After two straight weeks of nearly nailing the final score, last week was a whiff. The 3rd quarter went largely according to plan, but the offense didn’t get off the bus until halftime. Then, the defense
took most of the fourth quarter off. NFL coaching! Improvement! Whatever you say. Coulda-woulda-shoulda been a convincing Tar Heel victory, but instead we needed a stop on Stanford’s final drive to preserve the win.
The Wake Forest game has always been special for me. My mom grew up in High Point, but she went to UNC. Her brother went to High Point University and for football remained a loyal Demon Deacon fan all his life. So did his wife, a Women’s College (now UNC G) grad. Year-round interfamily bragging rights hinged on this game. That tradition continues with several of my wife’s childhood friends boasting Wake Forest degrees. They’ve been teasing us about the Belichick Circus for months now. Hopefully it’s payback time.
Both of these teams are built to be defense-first with offenses mainly playing not to lose. However, both offenses have struggled to execute even the not-to-lose playbook. The result likely will be a game bereft of style points and determined by one team making one more key error than their opponent, a game lost more than won.
Let’s dive in and see if we can find a plausible path to a win for our Heels.
2025 Season So Far: Edge Wake Forest
Being the sole ACC victim in the ’Nole’s last 10 tries, to the tune of 42-7? I almost swung this category our way based on that alone. I have no idea how Wake Forest pulled that one off. FSU’s Castellanos threw only 17 times but gained 271 yards. FSU’s ground game rolled up 5 touchdowns. Hopefully Freddie Kitchens and Matt Lombardi went deep into the evenings reviewing that tape, because WFU’s defense had no answers for Gus Malzahn’s offense.
However, the Demon Deacons then went to Virginia and stole the Cavalier’s lucky rabbit foot. Virginia hadn’t lost a single fumble all year, a minor miracle; the God of Regression gave Wake Forest all three Virginia fumbles that afternoon. Chandler Morris had to leave the game with a concussion. The Cavs still outgained the Deacs by 124 yards, but an 88 yard punt return by the Deacs’ Carlos Hernandez proved the crucial difference.
Wake Forest has the better record against a tougher schedule. Virginia’s the only common opponent, and Wake Forest beat them at their place. We lost to the Cavs narrowly at home. Add it all up, and Wake Forest brings the better resume into this game.
Tar Heel Offense vs Demon Deacon Defense: Edge Wake Forest
Wake Forest will be on paper the best defense we’ve faced this season. FPI rates them 5th in the country, SP+ ranks them 24th, and FEI ranks them 16th. Any way you cut it, it’s an impressive defense, and the ranking average of 13 makes it the only Top 20 unit the Heels have faced this season in any of the sport’s three phases.
If you’re looking for glimmers of hope here, look at how FSU gashed WFU with explosive play after explosive play and then cashed those into TDs once the ‘Noles reached the red zone. And then please don’t look at UNC’s explosive play rate or red zone efficiency (like everything else with our offense, among the worst in FBS). On paper, a bet that Wake Forest’s defense outscores UNC’s offense wouldn’t be crazy. Unlikely but still not insane.
UNC will have to hope for short fields thanks to the UNC defense. However, that happened twice for the Heels against Stanford, and Kitchen’s unit managed four yards on six plays, settling for two field goals. Here’s where I note that Stanford’s defense came into Chapel Hill with an average ranking of 77th. I do not see how UNC finds anything consistently successful against this Wake Forest defense. Yards and points will have to come from penalties, turnovers, and special teams plays.
Tar Heel Defense vs Demon Deacon Offense: Edge North Carolina
Wake Forest will the third opponent in a row featuring a QB with a QBR lower than Gio’s and Max’s. Let that sink in. I can’t find another FBS team, much less a P4 team, with three straight conference opponents so challenged at the QB spot. Also: note that UNC’s offensive ranking average (114) is exactly the same as WFU’s (114). These offenses are almost mirror images of each other.
Wake Forest’s offense exceeds UNC’s measurably in only two areas: drives that earn at least one first down and drives that don’t go backwards. Yes, that’s an actual stat, and yes, UNC’s offense is top 5 in going backwards. In a game where field position will be a focus for both coaching staffs, that difference could add up over the course of a game.
UNC’s defense will have a big edge on Wake Forest’s offense. UNC’s defensive rankings don’t match WFU’s, but the first half of the season continues to weigh down UNC’s defensive ratings to a degree. The Tar Heel defensive line has been on fire since the California game, and that in turn creates space for linebackers Thompson and Simpson to get home for drive-killing plays.
The Demon Deacons don’t allow many sacks, ranking 28th in the country in sacks allowed. Stanford ranked 130th in that metric, and UNC exploited that liability for nine sacks worth 73 yards. A similar result against WFU probably isn’t realistic. In a game where UNC can’t expect its offense to make up deficits, UNC might opt against sending extra pressure. Those can result in coverage busts. and in a game like this, it only takes one of those to be decisive. Then again, Ashford’s efficiency drops significantly under pressure (just like Gio’s), so the defensive game planners have some decisions to make.
Special Teams: Push
Wake Forest beat Virginia largely on the strength of a special teams play, an 88-yard punt return by Carlos Hernandez. Given the huge advantages both defenses have over two woeful offenses, this game seems headed for something similar. WFU has five punt returns of 20+ yards; only nine teams have more. UNC has two. WFU has blocked two kicks; UNC has blocked none. A clean game by UNC special teams would go a long way towards a win this week.
UNC’s higher special teams ranking largely comes from net yardage issues related to punts and kick offs, impacting field position. Again, in a game where both coaches will emphasize field position, those margins could prove important. Both field goal kickers have nailed 14 kicks measuring 50 yards or less, nothing longer. However, Wake Forest has proven better at creating big plays on special teams. That all adds up to a push in a game where special teams seem likely to loom large.
Odds Review
Vegas considers Wake Forest almost a touchdown favorite at -6.5. With a total of 38.5, that’s an implied result around 23-16. Three touchdowns plus six field goals combined for these offenses… that seems optimistic to me. 3-2 seems as possible as 23-16. The only thing we can say for sure is this football game will feature a lot of kicking. Vegas doesn’t offer a line on “ugliest game of the year,” but this one would a great bet if they did.
Summary
UNC can win any game the opposing QB rates lower than Gio. UNC’s offense prefers a play-it-safe game state while it waits for favorable field position or a turnover courtesy of its defense. An opposing offense that pressures UNC’s to keep pace ruins this team’s formula for winning. Cal’s offense couldn’t. Virginia’s couldn’t. Syracuse’s couldn’t. Stanford’s couldn’t. Three of those games were basically coin flips, and the other turned into a rout. Wake Forest’s offense most definitely won’t either, which for me makes this game a coin flip too.
It only takes a defender whiffing on a screen (Syracuse) or the occasionally accurate Gio throw on a wheel route (Stanford) to put up some points. A frustrated Robby Ashford throwing a ball late over the middle a time or two would be nice. UNC’s offense showing up for both halves instead of just the second (a trend over the past month) would be a huge help. Put all those things together, and UNC wins 16-9.
(And then the Maras, so impressed at the massive improvement wrought by Belichick, quietly start arranging to bring him back to the Giants after Thanksgiving. Win-win-win.)
Go Heels
P.S. via ESPN: “It’s like the late rounds of the draft,” Dickert said. “We found guys that love football, fit our culture and have a great energy and passion for what they’re doing. I said when I was hired, this is not a throwaway year. The best program builders in the country maximize the moment.” Jake Dickert, WF HC, hired a week after BB
