Tyler Kinley’s relationship to the Braves has been an odd one over the last year.
Before 2025, Kinley had a career 107/102/109 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) and 1.2 fWAR in just under 260 innings. Most of that value was accrued in 2022, when his season was cut short by injury. It’s also important to keep in mind that there’s at least some evidence that the Coors Field park effects are overly punishing to hitters and therefore overly generous to pitchers.
Before the Braves traded for him in 2025, it was more
of the same: 118/96/113. Those numbers are barely rosterable for a reliever aside from a low HR/FB. The Braves hoped they could get more out of him, and they did in some ways, though it wasn’t exactly him hitting a new gear or anything: 17/68/105. Basically, Kinley had an epic run of not having runs charged to him and allowing very homers… while pitching as effectively (or, I guess, ineffectively) like the Kinley of old. The Braves had Kinley throw fewer fastballs, work harder on getting the fastball up, and change the way he threw his curveball so that it came out of a similar arm slot as his slider. They had him focus on getting the breaking pitches in the zone, with the fastball going above it.
Kinley did all of this. There is a very clear breakpoint in his pitch usage and location, among other things, between his time with the Braves and the Rockies. This wasn’t a matter of an inability to implement desired changes. It was just that it didn’t really matter. Though Kinley did halve his walk rate as a result of the changes, getting the ball in the zone or higher made him less of a grounder-generator and didn’t help him in the strikeout department. The fewer walks were great, but that was largely the only benefit.
While we don’t know the reasons, all of this led to a surprising-at-the-time-I-guess? declining of his team option in the offseason. There was some clamor about $5.5 million being an okay price for Kinley’s services, but from my perspective, there was no reason to give a reliever who never pitched all that well and couldn’t even manage a 100 xFIP- with the Braves anything above league minimum in the first place. The Braves ultimately re-signed Kinley for $4.25 million, essentially saving $1.25 million relative to his option price.
There was a stretch, a relatively brief one, where Kinley at least seemed better. Through May 3, he kind of seemed like he was picking up where he left off in 2025, with a little bit better performance overall: 42/82/94. His walk rate was back up to its former gross levels, but he was actually striking a bit more guys out. A reliever with an xFIP- around 90, especially one that you believe has some contact/homer suppression, can definitely play in a bullpen.
It didn’t last, though. Over the next month or so, Kinley went 111/130/96. His walk rate fell, but so did the grounder rate. You can write off the homers, as well, HR/FB stuff, but it didn’t feel great. His elbow may not have felt great, either, as he missed about a few weeks with inflammation.
At this point, Kinley has been back for about a month, and his performance has been ghastly. 231/202/132 is really bad. His strikeout rate plummeted, his walk rate is bad again, he’s barely getting any grounders. Joel Payamps got canned after a 193/137/116 line. Aaron Bummer got canned after a 179/207/136 line. The Braves ate some money in both of those cases. Kinley could very well be next: his season line is now 107/125/103, and has been getting dramatically worse basically every other outing or so.
Probably the biggest issue is that in aggregate, Kinley is losing any reason for positive prognosis. Even if he was never a guy to dream on given his track record, you could at least… ponder that he’d be okay for a while? But, with his season xFIP- crossing the 100 mark again, and with him not even doing the homer suppression thing, there’s not much there there. Basically every plate discipline metric is down across the board from his Braves stint in 2025, and his fastball command has been an utter disaster. While he’s really honed his slider release such that it hits the corner of the zone over and over, that’s actually not as helpful when everyone knows it’s coming at least two out of every three pitches, and he has no idea where his fastball is going. (The fact that the slider’s shape isn’t very good is another detriment — batters have an easier time hitting it relative to another slider if they know it’s coming and they can reach it, and they definitely know it’s coming and can reach it in the zone.)
So, put all that together, consider the impending Trade Deadline, and… will Tyler Kinley make it to season’s end with the Braves? Or, will they eat another partial reliever salary to reconfigure their bullpen to hopefully be a bit better?
