With just over three weeks left in the season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. The Tigers are up by double digits in the AL Central, poised to coast to their first division title since 2014. In the NL, the Wild Card race is likely sewn up, with each of that league’s divisions offering up a bonus postseason inclusion. It’s the type of foregone conclusion that many, myself included, feared when MLB switched to a new playoff format in 2022. With 12 of 30 teams making the playoffs, including
three Wild Card teams from each league, could we still expect the kind of September drama which has always been such a staple of the game, from the Giants’ mad dash to catch the Dodgers for the NL pennant in 1951 through to Evan Longoria’s playoff clinching walk-off to conclude the 2011 regular season?
In year four of the new format, the results remain mixed. But the Yankees’ current positioning — in terms of suspense — may be the best the current format has to offer. As of the morning of September 5th, the Bombers sit three games back of the Toronto Blue Jays for first place in their division, with the Red Sox just a half game behind them in third place. The Yankees’ place in the Wild Card race is a bit more secure, as they stand five games ahead of the Mariners, who currently hold the third spot. But five teams (the Mariners, Rangers, Royals, Rays, and Guardians) are within 3.5 games of Seattle, making the overall AL Wild Card picture far from set. Then there’s the other wrinkle of the new playoff format — the division winners with the two best records circumvent the first round. As it sits currently, the byes would go to the Tigers and Blue Jays, giving the Yankees a path to bypassing the Wild Card round if they can dethrone the Blue Jays atop the AL East.
Of course, in some ways, this level of drama pales in comparison to that of years past. FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection system gives the Yankees a 99.5 percent chance at making the playoffs. The difference between the first Wild Card spot and the second or third amounts to home-field advantage for the first, best-two-out-of-three round. Should they overtake the Blue Jays for the AL East division title, they might still have to play in the Wild Card round unless they have a top-two record. And, as impactful as we’ve seen it be in the NFL over the years, a first-round bye isn’t exactly what you dream of fighting for when playing baseball as a kid. In the NL, where the five playoff teams are locked with 92.5 percent certainty (per ZiPS), the closest to real tension we have is whether the Dodgers can catch the Phillies to snag the second Wild Card bye behind the Brewers.
Still, the fact that the Yankees’ range of regular season outcomes remains fairly wide at this stage of the season is a positive sign that, even in the new playoff format, September baseball can still pack a punch. Of course, for fanbases of the five teams still duking it out for the third AL Wild Card, the expanded format gives some late hope. But, even for teams with a more secure playoff standing, the battle for a stronger position to start a playoff run is something to root for, day in and day out.
