Of the last 20 games of Boston’s regular season, 13 featured a starting lineup of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Sam Hauser and Neemias Queta.
Despite Tatum’s late entry into the lineup, that 5-man combo is third in total minutes together this year, sporting a +7 net scoring advantage (per 100 possessions). It’s a lineup that figures to transition over into Boston’s first round series with the Philadelphia 76ers, which tips off Sunday afternoon and is the fourth postseason meeting between
the two in the Jays era.
We have a good read on who’s starting these games, but figuring out the overall rotation is a different story. All season, we’ve seen experimentation that’s led to a good problem: the Celtics have an abnormal amount of playoff-caliber talent waiting in the wings.
In last year’s 11 postseason games, the Celtics had nine players average more than 10 minutes. The year prior, the title run featured the same: nine players. It was one player less in the 2022-23 postseason, with Grant Williams having the lowest of the eight rotation guys with 17.7 minutes per game.
With the margin of error so thin, there’s no time to waste when it comes to playoff minutes. If struggles extend beyond a game, the hook is coming, and the chance to check back in may not be there waiting for you.
In this regular season, Boston had 16 players average minutes in double figures. Three of those guys are no longer Celtics and another (Dalano Banton) had a four-game sample size, but when you take a step back, you see that the Celtics, really, have 12 players on this roster that are capable of leaving a positive impact in a postseason series, however big or small that impact ultimately is.
I guess it’s fortunate that we don’t have to make the decision of who gets those bench opportunities or who rides the pine, but let’s assume each of their primary bench players had that opportunity. What would they do with it? What role or objective allows them to impact the game the greatest against the 76ers? Let’s take a crack at it, and find out.
For the sake of time and grounded rotational possibilities, we’ll leave the deep bench guys (Amari Williams, Max Shulga, John Tonje, Delano Banton) out of this exercise. If you have to resort to playing one of three second round rookies or a guy just signed to a contract right before the end of the season, chances are the season’s probably going down sooner rather than later.
Payton Pritchard
A glorified starter and a shoe-in for major usage, there’s not much mystery of the role Payton Pritchard will have against Philly, and beyond.
Since his move back to the Sixth Man spot, Pritchard has averaged roughly the same amount of minutes, shot attempts, points per game and assists as his overall season averages, finishing with 17 points, 5 assists and 3 rebounds in 29 games that began as the first player off the bench.
In four games against Philly, PP actually struggled in the scoring department. He was a combined 13-of-31 in the first two games in October, getting the last two looks in their close season-opening loss, and 2-of-13 in their last two games. From three, he shot just 12% for the series.
Not exactly numbers you’d expect from Pritchard, and strangely enough, this is a matchup that particularly favors his scoring style. The 76ers boast a middle of the road defense (16th in defensive rating) and lineups that often feature two traditional guards. All four of their most-used 5-man lineups feature both Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe.
For Pritchard, that means opportunities in the mid-range.
At 42% in the mid-range and 56% in the non-restricted area this year, Pritchard has been one of the league’s finest shot-creators inside and around the free throw line, utilizing his powerful build to initiate contact in order to create space.
According to data from Basketball Index, he’s in the 100th percentile in mid-range openness rating, the 98th percentile in stable short mid-range field goal efficiency, and the 97th percentile in mid-range pull up shot-making efficiency.
Boston will be searching for plenty of 2-on-1 advantages to set up rotations and open looks from deep, but Pritchard could really use this series to pack a serious punch in the heart of Philadelphia’s defense.
Nikola Vučević
Vooch or the Garzilla? That is the question on everybody’s minds.
With Vučević sidelined mere moments after sharing the court with Jayson Tatum, his return has been the subject of scrutiny. Particularly in his first two games back in the lineup, Vooch just looked like a player out of sync with his new teammates. Understandable, considering he’s played just 16 games with the Celtics, but with limited time to find a groove before the playoffs, it’s impossible not to look at the constant energy and spark that Garza consistently provides.
This is probably the toughest decision Joe Mazzulla has to make rotation-wise, and with a likely Embiid-less Philly now locked in as the matchup, the answer could really go either way.
By route of Vučević, I believe it comes down to matchups. The smaller Adem Bona makes more sense for Garza, and the rebound-engulfing Andre Drummond makes more sense for Vooch.
With Drummond, Vooch can not only match up better on the defensive glass, but his passing and shooting from above the break would effectively pull Drummond out of the paint, or risk leaving open a shooter with an eye for finding cutters.
Perhaps it’s a worthwhile gamble with Vooch shooting 31% from three in his four games back. He also ended 5-of-9 in his last two games though. The Sixers would likely be willing to take that gamble, if at least for a game or two.
While Garza has made massive strides as a shooter, Vooch remains the closest thing Boston has to the pick-and-pop threat that breaks down zones and crushes soft switches. If he can find consistency in his outside game, it opens up a similar offensive wrinkle left behind by the departures of Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis.
A huge question will be how Boston can help, or even hide, Vooch when it comes to defending the pick-and-roll. Vooch plays one of the deepest drops in the league, and with someone like Maxey getting downhill, that doesn’t bode well for Boston. There’s a lot at play for the backup big minutes when Queta’s off the floor.
Ready or not, Vooch will more than likely get the first shot behind Queta, and flashes of his rebounding, pick-and-pop shooting, and ball movement will go a long way in cementing him as an every game contributor this postseason.
Luka Garza
While we’re on the topic of the backup big, Boston couldn’t have lucked out more with the signing of Luka Garza last summer. He’s been a consummate professional, an outstanding offensive rebounder and screener (98th percentile in offensive rebounding talent, 99th percentile in screening talent), and an efficient 3-point shooter (43%) on respectable volume.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that if Garza stepped foot on the floor in a playoff setting, he’d find a way to add extra possessions and open things up for others. Similar to Vooch, the problem lies in how he holds up defensively. While a fine mobile big that moves well in space, Garza does not scare drivers attacking the basket in the way someone like Queta, or even Tatum might. Mismatch hunting is all the rage in a Best-of-7 series, and like Vooch, I’d expect the Sixers to actively seek out Garza as much as possible.
With the Bona matchup, you’re pitting two mobile bigs against each other, but Garza has the leg up as a rebounder and as a scorer, with his 3-point shot legit enough to force Bona in space. If there’s anything we can take away from either Vooch or Garza, it’s that both have the ability to shoot away from the basket or open up sets with a handoff.
While Vooch would be better equipped to be surrounded by cutters and screen-navigators like Derrick White, Hugo Gonzalez and Jordan Walsh to make use of his hub playmaking and drop coverage defensive style, I like the idea of Garza working with the stars, particularly Tatum. With JT, Boston’s better equipped to defend the paint, while giving him and Brown that patented flair screen, floor-switching ability that Queta and Garza have both thrived in thanks to their elite screen-setting.
Different contexts create different reasons to go with either big man off the bench. With Philly, there’s a good chance both will see an opportunity.
Jordan Walsh
I wrote about it back in November, and I’m sure you’ll see more of it this weekend, but to be succinct: Jordan Walsh has the makings of a Maxey stopper.
Walsh probably would have found a role in the rotation even with Orlando “winning” the 7-seed (hey, Walsh has locked up Paolo Banchero too!) but this matchup between All-Star and breakout role player feels destined.
To be clear, Walsh can do more for this team than stay glued to their best scorer. He’d get minutes because he’s a good shooter despite a fluctuating role (38%, 1.8 attempts per game), and a fantastic rebounder and putback threat.
But for this series in particular, having someone off the bench that held Philly’s top scorer to 1-of-10 shooting between two games and 7:10 matchup minutes is a luxury I fully expect Mazzulla to utilize. Walsh has the length to disrupt around screens and the recovery speed to stay in front, while being a menacing contest threat thanks to his 7’3” wingspan.
There’s a clear path to significant minutes for Walsh, and a lot of it has to do with making life hell for Philly’s best scorer.
Baylor Scheierman
After a 3-minute appearance in the Halloween victory over the 76ers, Baylor Scheierman didn’t play Philly again until their very last meeting, one that started with a thumbs up and ended in a Celtics victory.
Scheierman has firmly cemented himself as a key rotation player this year, turning the corner after some tough shooting in the Summer League and preseason to end Year 2 with splits of 45/40/90.
What’s keeping Scheierman on the floor is more than his shooting though. He’s been a true jack of all trades, defending and rebounding at a high level while adding a connective tissue to the offense thanks to his ability to create off the dribble and open up the drive-and-kick game.
As far as the ideal lineups featuring Scheierman, it’s likely the one we’re most familiar with.
Among all 5-man lineup combos featuring Scheierman, the one that more than doubles every other combination in minutes on the floor includes White, Brown, Hauser and Queta. That lineup, which started seven games, was a +10.8 in scoring, featuring a balanced attack of top-option JB surrounded by three shooting options, two of which like to create off the dribble, and a rim-running big.
For the non-Tatum minutes, this appears to be one of the better options to maintain a balanced offense. Adding in a wrinkle like Pritchard for White would also be an option that maintains scoring balance and ample ball movement (that lineup with Pritchard in for White played just 34 minutes together, but was a +40.3 in that time).
Because Scheierman can do so many things well, it makes him a one-size-fits-all type of rotation piece that can work in a variety of different settings.
Hugo González
With their wing depth as strong as it is, a path to minutes appears murky for the sensational Spaniard, but Hugo Gonzalez wouldn’t need all that much time to make a difference.
Similar to Scheierman and Walsh, Hugo’s ability to contribute as a rebounder, cutter and defender makes him the rare 20-year-old that’s built for the bigger moments. Compound that with respectable 3-point shooting and you’d feel confident that, if left open, he can at least threaten to punish the Sixers for the lack of respect.
I think the ideal scenario for Hugo to see time is in the moments where the momentum needs to shift.
Offense bogged down by contested misses and turnovers? Defense struggling to stop the pick-and-roll? Momentum timeouts aren’t stopping the bleeding?
May I suggest the controlled chaos that is Hugo Gonzalez?
Even if for just a few minutes, I think Gonzalez injects the right level of high-effort defense to rally around and throw out there for short spurts. That way, Philly doesn’t get as much of an opportunity to dare the rookie to beat them as a shooter in the same way you’d see if he played a more substantial game-to-game role.
There’s going to be a time very soon where Hugo will be very high on the playoff pecking order, but that time shouldn’t have to be today. Although if we’re being honest, he’s much closer than I think anyone could have expected on draft day.
Ron Harper Jr.
While it’s unlikely Ron Harper Jr. sees the floor this postseason, I’d honestly feel confident in his abilities if he did.
And a lot of that has to do with his first impression: a debut start focused heavily on defending Kevin Durant. RHJ showcased his strength as a defender, his instincts as a rebounder, and his catch-and-shoot ability (I feel like I’ve been saying that with every wing, but it remains true all the same).
If there were to be an opportunity for Harper, I’d consider it a look focused on the 3&D mold of his game. The threes would largely come off the catch, adding additional spacing while guys like Brown or Tatum ignite the drive-and-kick, while the D would be spent on another tough assignment: Paul George.
Is that a gamble? Or too much for Harper in his first playoff appearance? Possibly. But then again, wasn’t that also the case with KD in his debut?
It’s not like we’re dealing with the Paul George of old, though he’s certainly had a quietly solid season as he transitions into life as an overpaid, high-end role player.
If that’s the path to opportunity, I don’t think we’d be hearing any complaints from Ron.
