Game notes
- Time and date: Wednesday, November 5 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Glass Bowl — Toledo, OH
- Spread: Toledo (-14.5)
- Over/under: 42.5
- All-time series: Toledo leads, 35-17
- Last meeting: Toledo 13, Northern Illinois 6 — October 19, 2024
- Current streak: Toledo, 3 (2022-24)
Setting the scene
Northern Illinois vs. Toledo was a defining matchup for years, often having significant influence on the MAC title race. No teams have more MAC Championship Game appearances than the Huskies and Rockets,
which qualified nine and eight times, respectively. However, this annual matchup is no more after Wednesday night.
Toledo remains in the MAC, while Northern Illinois flees the conference to join the Mountain West. It’s the Rockets and Huskies for the final time, kicking off in Midweek MACtion at the Glass Bowl.
Northern Illinois Huskies outlook
Northern Illinois (2-6, 1-3 MAC) is officially eliminated from MAC championship contention. Thus, the Huskies’ tenure in the conference concludes with five championships, most recently emerging on top in 2021. However, there is more to play for in November as NIU must defend its chance at bowl eligibility four more times.
The Huskies snapped a 6-game losing streak and kept their bowl hopes alive in a Week 9 rivalry game vs. Ball State, suffocating the Cardinals’ offense in a 21-7 decision. NIU still awaits its first road victory since Nov. 6, 2021, dropping five-straight matchups away from DeKalb.
Northern Illinois is fresh off its best offensive performance of the season. The Huskies tied a season-high 21 points against Ball State and finally ignited the run game, posting 305 rushing yards on the Cardinals with Chavon Wright and Telly Johnson Jr. both hitting the century mark. NIU wants to limit its aerial presence as much as possible and simply pound the rock. The season-high in passing for any Huskie quarterback is 161 by starter Josh Holst, and an ideal performance for NIU would be similar to the Ball State game where he only needed 11 attempts for 65 yards in the win.
Wright and Johnson will be the primary pieces moving the offense forward, with Wright operating as the workhorse and Johnson offering the breakaway runs, finding lanes for three 50+ yard touchdowns on the year. Although the Huskies aren’t known for passing, wide receiver DeAree Rogers is another crucial name to watch. He has 38 receptions for 439 yards, and three of five NIU receiving touchdowns. No other roster member exceeds 12 receptions of 110 yards, emphasizing how critical Rogers is to any passing production.
Still, offense has been an overall struggle for NIU, ranking third-to-last in scoring, second-to-last in passing, and fifth-to-last in yardage. Defense is another story though. The Huskies remain a force on that side of the ball, giving up 22.1 points per game and limiting five of eight opponents to 20 points or fewer.
Other than Ohio, no NIU opponent just started clicking offensively out of the gate. It usually takes time to figure out this savvy bunch of tacklers and coverage specialists. Inside linebacker Quinn Urwiler quickly introduces himself to most offenses, ranking third in the FBS with 97 tackles — ranking first in the country in solo stops. Filip Maciorowski and Jasper Beeler are other standout hitters on this quality defense. NIU excels at defending the air, checking in at 15th in the FBS in fewest passing yards allowed per game.
Surprisingly, it’s not a unit reliant on turnovers. It managed three takeaways in the recent Ball State win to increase its season total to nine. One way to improve that output is simply apply more pressure to quarterbacks, as NIU averages 1.5 sacks per game heading into November.
Toledo Rockets outlook
Toledo (4-4, 2-2 MAC) entered the season with lofty expectations, hoping to utilize its bevy of returning talent to fuel a MAC championship, or potential College Football Playoff run. The latter is out of the question, but Toledo could still bounce-back from a lackluster start (by its own recent standards) to return to its third MAC title game in four years.
Here’s the thing — Toledo is exceeding all expectations, but only at home. At the Glass Bowl, the Rockets are as dominant as anyone in the country, generating a 4-0 record with an aggregate score of 195-34 (averaging to roughly 49-9 per game). The Rockets exceeded 500 yards and attained at least 45 in all four of these victories, leaving no stone unturned when playing host duties. That offense is not observed on the road, averaging 14.8 points per game away from the Glass Bowl. But Toledo is back in its home sanctuary Wednesday night ready for its home trends to persist.
The Rockets have no shortage of veteran offensive talent, led by starting quarterback Tucker Gleason and star wide receiver Junior Vandeross III. Gleason is fourth in the MAC with 1,721 passing yards, displaying a touchdown to interception ratio of 13-to-5. While his accuracy has climbed, his mobility isn’t as present as it was in a 364-yard rushing season in 2024 — sitting at 71 yards at the moment. Vandeross is his top receiver, totaling 52 receptions, 608 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns — ranking second, third, and first in the MAC in those major categories. Getting the 2024 GameAbove Sports Bowl MVP involved is a focal point for the offense, and Toledo is 2-0 averaging 45 points per game when he gets at least eight catches.
The running back room is not as clear heading into Wednesday night, considering starter Chip Trayanum missed the past two games due to injury. Kenji Christian and Conner Walendzak will share the premier running back duties if Trayanum is unable to go, and Christian posted 113 yards in the Oct. 18 win over Kent State.
Offense is the more inconsistent facet of Toledo’s game. Even during this 0-4 start on the road, the defense has played pretty stellar. The strength of the unit is the secondary which features a slew of stars — some which may join Quinyon Mitchell in the professional ranks. This secondary includes cornerbacks Avery Smith and Andre Fuller, free safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, strong safety Braden Awls, and nickel Nasir Bowers. Awls has become the ultimate ballhawk with four picks, while McNeil-Warren causes all sorts of havoc with 50 tackles, three forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries, and a pick-six.
As a unit, Toledo ranks fourth nationally in fewest passing yards surrendered per game at 143, limiting opponents to an inefficient 52.8 completion rate. On the ground, Toledo is just as unshakeable. The Rockets are 14th in fewest rushing yards allowed at 94, giving up 2.7 yards per carry. Malachi Davis and K’Von Sherman are key members of the defensive front who combine for 16.5 tackles for loss in one of the FBS’s most well-rounded defenses.
Prediction
This is a matchup of two excellent defenses, and Toledo’s third-ranked yards per game defense is going to show up. The Rockets have dominated competition all year long in DeKalb, only allowing 34 points across four games at their home stadium. It’s a bad recipe for Northern Illinois to enter the Glass Bowl, especially considering its notable offensive struggles.
Toledo can stack the box, stop the run, and force NIU to rely on the passing game on 3rd-and-long situations. The Rockets should have no trouble producing routine stops on an offense which scored 14 or fewer points in its first five FBS matchups of 2025. Meanwhile, Toledo’s offense should eventually find its footing thanks to great field position and a strong performance by Junior Vandeross III. Toledo rolls and eliminates NIU from bowl eligibility.
Prediction: Toledo 34, Northern Illinois 7
