Yesterday, we broke down the probabilities of making the playoffs. Today, we’re breaking down something even better: an absolute certainty. The San Francisco 49ers will improve their playoff seeding this weekend. They might even climb to the No. 2 seed.
The 49ers don’t play in Week 14 due to a bye week, but even with their inactivity, they will at least secure the No. 6 seed. Right now, they are the No. 7 seed. And it just gets better from there.
The reason the 49ers are guaranteed to improve is the matchup
between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. One of those two has to lose, and either outcome drops that team below the 49ers in the NFC standings.
- If the Packers win: Chicago falls behind the 49ers in NFC record.
- If the Bears win: Green Bay falls behind the 49ers in win percentage
Either way, the 49ers rise to the sixth seed.
So we at least know that’s happening, but there’s more. The 49ers can make it all the way up to the No. 2 seed provided that the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks both lose. Now, 49ers fans rooting for divisional rivals to lose would be happening regardless of playoff positioning, and a lot of stars would need to align for just one, let alone two of those mentioned teams, to drop a loss.
Why? Well, the Rams have the Arizona Cardinals, and the Seahawks have the Atlanta Falcons. We have discussed this in our NFC West recap, but it merits discussion here.
First, the Cardinals are a disaster, trying to find something, ANYTHING to play for. The Rams lost to the Carolina Panthers, Carolina’s second win against a team above .500 (well, at the time, some of those teams, like the Dallas Cowboys, have improved since then). This is one of those divisional games where some craziness could happen, and the Cardinals win. Then again, the Rams are favored by 8.5 points, so that would be quite the upset. It’s still believable, is all I’m saying.
Then there’s the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Seahawks. The odds here aren’t as bad as the Seahawks are only favored by a touchdown away from home. The Seahawks can be a different team sometimes when they aren’t in Seattle, but the Falcons are not a team that could happen with.
So what happens if one of them wins? Well, the 49ers still benefit. One loss by either the Seahawks or the Rams will put the 49ers in the fifth seed. Maybe getting both teams to lose is a pipe dream, but one upset could still happen (I’ll take my chances with the Cardinals).
No matter what, the 49ers’ playoff positioning will improve while they sit at home. All they have to do is watch the NFC beat up on itself. However the weekend unfolds, the 49ers will have won the bye week.
