Chiefs News 11/5: The Chiefs are a good team that’s gotten some bad luck

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“If anything this year, we’ve been inconsistent. I mean, [the] last game was a clean game; we had no penalties [against Dallas] — and that was a positive — but we’ve had no penalties before

and then we came back with three penalties. So we need to compile some games here [that are] clean, clean, clean — and most importantly, Ws. I mean, if everybody does that, we’ll be where we need to be.”

— Special teams coordinator Dave Toub

A New No. 1 Emerges in Our 2025 NFL QB Rankings | SI

3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Last ranking: 1

Mahomes has been brilliant this season, but he hasn’t been able to buoy the 6–6 Chiefs, who may need to win out for a playoff berth. With 22 passing touchdowns (26 total) and seven interceptions, Mahomes is spreading the ball around, having four receivers with at least 400 yards. He’s also second to Maye in EPA at +94.4, putting him well on track for his sixth season of +100 EPA and his first since winning the MVP award in 2022.

AFC wild card rankings: How Chiefs, Bills and other contenders stack up | CBS Sports

3. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, we are still going with the Chiefs here. And, cards on the table, we originally had them at No. 2 before remembering that the Bills are really good at running the ball and the Chiefs are, well, not. The Chiefs have better underlying numbers pretty much across the board than they did last season. They just cannot seem to win the close games this year that they have consistently won otherwise during the Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid era. Even when it looks like the offense is operating in a small box, they still find a way to be efficient and put points on the board, and the defense is basically a league-average unit. This is a good team that’s gotten some bad luck.

NFL Week 14 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game | NFL.com

Why Gennaro picked the Texans: “Defense wins championships” is a simplistic saying that, quite frankly, typically doesn’t have much purchase in today’s offense-driven NFL. Every so often, though, a D comes along that flips the modern game on its head. Think: Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” and Denver’s “No Fly Zone” — two top-ranked units that spearheaded Super Bowl triumphs. Is this Houston group, which leads the league in points and yards allowed, that kind of defense? OK, admittedly, it’s more than a little presumptuous to start talking about the Lombardi Trophy with a team that doesn’t currently hold a playoff spot, ranking third in its own division. But with the Texans riding a four-game win streak, having stifled the Colts and Bills over the past two weeks, it seems fair to discuss DeMeco Ryans’ defense-led squad as a potential knuckleball in an AFC that feels wide open. With the established heavies coming back to the pack in 2025, could Houston ultimately emerge as the cream of the conference? Stranger things have happened. And a win in this Sunday Night Football spotlight — on the road, against the franchise that’s claimed five of the past six AFC titles — would certainly put the rest of the conference on notice. To be clear, Kansas City is far from the supreme team we’ve become accustomed to, with three losses in its last four games. But it’s still Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. And the venue’s still Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs have lost one game since Christmas Day 2023. K.C. currently has a 34 percent chance to make the playoffs, per Next Gen Stats, but a loss would drop those postseason odds to 11 percent. That’s slim-to-none territory. Can the Texans slay this beleaguered AFC beast? With a ferocious front to overwhelm Kansas City’s battered offensive line, I think they can — and will!

The Chiefs and 4 other NFL teams outside the playoff picture you don’t want to face | The Athletic

2. Kansas City Chiefs: I understand NFL fans are tired of seeing the Chiefs in this “watch out for them in the playoffs” angle when they’ve been sitting outside of the playoff picture for weeks now, and the losses continue to pile up. But if they do turn it around and get some help and get in, this is a solid team. They’re a battle-tested, veteran bunch. If they make it to the postseason, that means they hit their stride to end the regular season. They have Patrick Mahomes and a relatively healthy cast around him that boasts the No. 2 offense by EPA in the league right now and a decent defense. The only way the Chiefs are not a scary team in the playoffs is if they’re watching from the couch.

Why hope for a Chiefs turnaround comes from Andy Reid’s past — and the Bills | The Athletic

Those Eagles shared a commonality with the 2025 Chiefs: Even after shifting to backup quarterback Jeff Garcia following an injury to Donovan McNabb, they appeared — statistically — to be on the verge of a breakout even before they actually broke out.

The proof comes in the advanced numbers. FTN Fantasy analyst Aaron Schatz’s data goes back to the 1978 season, and in that time, the 2006 Eagles ranked (on a per-play basis) as his sixth-best 6-6 team in NFL history.

No. 10 on that list? This year’s Chiefs.

And history has been kind to these types of teams whose early results haven’t always matched their down-by-down production.

Among those nine best 6-6 NFL teams in Schatz’s all-encompassing DVOA metric, no squad finished with a worse-than-.500 record in its remaining games. The group also combined to go 27-10 over the rest of the regular season.

2025 NFL Week 14 Expert Picks | Bleacher Report

O’Donnell: Chiefs (-3.5)

I should be taking the Texans here, especially with a dreaded hook staring me in the face. Almost everyone else on the panel is with the NFL’s No. 1 defense. I get it, and to keep believing the Chiefs are just going to wake up and be the Super Bowl-caliber squad we’re accustomed to is foolish.

However, I’m willing to get burned at least one more time because I do not trust C.J. Stroud enough against a Chiefs defense that has to be at its best or risk the season truly slipping away.

Around the NFL

Jahmyr Gibbs’ three TD runs power Lions over Cowboys | ESPN

The first challenge was a big one against a surging Dallas Cowboys team, but the Lions proved up to the task with a 44-30 victory. Detroit’s odds to make the playoffs improved from 43% before the game to 56% with the win, according to ESPN Analytics.

“We need to treat it like playoff games,” Gibbs told ESPN beforehand. Gibbs responded with three touchdown runs and 77 receiving yards. His five games with multiple TD runs are tied for second most in a season in Lions history.

The Lions also got a boost from WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who suited up after being a game-time decision because of an ankle injury. St. Brown had six catches for 92 yards.

In case you missed it on Arrowhead Pride

Chiefs see Texans as aggressive and confident on both sides of the ball

The challenge begins with a feared Houston defense that currently leads the league with a -0.18 expected points added (EPA), per Next Gen Stats.

“You’ve got to match their intensity,” quarterback Patrick Mahomes told reporters on Wednesday. “I think that’s the biggest thing. Obviously the D-line’s good. The linebackers are good, and the DBs are good. But I think what makes them who they are is how hard they play. Every single snap they’re flying around and they’re trying to make plays happen. They’re trying to intercept the football. They’re trying to knock the football out. They’re trying to make big hits. So, we’ve got to match that intensity — as an offense and as a team — in order to go out there and get a win.”

Center Creed Humphrey will be lining up against the Texas defense for the third time in a year.

“They play aggressive defense,” he observed. “They’re really sound technically, really sound schematically, and they play very hard. Everybody has a great motor on the defense — so whatever scheme they’re playing that week, they’re doing a great job with it. For us, it’s just about coming out and making sure we match that energy — and bring more — and to show up with the right mindset on Sunday.”