Anyone can make predictions. Some even take a victory lap when they are right about something. But I’m a big believer in looking back and reflecting on what you got wrong as much as what you got right. I’ve learned so much more from my mistakes than my successes that I joke that I have a Masters degree in mistakes.
Which is why I like to make it a practice to look back at my previous season’s preview articles and pick them apart. Below are some cherry picked quotes from this article as well as my current
day reactions to those words.
Mind the gap: Boston Celtics season preview
The range of possibilities for this team is broad and varied. Everything is on the table from Jayson Tatum returning to lead them to a deep postseason run to a tanking season where most of the starting lineup gets shut down for the last couple of months. On some level the results are largely secondary to the main plot. This is a gap year (even if Tatum miraculously returns) where every focus should be on which pieces fit the roster in 2026-27 and beyond.
You could call this a cop out by throwing up my hands in the air and saying “anything could happen.” However, I think there was enough mystery surrounding the team that it was a valid standpoint at the time. As it turned out, the regular season was a shockingly positive experience and the postseason was surprisingly negative.
The team can push back on the “gap year” terminology all they want, but actions speak louder than words.
Indeed, the team’s actions spoke louder than any of my words. I figured it was going to be a year for development at the expense of wins and losses. Joe Mazzulla, Jaylen Brown, and the rest of the team simply asked “why not both?”
The biggest name arriving in Boston as a newcomer is Anfernee Simons (as part of the Jrue Holiday deal). He’s a very talented scorer that should have a large role on the team this season. Of course he’s also a free agent at the end of the year and could be a trade candidate before the deadline.
Yeah, the writing was on the wall there. In another column I correctly predicted that fans would eventually appreciate and get excited about keeping Simons around long term, …only to watch Stevens trade him at the deadline.
This squad has a more youthful look, which can lead to higher variance in outcomes, but it could also lead to a deeper bench with some intriguing talents and skillsets. Minott and González provide wing athleticism, Garza is a talented offensive big, and both Baylor Scheierman and Jordan Walsh will get opportunities to contribute. Chris Boucher is the elder statesman of the team (32), but he provides bounce and shooting to the bigs rotation.
It wasn’t too long before the depth sorted itself out. Boucher became a non-factor almost right away. Garza had some real good stretches (though he was better suited as a 3rd big, not a primary backup and occasional starter). On the wing they gave Minott a few chances early on. But it was really Gonzalez, Walsh, and Scheirman that separated themselves from the wing group.
Mazzulla’s solution seems to be to pick up the pace, putting pressure on opposing defenses with athleticism and shooting. The lack of proven bigs could lead to struggles on the boards and internal defense, which is why Joe is benching guys in preseason for missing rebounding assignments.
One of the most unexpected developments over the course of last season was how rebounding went from an expected glaring weakness to a real strength of this team. Mazzulla set the tone in training camp and it paid off. Imagine what they’ll do this next year with two monster bigs gobbling up boards. I just hope that the wings don’t stop crashing the boards.
The team needs to be hyper-focused on the horizon — a growth mentality, encouraging learning through mistakes has to be preached from the top down. It’s process over results, continual progress, and growth at every level. Whatever it takes to set this team up for success when Tatum returns.
I think the team did a fantastic job on developing the younger talent and encouraging growth from the top end talent as well. So much so that they entered the playoffs as one of the favorites to compete for the title. Then, of course, they fell directly on their collective faces.
The front office needs to identify who is going to be here long term, and maximize their returns for anyone that isn’t.
Yeah, the front office wasn’t shy about that. But that’s another topic for another column.
Through it all, I do think it is important to continue a culture of focus on winning and developing good, lasting habits. I’m not in favor of full-on tanking or coasting unless legitimate injuries force the team to focus on development in the last month or two.
The Celtics seem to have agreed with me. The team got very good injury luck, including Tatum’s remarkably fast return. The only way they could have tanked would have been to trade Jaylen Brown last offseason. That’s kind of a sliding doors decision, but we’ll see how it turns out.
On one hand, Brad Stevens should probably look to duck completely out of the tax if only to reset the clock on the repeater penalties. On the other hand, he should also keep an eye out for adding talent as it becomes available, even if it means increasing the payroll and taxes.
…
So I’m predicting that they make a trade around the deadline that probably sheds some salary but also brings back a decent center option (don’t ask me who that is, my crystal ball is hazy at best on this). That might mean dealing Simons (which, as I predicted in the SWAGs, will upset some people by the deadline). Beyond that, I think they’ll save more impactful trades (using the TPE?) for next offseason.
Stevens was able to duck under the tax by offloading Simons for Nikola Vucevic. That move didn’t really help the team on the court, but in theory it should give them …optionality… in the future.
If you forced me to predict the number of wins for this season, I’d guess 40 with an exaggerated shrug. I could see 35, and I could see 47. As I said above, I don’t really think it matters (aside from some draft position impacts). All that really matters are Tatum’s recovery and the way the team develops in his absence.
Oof, so much for patting myself on the back for good predictions. I was only off by 16 wins. Of course, then they went out and lost to the 45 win Sixers. So clearly something was missing.
So that’s my look back at last year’s rollercoaster. Stay tuned for my preview for the upcoming season – which is guaranteed to be full of mistakes or miscalculations that I’ll be able to look back and laugh at a year from now.
