The 2026 Buccaneers will not die. After starting our 0-4 and being (rightfully) written off. They are less than two games out of first place with a tiebreaker over the NFC South’s top-ranked Carolina Panthers and a matchup against the only other team ahead of them this week in the Atlanta Falcons.
How can the Buccaneers win?
Pressure Micheal Penix.
The Atlanta Falcons are 3-4 on the season, however, they are 3-2 in games where Michael Penix starts. Penix hasn’t been the immediate, no doubt answer the Falcons hoped
he would be when they drafted him with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, but he has been a sign of hope at quarterback for the organization, in limited action. Penix has only played in 19 games across three NFL seasons—He sat most of his rookie season and he has missed 12 career games due to injury.
The 2026 version of Michael Penix has done a phenomenal job protecting the football, Penix has thrown nine touchdowns and has just one interception so far this season. The Falcons’ QB has been good, not great. The delineation comes from the clear hole that currently exists in his game. The ability to deal with pressure.
Michael Penix has simply been a different player when he is under pressure. When facing no pressure, Penix looks like an all-star— +0.62 EPA per dropback, which is a mark that’s good for 2nd best in the entire league.
Under the gun, it’s been a different story— Penix has a significnat dip in EPA, checking in at -0.82 per dropback. There is no starter who has posted a lower overall EPA in 2026, than Penix under pressure. Penix has gone 1-16 when pressured this year— He is the only starting passer with a completion rate under 30%. This makes the gameplan clear for Tampa Bay. Pressure Penix and he will struggle, give him time in the pocket and he will test Tampa’s coverage.
One of Atlanta’s clear keys to victory, this week and moving forward, will be protection of Michael Penix. Penix has proven to be a completely different plyer when he has a strong pocket to work with versus when navigating breakdowns in protection. This may be tied to his injury history or it may just be a part of his story as a payer. Either way, for Tampa Bay to advance to 3-5, it must be a part the story Sunday.
How can the Buccaneers lose?
Try to duplicate last week’s performance.
Last week, the Buccaneers played football like they were the 2009 New York Jets. While it was a fantastic win and quite a game to watch, that style of play is not going to be sustainable back-to-back weeks. The Buccaneers can certainly run the football and lean on their offensive line but the imbalance of 49 runs to 11 passes won’t consistently win in the modern NFL. Baker Mayfield’s thumb will be tested against the Atlanta Falcons.
Last week, Tampa was aided by a Carolina turnover frenzy (4) and no caught the Panthers by surprise with their unwavering dedication to the run. This week, the Falcons will have no illusions about what Tampa Bay is doing and what they are trying to be. The Bucs’ offensive line is getting a lot of credit for rounding into shape and becoming what many with a vested interest in the Buccaneers hoped they would be. Even if that is true, a near 50-rush attempt game, for the second consecutive week, is not a viable path to victory.
The Falcons rank fourth in the league in rush defense. Jeff Ulbrich’s group only allows an average of 88.9 yards per game. That doesn’t mean the Buccaneers can’t get their running game going this week, but it does mean Baker Mayfield will need to do more than hand the ball off for Tampa to take victory.
The Buccaneers should be proud of what they accomplished last week and take that performance’s mentality into this week, as well as the rest of their season, however, they will have demonstrate that they understand mentality does not equal gameplan.
