Nashville is a city where dreams are fulfilled and shattered every day. Young country singers flock to the Music City to try and become the industry’s next big star.
Some go on to make platinum records and win awards. Most don’t make it and head home with only a vision of what could have been.
Sixteen teams head to Nashville this week with dreams of being one of the squads that breaks out and becomes a star of March. For a few teams, like Ole Miss and South Carolina, the chances are slim to none. But
Nashville is a crazy town, and it only takes a few great days to strike that big contract with the SEC for an automatic spot on the floor in the Big Dance.
Bridgestone Arena will host the 15 games over five days to decide who gets that spot, starting Wednesday and ending Sunday just hours before the NCAA Tournament field gets unveiled on CBS. The full tournament bracket is below.
As much as Missouri would surely love to make a surprise run to its first SEC Tournament title, the Tigers have more realistic goals that can be reached and have an impact on their standing with the selection committee.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and On3 both have MU as one of the last four teams with a bye into the Round of 64, and a win Thursday would likely ensure Dennis Gates’ squad avoids traveling to Dayton and having to play its way into the regular field.
A loss to Kentucky might make the picture murkier. And a loss to LSU would almost certainly send Mizzou to the First Four, or even place it back squarely on the bubble. But those questions can be put aside permanently with a victory Thursday, and that’s going to be the key thing to watch for with this Tigers team.
Outside of Columbia, there are plenty of other compelling storylines throughout the SEC heading into the conference tournament. We’ll break those down in this preview, starting with MU’s two potential second round opponents and working our way through the branches of the bracket.
All SEC Tournament odds in this article are per BartTorvik.com.
No. 9 Kentucky — 19-12 (10-8)
An early January win at Rupp Arena was one of the first major signs of an eventual turnaround for MU following a shellacking at the hands of Illinois just a few weeks prior to that game. Now, the Tigers seem likely to face the Wildcats for a second time with a chance to finally complete that turnaround by punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
UK has shown signs throughout conference play of the talent that made it a preseason top-10 team, taking down Arkansas, Tennessee and Vanderbilt and keeping it close against some of the SEC’s best. Mark Pope’s squad has also shown why this season has been a massive disappointment to Wildcats fans, dropping a game to a struggling Auburn squad and losing its last two matchups of the regular season.
Kentucky is one of the top rebounding teams in the SEC with the help of forwards Malachi Moreno and Mouhamed Dioubate. Denzel Aberdeen and Collin Chandler provide scoring and perimeter shooting, while Otega Oweh serves as the focal point of the offense as a now multi-time All-SEC honoree.
If Mizzou faces UK in the second round, the Wildcats will be facing a vastly different version of Dennis Gates’ squad from the last time the two sides met up. T.O. Barrett has taken over point guard duties from Anthony Robinson II and center is a far more solid position for MU than it was at the time. The question, then, is if this version of the Tigers is good enough to beat Kentucky for the second time this season, and if they can do so in front of a crowd likely to be full of Wildcats fans in Nashville.
Odds to make the semi-final: 6.4%
No. 16 LSU — 15-16 (3-15)
It’s been quite a rough season for the Bayou Bengals which slots them at the very last seed of the conference tournament. In fact, the Tigers were just two risky overtimes away from only collecting one SEC win. Yes, the only regulation win for LSU came against the Missouri Tigers in January. On the positive side of things, LSU put up a gritty fight in the season finale against the Aggies nearly pulling off a major upset.
If the Tigers display the same aggression, they’ll look to make things interesting against the big and blue Kentucky Wildcats. The two teams met two months ago in Baton Rouge and Kentucky created a game of dramatics with a buzzer beater after trailing by 18 points in the second half.
Across conference statistics, the Bayou Bengals are about smack in the middle for most categories. They shoot 47 percent from the floor, just slightly above their first round opponent, but are below average in perimeter shooting. However, LSU does thrive from the charity stripe, bolstering the third-best mark across all times. The Tiger offense is run through none other than senior Max Mackinnon. In his first year in Baton Rouge, the guard leads the team with 15.3 points per game and shoots 37.8 percent from beyond the arc.
Odds to make the semi-final: 0.8%
No. 1 Florida — 25-6 (16-2)
Opening up SEC play, the Missouri Tigers shocked the world by taking down the Florida Gators in Columbia. It still ranks as one of the most impressive wins and resume builders for the Tigers. Clearly, UF had no problem shaking off the loss and have marched on to become SEC regular season champions. Additionally, AP just named Todd Golden SEC Coach of the Year with Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu all picking up accolades of their own.
Haugh leads the team on offense with just north of 17 points per game while also using his height on the boards. The junior, most likely to head to the NBA at the conclusion of the year, has quickly melded into the starting rotation bringing size and high basketball IQ to set the tone for the Gator offense.
After the loss to Mizzou, the Gators only dropped one more game to another group of roaring Tigers: Auburn. However, those games were both in January. Golden has shaped an offense that has since been on an 11-game win streak, picked up three ranked wins and does not plan on stopping anytime soon. The Gators will have time to rest and reset with a double-bye that will not put them into action until Friday.
If Mizzou wins its first game, they will be the lucky winners to face a team looking to chomp its way to tournament champions. Over the last two months, the Tiger offense has gone through hills and valleys and MU will be squaring up against a refined, well-oiled machine in Florida. But who is to say lightning can’t strike twice?
Odds to win the championship: 48.9%
No. 4 Vanderbilt — 24-7 (11-7)
The Commodores have taken another step forward this season under Mark Byington and are the winners of two straight entering the conference tournament. They’ll also have the benefit of a hometown crowd for what could be a third matchup with Tennessee in as many weeks if the bracket goes chalk and the Vols end up in the quarterfinals.
Vanderbilt dropped the first matchup in Nashville but got revenge in the season finale on the road, also recording wins over Ole Miss and Georgia alongside a loss to Kentucky in between the two matchups. For more on the ‘Dores, here’s our preview of their matchup with Mizzou a few weeks ago.
One notable change for Vanderbilt since that game: the return of star guard Duke Miles to the lineup. Miles is the team’s second-leading scorer behind Tyler Tanner, forming a dynamic backcourt duo. He also provides the Commodores with valuable postseason experience, both in the SEC Tournament with Oklahoma and in March Madness last year. If MU advances to the semifinals, it could end up facing a Vanderbilt team with one of its key players back and looking for revenge in front of a friendly crowd..
Odds to win the championship: 10.0%
No. 5 Tennessee — 21-10 (11-7)
Rick Barnes’ squad enters the SEC Tournament having lost three of its last four, a streak that began with its loss to Mizzou, and the only win came against South Carolina. The Volunteers’ final game of the regular season was a 86-82 loss to Vanderbilt, setting up the potential third round of the matchup. That loss also came without Tennessee’s best forward, Nate Ament, who is expected to be back this week.
For more on the Vols, you can read our preview from their game against the Tigers in late February.
Odds to win the championship: 7.5%
No. 12 Auburn — 16-15 (7-11)
The Tigers have arguably the most to gain, and the most to lose, of any team in Nashville. Auburn is hovering right on the cut line of the field entering this week, and a loss Wednesday to Mississippi State could sink its tournament hopes. Steven Pearl’s squad is also at the mercy of bid stealers, meaning they likely need at least two wins to feel comfortable about securing a bid.
Auburn went 2-8 over its final 10 games of the regular season, scoring a much-needed win over Kentucky but dropping games to the Bulldogs and Ole Miss, after a 5-3 start to conference play. The Tigers rank third in the SEC with 13.4 offensive rebounds per game but also stand in last place with an average of 22.7 defensive rebounds. Some of that is due to the team’s questionable defense that ranks last in the SEC in both opponent field-goal percentage (.466) and three-point field goal percentage (.369).
Luckily for Auburn, Mississippi State ranks 13th in the SEC with a .326 three-point field goal percentage, and Tennessee (its potential second round opponent) is middle of the pack at .338. But that vulnerability would likely be exposed if AU faces Vanderbilt in the quarterfinals, one of the best shooting squads in the SEC and a team that went just under 35 percent from beyond the arc during its win over the Tigers earlier this year. If Auburn can reach the quarterfinals, though, the pressure should be mostly off and the team will have a good chance at another tournament bid.
Odds to make the semi-final: 5.6%
No. 13 Mississippi State — 13-18 (5-13)
The Bulldogs have hit a big bump in the road since winning back-to-back games against Ole Miss and Auburn, losing five straight contests heading into the SEC Tournament. That includes defeats of more than 20 points to Alabama, Florida and Mizzou.
Mississippi State is a long way removed from its 2-0 start to conference play, and Chris Jans’ squad would have to go through a motivated Auburn team, Tennessee and Vanderbilt to reach the semifinals to potentially meet up with MU. It’s unlikely the Bulldogs make it past Thursday, but their matchup Wednesday with Auburn could turn out to be one of the most important games of the week.
Odds to make the semi-final: 0.4%
No. 2 Alabama — 23-8 (13-5)
Mizzou’s loss to Alabama came at quite at a controversial time in college basketball with Charles Bediako still on the Tide’s roster. Since the two teams met in late January, Alabama no longer has the big man on the roster and they’ve only dropped two games.
As of recent, the Tide have picked up big ranked wins against Arkansas and Tennessee as well as a hard fought rivalry win against the Auburn Tigers. However, they did lose one game last week on the road against Georgia.
As a whole, Alabama is a powerhouse of an offense with a league-leading 92 points per game. They average the highest amount of three-pointers in the league and on the defensive side of things average a steady amount of rebounds but don’t often cause their opponents to turn the ball over often. On the individual side of things, Labaron Philon Jr. leads the team with 21.5 points per game.
As the 2-seed, Alabama is another recipient of the double bye in the conference. If Georgia wins its first game, the two teams will square off for the second time in as many weeks but the Tide will have a layer or revenge under its skin. While they don’t have the highest chance to win the whole thing, they’ll be a team to keep an eye on.
Odds to win the championship: 14.1%
No. 7 Georgia — 22-9 (10-8)
Earning a first round bye, the Georgia Bulldogs are currently eyeing an 8-seed heading into the NCAA Tournament, but first they will look to create some action in the conference tournament. Heading into Nashville, the Dawgs have been cruising. Currently, they hold a 3-game win streak and upset No. 16 Alabama in Athens one week ago.
The Bulldogs have turned into an offensive force to be reckoned with, averaging at least 90 points per game. Propelling such a high scoring Georgia team is the fact that they drop an average of 9 three’s a game. Oftentimes it’s more than that as they hit 17 against the A&M Aggies a few days ago. The Bulldogs have been able to generate a scoring punch in spreading the offense to find open perimeter opportunities and are quite comfortable attacking the rim too.
Who drives the bus of the offense? Georgia has been led all season by a few different guards and four of its players sit in the double digit averages. Jeremiah Wilkinson sits out front with 17.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Marcus “Smurf” Millender and Kanon Catchings operate a lethal three system which sees their averages near 40 percent. And obviously you can’t count out Somto Cyril and Blue Cain to make their mark on the glass and scoresheet.
Buckle up folks, it’ll be a thrilling match against the Longhorns.
Odds to make the final: 8.3%
No. 10 Texas — 18-13 (9-9)
Outside of Auburn, there might not be another team that has more at stake in the SEC Tournament than Texas. The Longhorns are currently in the same boat as Mizzou, sitting among the last four byes into the Round of 64, but could be be relegated to the First Four with a first round loss to Ole Miss in Nashville — if not find themselves on the wrong side of the cut line entirely, depending on bid stealers.
Texas nearly removed any remaining worries when it forced overtime Saturday during a late comeback attempt against Oklahoma, but the Sooners managed to escape Austin with the win. The Longhorns have lost four of their last five, entering the week in a bit of a slump, but should only need a victory Wednesday to accomplish their main objective in Nashville. That fact, combined with UT’s positioning on the other side of the bracket, makes a second matchup with Mizzou highly unlikely.
Odds to make the semi-final: 9.4%
No. 15 Ole Miss — 12-19 (4-14)
The Rebels have shown some fight and feistiness heading into the SEC Tournament, dealing a serious blow to Auburn’s postseason chances with an upset on the road and losing its last two games by a combined six points. That included an 89-86 loss to Vanderbilt in Oxford, though Ole Miss has also dropped recent games to fellow SEC cellar dwellers in LSU and South Carolina.
But Chris Beard’s squad will have a tough path in Nashville, starting with a Texas team that’s fighting to hold onto one of the final at-large bids for the NCAA Tournament and could find itself on the outside looking in if it loses Wednesday. Consider the Rebels another team unlikely to make much noise this week.
Odds to make the semi-final: 1.4%
No. 3 Arkansas — 23-8 (13-5)
This season, all fans need to learn about to understand Arkansas’s identity is to google Darius Acuff Jr. On Monday, he became just the third player to be named SEC Player of the Year and SEC Freshman of the Year. Plus, he leads the conference with 22.2 points per game and also sits ninth in the country in the same category.
Under Calipari, the Hogs have become a much stronger force in the conference. Last year, the head coach undertook a roster with no returners, now he’s putting out a full team capable of creating a night for the record books all the way from freshman to veterans.
In an overtime thriller against Mizzou, the Hogs finished off the season with another tally in the win column. It was a much needed reset win for the Razorbacks to get back on track heading into a conference do-or-die scenario.
For more on Arkansas, you can read our preview from Mizzou’s regular season finale against the Razorbacks.
Odds to win the championship: 12.4%
No. 6 Texas A&M — 21-10 (11-7)
The odds for Texas A&M to make the final or win the SEC title drop sharply from the five teams seeded above it, and for good reason. The Aggies have been a surprising and solid group this season, but they’ve been unable to collect a win against the upper echelon of the conference despite coming close against Alabama and Tennessee. That struggle to notch a top-tier victory is why A&M is a projected 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament and has just barely stayed away from the bubble.
Texas A&M is also a team that lives and dies by the three, boasting the third-highest three-point field goal percentage in the SEC on one of the nation’s highest numbers of average attempts from beyond the arc. That naturally adds volatility to the team’s performance, and also sets up an intriguing possible second round matchup with an Oklahoma team that ranks just ahead of the Aggies in three-point field goal percentage.
A&M’s offensive engine, though, is forward Rashaun Agee, who serves as the team’s main paint presence and helps create space for their many shooters. That strategy isn’t as well suited to face SEC squads with elite big men, though, likely capping the team’s ceiling in the postseason. Watch for a potential matchup with the Sooners in the second round — it’s a game with serious upset potential.
Odds to make the final: 9.1%
No. 11 Oklahoma —17-14 (7-11)
The Sooners head to Nashville as one of the hottest teams in the conference right now, winners of their last four games and six of their last eight. An NCAA Tournament bid remains highly unlikely for OU (no matter what the broadcasts for OU’s recent games have said), but it could force the selection committee to make some tough decisions if it continues its recent form and goes on a deep run.
Oklahoma’s roster is full of talented and experienced veterans, including Nijel Pack, who played a key role in Miami’s run to the Final Four back in 2023. Porter Moser is no stranger to making a deep run in March, either, though he’s been unable to replace his success at Loyola Chicago down in Norman.
The odds of the Sooners reaching the finals, which is what they’d probably need to do for a chance at the NCAA Tournament, are slim. But stranger things have happened at this time of year, and Oklahoma feels like a sleeper team to watch this week.
Odds to make the semi-final: 9.0%
No. 14 South Carolina — 13-18 (4-14)
Barring one of the unlikeliest matchups in the history of the SEC Tournament, the Tigers and Gamecocks will not face each other in Nashville. South Carolina’s only conference wins came against Oklahoma before the Sooners’ late season turnaround, LSU, Ole Miss and Mississippi State.
Even if USC sends Oklahoma packing in the first round, it will run into a Texas A&M team the next day that it lost to by 23 points earlier in the season. South Carolina has shown few signs of life against higher quality SEC opponents this year, and the Gamecocks are likely to to see their season end Wednesday.
Odds to make the semi-final: 0.7%
Conclusion
All season fans wait in anticipation of these March tournaments and the trials and tribulations that comes alongside it.
While the Florida Gators hold the highest odds to walk away victorious there are other juggernauts in the mix fixing to shake things up. The SEC has proven that on any given night anyone can rise to the occasion. From seniors vying to keep their seasons alive to teams peaking at the right time, there’s no shortage of programs capable of shaking things up.
On Wednesday in Nashville the playoff madness begins.
