In what is an unconventional matchup for the top spot in the division, the 3-5 Saints will host the 3-5 Panthers on Sunday at noon in the Superdome. The Panthers came out hot to start the season, and it looked like head coach Dave Canales had finally figured out how to get the team to progress around QB Bryce Young. The Panthers were, at one point, 3-2 and sitting in the top spot of the NFC South, and Bryce Young was playing the best football of his NFL career. Since then, the Panthers have lost
three straight games, including a blowout loss to the Bucs.
The Panthers have still made strides offensively, even though they have been on this losing streak. Currently, the Panthers have the fourth-best passing offense in the NFL, averaging over 261 yards per game. Through the first eight games of the season, Young has thrown for 2,197 yards, 16 TDs, and six INTs. Right now, Young is on pace to finish the season with over 4,500 yards and 34 TDs. Overall, the Panthers are ninth in the NFL in total offense, averaging 362 yards per game, and 11th in scoring, averaging 24.9 points per game.
None of these categories are favorable to the Saints’ defense, as they are currently allowing 370.5 total yards per game, 27 points per game, 236 passing yards per game, and 133.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 27th or worse in the NFL in each category.
The Panthers have the advantage in both rushing and passing, and they have a true No. 1 receiving threat in Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan has recorded 46 receptions for 625 yards and three TDs so far this season. This could present a matchup problem for the Saints’ cornerbacks. The Saints are currently tied for eighth-most in completions of 20-plus yards allowed, having surrendered 28 through eight games. The big-play opportunities are there for opponents, especially considering that not only are those plays available, but there haven’t been many consequences for attempting them, as the Saints have only four INTs on the season.
There are two key areas the Saints can attack. The Carolina offense has been awful at the line of scrimmage when it comes to protecting the QB. The Panthers’ offense has allowed 26 sacks so far this year, averaging 3.25 sacks allowed per game. They have also allowed 104 pressures this year, which is roughly 13 pressures per game.
The Saints have the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL in Chase Young and Carl Granderson. The issue with the Saints’ pass rush is that their pressure rate is still a little low, considering how dominant that pair of edge rushers has been. The Saints currently rank just 26th in the league in pressure rate, which means that if it’s not Young or Granderson, the pressure isn’t consistently getting through. Given how poorly the Panthers’ offensive line has performed in pass protection, this game should help improve that number.
The other area where the Saints could win is on third down. The Saints are allowing opponents to convert 47.2% of their third-down attempts, but the Panthers are only converting 37.7% of their own third-down attempts.
The Saints’ defense will have opportunities to make an impact on this game. They will need to stop the run, contain Bryce Young, and generate pressure with four rushers. If the defense is able to do this, they should be able to limit explosive plays and potentially create turnovers. The Panthers’ offense has given the ball away 12 times this season, and if the Saints can add to that total, they should be able to defend the Dome.
How do you feel about this matchup with the Panthers, and do you think the Saints are rounding into a first-place team?
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