The Hawkeyes dominated the Badgers in Wisconsin a week ago. Now it’s time to return home to Kinnick to take on the #2 Penn State Nittany Lions.
**Wait, I’ve just received some important information. I’m
now being told that Penn State is NOT #2. They’re now…. is this right? They are unranked and winless in the Big Ten??**
That’s right, the 3-3 Nittany Lions head to Iowa City without their Heisman hopeful QB or their head coach. With the changes and the recent stumbles, the Hawkeyes opened as 1.5-point favorites over on FanDuel Sportsbook this week. That was before the announcement of James Franklin’s firing. Since then, the line moved up to Iowa -3.5 with an over/under set at 38.5 total points.
As of Friday, things have settled a bit with the Hawkeyes now favored by 2.5 points with the over/under climbing to 40.5 total points. Here at The Pants, we’re riding the hype train and are once again feeling optimistic about the Hawks.
On average, we’re calling for Iowa to win 21-16. While not all of us are call for the Hawkeyes to cover, we’re all on Iowa to win outright. What could go wrong?!?
That does put us firmly on the under, which is in line with last week’s trend. Speaking of last week, the staff bounced back a week ago, going 2-0 with our picks against Wisconsin. We’re now 5-7 on the year and looking to get back to even.
Here’s a look at our individual predictions for Saturday’s matchup.
Individual Staff Predictions
JPinIC
It’s really easy for me to see this playing out one of two ways. On the one hand, teams tend to rally around an interim coach and the firing of James Franklin could be just what this team needed. See: UCLA. Terry Smith has been one of the lead recruiters for the Nittany Lions and most of these players wouldn’t be in Happy Valley if they hadn’t bought was Smith was selling so the idea that they come together and play well on Saturday night is very real. This roster is better than Iowa’s. It just is. There’s a reason this was a top-5 team early in the season. If they are fired up and executing, they’ll beat Iowa without a ton of issue.
But on the other hand, this is a team that could just as easily fall apart. While Drew Allar wasn’t performing up to the Heisman hype, he was a good college QB who is now replaced with a RS freshman making his first career start on the road at Kinnick at night. And Kinnick is still thirsting for blood after having their scalp slip away at the last minute against Indiana. It’s just as easy for me to see this crowd and this defense come out and completely rattle Grunkemeyer to the tune of a couple turnovers that allow Iowa to play Kirk’s preferred style of game and win a close one without really doing much satisfying on the offensive side of the ball.
I want to believe so that’s where I’m going this week.
Iowa 20, Penn State 17
Greg Hollingsworth
Penn State is a wounded animal atm, and sometimes wounded animals are the most dangerous. James Franklin may be gone, but everything else is pretty much status quo. Terry Smith is the recruiting coordinator, Cornerbacks coach, and was the Associate Head Coach before moving into the interim HC role for the Nittany Lions. Andy Kotelnicki is still calling the plays and Jim Knowles is still running the defense (which is their biggest weak spot atm), so the continuity should help them weather Franklin’s firing. The biggest question mark here is Ethan Grunkemeyer, a redshirt freshman making his first collegiate start in a hostile environment, at night. The staff has been high on Grunkemeyer, but we all know (maybe better than any other fanbase) that being great in practice is not the same as being great without that red schimmel.
Given Phil Parker’s newfound penchant for blitzes, I have to imagine that Grunkemeyer will be under pressure A LOT on Saturday evening, and we all know it’s going to be very, very loud. Combine that with Penn State’s underperforming defense and there’s a very clear path to victory for the Hawks (and it never hurts to beat a marquee brand, even in a down year). If Mark Gronowski is at 90-95% and the OLine can win the battle in the trenches, there’s every reason to predict an Iowa victory, but this doesn’t feel like a blowout scenario (and the sharps agree). The predicted core here is Iowa 21, Penn State 17.5, and that feels just about right, though I cannot envision a Kirk Ferentz coached game against PSU without at least one field goal, so I guess I’m on the boys to cover and hit the over.
Iowa 24, Penn State 17
GingerHawk
With Franklin gone the Nittany Lions have to find a path forward minus one head coach and lugging three straight losses behind them. A trip to Kinnick Stadium is not the best place to be in that situation. I know many Hawk fans are a little sick of the late kickoffs but Penn State at Iowa just screams night game to me. It’ll be very interesting to see what type of PSU team we get. Will they be a broken team continuing their downward spiral or one that feels like they have a chance to reset their season like so many of my NCAA Football dynasties?
Missing a head coach and with an inexperienced quarterback already puts Penn State in a bad spot. That stability and guidance both Franklin and Allar provided is gone when it’s desperately needed. But the Lions are still incredibly talented and many of those players have been in raucous environments before. The script for Iowa is the same as it always is in these games: get it to the fourth quarter. I think Penn State will be fired up and eager to stop their slide, but they have to get up early and stay there. If they can’t pull away and the game drags on that’s when the doubt will creep in and they may get that “here we go again” feeling. If Iowa is close or even ahead in the fourth I think it ends with a Hawkeye win.
I’m tempted to stick with my preseason pick, but I think enough has changed where I can allow myself to hope.
Iowa 17, Penn State 16
Matt Reisener
Penn State enters this game as something of an unknown entity. Interim coach Terry Smith has never been a head coach for any football team at any level, Penn State’s new starting quarterback has thirteen career pass attempts, and there’s absolutely no telling how the Nittany Lions will respond after going from a national championship contender to the laughingstock of college football over the course of three weeks. Penn State remains an incredibly talented team capable of going toe to toe with any squad in the country, but it’s anyone’s guess whether the team that shows up to Kinnick Stadium on Saturday will look more like last season’s national semi-finalist or the disaster of a team that lost to the winless UCLA Bruins and middling Northwestern Wildcats in back-to-back weeks.
Here’s what we do know. Penn State brings an inexperience coach and quarterback into one of the most difficult big-game environments in college football, where they will come face-to-face with crowd looking to claim a skull after narrowly missing out on a signature win against Indiana. We also know Penn State is vulnerable against the run, which happens to be the strength of the Hawkeye offense. Finally, we know defensive coordinator Phil Parker has a rich history of confounding young quarterbacks, which is precisely what he did against the last Nittany Lion backup pressed into duty in Iowa’s 2021 victory. Penn State has the talent to make this a game, and even win in it. But projecting a Nittany Lion win would mean betting on more unknown elements than this author cares to.
Iowa 24, Penn State 14
Consensus: Iowa 21, Penn State 16
So there you have it – the Hawks, win, they cover and the under always wins.
How about you, Hawkeye fans? Let’s hear those predictions!
