One of the first signs of the impending offseason is the release of MLB Trade Rumors arbitration estimates for 2026. We’re aren’t going to focus much on the offseason until the Tigers season ends, hopefully in a few weeks, but we can at least start getting a picture of the likely raises due to arbitration eligible players.
The 2026 season has long been a marker in our minds as the point where the Tigers needed to be back to making the postseason. Both Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson will be eligible
for arbitration for the first time, a key point in their major league service time as both have been making the minimum, which was $760,000 in 2025. The “first wave” of Tigers prospects responsible for digging the team out of a long rebuild will only get more expensive from here on out, though not to any crazy degree in 2026.
Matt Swartz is responsible for the projection model used for these estimates at MLB Trade Rumors. Over the years they’ve been pretty accurate. Right now the Tigers have only Javier Báez under a free agent contract for 2026, although Jack Flaherty has a player option for $20M he can exercise. The Tigers also have a club option for RHP Jose Urquidy, but for the most part things are straightforward.
Defending AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal unsurprisingly makes the biggest leap, going from $10.15 million in 2025 up to $17.8 million in 2026. Again, these are only projections, but the Tigers under Scott Harris have shown zero willingness to negotiate, adopting a “file and trial” approach where they quote their price and take it to arbitration if the player doesn’t agree, as opposed to taking time to try and negotiate something between team and player. Probably these will be very close to the mark.
- Tarik Skubal (5.114): $17.8MM
- Casey Mize (5.111): $5.4MM
- Jake Rogers (5.040): $2.9MM
- Will Vest (4.100): $3.3MM
- Zach McKinstry (4.099): $3.5MM
- Matt Vierling (4.026): $3.1MM
- Jason Foley (3.150): $3.15MM
- Alex Lange (3.145): $900K
- Andy Ibanez (3.133): $1.8MM
- Riley Greene (3.110): $6.6MM
- Spencer Torkelson (3.076): $5.1MM
- Kerry Carpenter (3.057): $3.5MM
- Beau Brieske (3.056): $1.3MM
- Tyler Holton (3.047): $1.7MM
Most of these are pretty modest raises. Riley Greene goes from the minimum up to $6.6 million, while Spencer Torkelson is bumped up to $5.1 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility. Kerry Carpenter gets a smaller bump up to $3.5 million. Those, along with Casey Mize, Will Vest, Zach McKinstry, and Tyler Holton, are no-brainers.
The rest of the players on that list, however, will be targets to be released or traded. Assuming the Tigers think Matt Vierling will be back healthy in 2026, he’s pretty close to a lock, as is backup catcher Jake Rogers.
Andy Ibáñez is in his 30’s and really had a poor season at the plate in his limited role in 2026. He’s a likely one to be released. Jason Foley, Alex Lange, and Beau Brieseke will have to prove their worth the pay increase in 2026 after lost seasons in 2025. Lange is the likeliest one of the group to stick around just because the raw stuff is so good and the Tigers really need more strikeout stuff in their bullpen, but Brieske and particularly Foley have been effective relievers. If the Tigers are convinced they’ll be healthy and ready to contribute in 2026 they will probably come along to spring training, but with the threat of a DFA hanging over them.
Currently, FanGraphs has the Tigers’ 2025 payroll at $155 million. Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres coming off the books saves a total of $30 million, while Tommy Kahnle’s $7.5 million will also come off the payroll. That money, along with Flaherty taking a $5 million cut from his 2025 salary should he exercise his $20 million player option, does give the front office a fair amount of wiggle room even it they don’t spend notably more in 2026, but the arbitration raises will cut into a significant portion of those savings.
