The New York Giants dominated the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football and earned the extensive rest ahead of their matchup in Denver against the Broncos. The 2-4 Giants, who are 2-1 since rookie
quarterback Jaxson Dart became starter, play the 4-2 Denver Broncos. The Giants are 7-point road underdogs and the Over/Under is set for a Week 7 low of 40.5-points.
The Giants offense scored 34 points against Vic Fangio’s Eagles’ defense, albeit the Eagles were without defensive lineman Jalen Carter and lost star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. However, it is difficult to ignore, or deny, the newfound energy of the Giants’ offense, led by Dart and rookie running back Cam Skattebo. Dart and the Giants offense will face one of the best defensive units in the NFL in Week 7.
Broncos’ defense
Vance Joseph coordinates one of the most disciplined and physical defensive units in all of football. Through six games, the Broncos have allowed just 15.8 points per gam, which ranks second-best in the NFL (The Houston Texans are No. 1). They allow just 254.3 yards per game, which is also second-best in the NFL (Atlanta Falcons are No. 1).
The defense ranks third-best in passing yards allow, with opponents averaging 165.2 yards per game through the air. Jets’ quarterback Justin Fields threw for just 45 yards and took nine sacks in London vs. the Denver defense. The Broncos allow the sixth-least rushing yards in the league, with an average allowed of 89 rushing yards per game.
The Broncos have BY FAR the best red zone percentage in the league; Joseph’s group allows a red-zone touchdown on just 28.57% of trips — the next-closest team is the Los Angeles Chargers with a 42.86% red-zone touchdown rate. Denver allows the lowest offensive third-down percentage rate in the league, with a 27.16% number; the Minnesota Vikings are second-lowest at 30.16%.
The Denver defense has allowed just four passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns on the season. Denver does only have one interception on the season (Brandon Jones in Week 3 against the Chargers). The Broncos lead the league in sacks with 30; the next-closest team is the Pittsburgh Steelers with 20.
The Broncos’ defense is not to be trifled with. They lead the league with a 33.8% pressure rate, with just a 28.1% blitz rate — Joseph will dial up simulated pressure and full on blitzes; I especially expect that type of approach against a rookie quarterback. Joseph does not have to typically rely on the blitz, though, for his four-man pass rush is of high quality.
Nik Bonitto has 29 pressures on the season to reward the Broncos for his big contract. Bonitto is more of a pass-rushing specialist than a full-time player, albeit he’s not inept as a run defender. Jonathan Cooper has 27 pressures from the other edge spot and star defensive tackle, Zach Allen has 24 pressures on the season.
Bonitto leads the league with 8.0 sacks, and has with seven tackles for a loss. Bonitto does lead the team in STOPs with 19; linebacker Alex Singleton has 18 STOPs. Cooper has 4.5 sacks on the season, Allen 2.5, John Franklin-Meyers has 3.5-sacks, and linebacker Justin Strnad has 3.0-sacks. The simulated pressure and blitzing has led linebackers such as Strnad and Singleton to earn pressure and sack attempts.
The matchup
The Broncos pass rush is generating a pressure on 13.16% of their snaps — no other team is exceeding 9.13%, according to Joe Rowles of the Denver Post. Dart and the Giants MUST find a way to slow down Allen, Nik Bonitto, Cooper, and the rest of that vaunted pass-rush. One way to do that — keep working the RPO and rushing attack!
Joseph is calling a much more man-heavy defense than many other teams in the league. The Broncos use Cover-1 at a 48.7% rate. Expect this to maintain against this iteration of the Giants’ receiver corps, since Denver has a loaded secondary, which includes Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss at cornerback, and a physical pair of safeties (Brandon Jones and Talanoa Hufanga).
Ja’Quan McMillian has played well in the slot and should see a lot of Wan’Dale Robinson. Moss, however, is a player to target in man coverage, especially Cover-1 man. New York could look to attack deep in one-on-one matchups against Cover-1 if, of course, the protection can hold up. Moss against Lil’ Jordan Humphrey could be a mismatch worth looking at against a Cover-1 look.
Rookie defensive back Jahdae Barron has played 95 snaps this season and only 11 against the Jets last week. McMillian is earning a role over Barron; look for the Giants to attack the rookie through the air; Cam Skattebo may look to have a little bit extra against Barron, who won Defensive MVP in the Peach Bowl against Arizona State last year.
The Giants have pass blocked at a more effective rate over the last few games. Austin Schlottmann may start over John Michael Schmitz (concussion), but the veteran center looked more than capable in Week 6. The Giants offensive line and Jaxson Dart’s legs against man coverage could be two major reasons why the Giants push the Broncos.
Surtain II, in this matchup, may be a wide receiver eraser, which could lead to a more concentrated passing attack, depending on how Joseph deploys him.
Forcing the defense to read and be disciplined could allow the Giants to dictate with, not just their rushing attack, but their short passing attack to temper the rush. The Giants should continue with more 12 and 13 personnel usage, as well as some PONY package (21 personnel), especially with a more healthy Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Expect the Giants to mix up and vary their personnel width. Brian Daboll stretches the defense out with plus-splits to work the RPO and allow the rushing attack to have more room to breath, while also opening up space inside the numbers. I do, however, see the Giants using some condensed formations in third-and-short situations to create traffic and natural rub routes for easy reads.
The Giants use big bodied receivers to open up space, with inner receivers releasing outward, underneath, those releases. Tight STACKS and BUNCH sets should give the Giants opportunity to create some space against this suffocating defense.
Final thoughts
The Broncos have traveled a lot recently. They were in Philadelphia for their Week 5 21-17 victory. Sean Payton’s group then traveled to London to strangle the Jets into a 13-11 win. Now, with no bye-week, the Broncos host an energized New York Giants team. New York will be tested, though, not just by an elite defense, but also by the atmosphere of Empower Field at Mile High. Playing in Denver is difficult for a variety of reasons, including the high altitude.
The energy of the Giants will be needed in Denver. This isn’t an impossible task for the Giants, but a very difficult one; a task that will stress the limits of the Giants’ young offense. Communicating in the building is going to be difficult and the Giants must play a disciplined brand of football to effectively move down the field against this defense. Can the youth movement invade Denver and seize victory in a hostile environment? If so, the 2025 season will continue its trajectory toward the interesting rather than meaningless football in November.
