Disclaimer: I do not claim this to be the most perfect ranking of the greatest goalscorers of the 2010s. This does not account for penalties, game states, or European competitions. This ranking is deliberately based on efficiency with respect to volume, non-penalty expected goals, and big chances conversion rate in league games only. This is not opinionated in any way. It’s purely based on data.
This ranking covers league performances across the big five European leagues over the past decade. To qualify,
a player needed at least seven seasons of 1,000 minutes or more and 15,000 minutes in total. Finishers also needed 10 or more non-penalty goals in seven different seasons.
The grade is weighted as follows:
- 50 percent for non-penalty goals per 90
- 30 percent for finishing against npxG per 90
- 10 percent for big chances scored per 90
- 10 percent for big chances missed per 90
Lionel Messi tops the ranking with a grade of 91.2. Across 10 seasons, he scored 306 non-penalty goals from 206.7 npxG, averaging 0.93 goals per 90. He converted 155 of his 329 big chances. His strongest scoring return came in 2012-13, when he averaged 1.38 non-penalty goals per 90 over 2,731 minutes. That was also his strongest return relative to npxG, at 0.66 goals above it per 90. In 2019-20, he averaged 0.60 non-penalty goals per 90; in 2010-11, he finished 0.06 goals above npxG per 90.
Cristiano Ronaldo ranks second with a grade of 82.5. He scored 263 non-penalty goals from 206.5 npxG across 10 seasons, averaging 0.81 goals per 90, and converted 149 of his 338 big chances. His strongest returns for both scoring and outperforming npxG came in 2014-15. Over 3,169 minutes, he averaged 1.08 non-penalty goals per 90 and finished 0.44 goals above npxG per 90. In 2018-19, those figures were 0.51 non-penalty goals and 0.03 goals below npxG per 90.
Luis Suárez is third with a grade of 79.4. Over 10 seasons, he scored 206 non-penalty goals from 152.5 npxG, averaged 0.71 goals per 90 and converted 138 of his 309 big chances. His strongest scoring return came in 2015-16, at 1.00 non-penalty goals per 90 over 3,234 minutes. His strongest return relative to npxG came in 2013-14, when he finished 0.39 goals above it per 90 over 3,082 minutes. He averaged 0.32 non-penalty goals per 90 in 2010-11 and finished 0.11 goals below npxG per 90 in 2011-12.
Gonzalo Higuaín ranks fourth with a grade of 65.6. Across 10 seasons, he scored 166 non-penalty goals from 125.6 npxG, averaged 0.63 goals per 90, and converted 102 of his 205 big chances. His strongest returns on both measures came in 2011-12: over 1,765 minutes, he averaged 1.12 non-penalty goals and finished 0.51 goals above npxG per 90. In 2019-20, he averaged 0.37 non-penalty goals and finished 0.05 goals below npxG per 90.
Edinson Cavani is fifth with a grade of 58.1. He scored 181 non-penalty goals from 143.2 npxG over 10 seasons, averaging 0.66 goals per 90, and converted 129 of his 314 big chances. His strongest scoring return and strongest return relative to npxG both came in 2017-18. Over 2,643 minutes, he averaged 0.85 non-penalty goals per 90 and finished 0.29 goals above npxG per 90. In 2014-15, he averaged 0.50 non-penalty goals and finished 0.01 goals below npxG per 90.
Robert Lewandowski ranks sixth with a grade of 56.2. Across 10 seasons, he scored 209 non-penalty goals from 189.8 npxG, averaged 0.72 goals per 90 and converted 156 of his 350 big chances. His strongest scoring return came in 2015-16, at 0.94 non-penalty goals per 90 over 2,693 minutes. His strongest return relative to npxG came in 2012-13, when he finished 0.28 goals above it per 90 over 2,659 minutes. He averaged 0.44 non-penalty goals per 90 in 2010-11 and finished 0.21 goals below npxG per 90 in 2018-19.
Sergio Agüero is seventh with a grade of 55.6. He scored 173 non-penalty goals from 144.6 npxG across 10 seasons, averaging 0.69 goals per 90, and converted 96 of his 228 big chances. His strongest returns for both scoring and outperforming npxG came in 2013-14. Over 1,561 minutes, he averaged 0.98 non-penalty goals and finished 0.36 goals above npxG per 90. He averaged 0.45 non-penalty goals per 90 in 2012-13 and finished 0.06 goals below npxG per 90 in 2016-17.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic ranks eighth with a grade of 45.6. Across nine seasons, he scored 141 non-penalty goals from 113.1 npxG, averaged 0.63 goals per 90 and converted 80 of his 202 big chances. His strongest returns on both measures came in 2015-16: over 2,608 minutes, he averaged 1.14 non-penalty goals and finished 0.48 goals above npxG per 90. In 2010-11, he averaged 0.38 non-penalty goals and finished 0.06 goals below npxG per 90.
Karim Benzema is ninth with a grade of 40.6. He scored 151 non-penalty goals from 132.6 npxG over 10 seasons, averaging 0.58 goals per 90, and converted 112 of his 241 big chances. His strongest scoring return and strongest return relative to npxG came in 2015-16. Over 2,007 minutes, he averaged 1.08 non-penalty goals per 90 and finished 0.32 goals above npxG per 90. In 2017-18, he averaged 0.12 non-penalty goals and finished 0.29 goals below npxG per 90.
Marco Reus rounds out the top 10 with a grade of 40.6. Across 10 seasons, he scored 106 non-penalty goals from 74.3 npxG, averaged 0.48 goals per 90, and converted 69 of his 144 big chances. His strongest scoring return came in 2019-20, at 0.59 non-penalty goals per 90 over 1,535 minutes. His strongest return relative to npxG came in 2011-12, when he finished 0.30 goals above it per 90 over 2,807 minutes. He averaged 0.31 non-penalty goals per 90 in 2010-11 and finished 0.10 goals below npxG per 90 in 2016-17.
