. Could maybe a few of Daniel Palencia, Edward Cabrera, Justin Steele and Ben Brown help later on? Maybe. Maybe not.
While the Cubs were working with 10-15 injured pitchers at any given time during this season, they tried out a LOT of pitchers this year. Some of them were terrible. But some of them were intriguing. IF, the Cubs can get eight or 10 of their healthy, talented, experienced pitchers grooved in, then they can pick from the best of those intriguing guys and find optimal spots to steal some outs with them down the stretch and into the playoffs.
It’s going to be a very tall task to get to the World Series. We all know that. No one is saying otherwise. You hope to make it to a series with the Dodgers. And then you hope that your team remembers that it stood toe to toe with them on the field in the regular season and did pretty well. A two-time defending champion is going to be different in October than they are in August. But I think you shoot your shot.
I listened to pretty much all of the Lovable Reunion. I heard Anthony Rizzo and Theo Epstein talk at length about the trade deadline. The team watches what you do. They can deflate when you don’t support them. And they can be energized when they see you are showing confidence in them and going for it. I think most of us (and all of those 2015 Cubs) think they were better than the Mets that year. Sometimes you just come up empty in a series. But that can’t happen if you don’t get there. This team has a fighting chance.
Game on.
Three Positives:
- Ian Happ had three hits, one of them his 20th homer of the year. He’s having a little bit of a down year. And he has a plus bat and will be a Gold Glove finalist (and maybe winner) again. Don’t rush him out of town yet.
- Matthew Boyd was excellent. Seven innings, five hits, three walks, two runs. Another win. By Tuesday, the Cubs are going to have relievers looking to get into a game just to stay sharp. What a good problem to have.
- Miguel Amaya had a pair of hits, one a three-run homer. The Cub catchers continue to quietly contribute to this team.
Game 119, August 9: Cubs 10, Royals 2 (69-50)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Ian Happ (.155). 3-5, HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
- Hero: Alex Bregman (.137). 3-6, 2 RBI, R
- Sidekick: Matthew Boyd (.135). 7 IP, 27 BF, 5 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 3 K (W 8-1)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.069). 1-4, BB, R
- Goat: Tyrone Taylor (-.044). 1-5
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.041). 1-5, 2B, BB, 2 R
WPA Play of the Game: Starling Marte’s fourth inning two-run homer cut the Cubs lead to two. (.140)
Cubs Play of the Game: With a runner on first and no outs in the fifth, Matthew Boyd faced Kyle Isbel. Isbel elected to bunt, Boyd caught it and doubled the runner off of first. (.107)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 118 Winner: Ian Happ received 49 of 63 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
I will update the standings before Tuesday’s game.
Up Next: An off day Monday that somehow doesn’t feel immensely important coming out of 17 straight games. Still, a day off in August always feels good on tired arms and legs. On Tuesday, the Cubs will be in Washington to face the 59-61 Nationals who are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card despite three straight wins. I peeked at Fangraphs and boy, have their models on the Cubs changed. Their model now preliminarily favors the Cubs in each of their next 10 games (in addition to their last five). Only a handful of those probabilities are above 60 percent, so you’d still expect to lose a few of those “favored” games. But, Fangraphs likes the Cubs possibility of staying hot.
In the first game of the series, Shōta Imanaga (8-9, 3.60) should start for the Cubs. He’s 3-3 with a 1.77 (40.2) over his last seven. That includes a win over the Dodgers and a tough luck loss to the Yankees. He’s looking like the Cubs third starter come playoff time. The Nationals haven’t announced a starter officially, but this should be Jake Irvin’s (2-5, 5.37) turn. He’s made two starts since returning from a shoulder strain. He beat the Cubs back on March 29th, allowing two runs in five innings. He’s thrown 61 and 83 pitches and is probably pretty good to go for 90ish pitches. He hasn’t gone past 90 pitches a ton this year, even prior to the injury.
The Nationals bullpen is 27th in ERA (4.84), 26th in WHIP (1.44) and 27th in opponent batting average (.271). The Cubs should have some opportunity to win games late in this series if necessary, so don’t give up on a competitive game.
Keep rolling.
