The San Francisco 49ers take on the Washington Commanders on Monday night in a primetime game, looking to stay undefeated and extend their record to 6-0.
The Niners are favored by more than a touchdown in this game on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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The 49ers are coming off an impressive 32-29 win over the Seattle Seahawks that had seven turnovers, 13 penalties, and a combined
7 of 24 on third downs from both offenses. Still, it ended up producing 61 points, with both teams capitalizing on turnovers, and the 49ers ended up the victor thanks to two key offensive drives down the stretch.
After an up-and-down start, Brock Purdy delivered on a key 12-play, 74-yard touchdown drive to begin the fourth quarter with several accurate throws, giving the 49ers a 29-26 lead. Then, after Seattle tied it up, the 49ers got the go-ahead field goal and forced a turnover on downs to win the game.
Now, San Francisco turns to the Washington Commanders, who are coming off a big overtime blunder in a tie with the New York Giants. With a chance to win the game on a field goal, the Commanders snapped another play, and quarterback Jayden Daniels was tackled inbounds, causing the clock to run out in an ugly ending.
Now, Washington stands at 1-3-1 heading into this road game against the 49ers. Currently, San Francisco stands as 7.5-point home favorites for Monday night’s game, with the total sitting at a high 52.5 points.
Before we get into our three predictions for the game, let’s take a look back at last week’s predictions.
Last Week
- It’s a day for the 49ers linebackers
- 49ers will have to rely on banged-up Mike Evans
- The under comes true
I noted how the Seahawks would look to establish the run, even with them being ranked 26th in EPA per play, making it a key day for the 49ers linebackers. Additionally, it felt like a day that Raheem Morris would dial up pressure on Sam Darnold to make him uncomfortable, which would include some creative blitz packages.
Well, the Seahawks tried to get their run game going, but got on 89 yards on 26 carries, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Seattle’s rush EPA was the second-worst of any team in Week 5, and their rushing success rate ranked 25th of 30 teams.
Meanwhile, Fred Warner had 10 tackles, one pressure, and a forced fumble, and Jaden Dugger had a big game in the absence of an ejected Dre Greenlaw. Stepping into the action on a whim, the rookie had nine tackles, second only to Warner, while getting a sack and a tackle for loss. Dugger and Warner also combined for 10 defensive stops, while Dugger had three pressures on blitzes as well.
With how the 49ers receiving core looked in Week 5, it felt like, for the 49ers to get any offense in the air, Mike Evans would have to be the catalyst. And he certainly was that on Sunday. The banged-up star hauled in seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown, making clutch play after clutch play.
No other receiver had more than 21 receiving yards, while George Kittle had five catches for 24 yards.
As for the third prediction, evidently, the under didn’t come together. But the premise for it was there. I thought this would be a defense-centric game with both coordinators dialing up strong pressure plans. I also felt like it would be hard for either side to run the ball, given the strength of the two defenses on the ground and Seattle’s struggles there offensively.
Well, it was a defensive game, only the defense turned into offense for both sides with the seven turnovers. The 49ers had 21 points off turnovers. The Seahawks had 17. And both teams dialed up pressure well. The 49ers got 23 pressures and five sacks on Sam Darnold. The Seahawks got 23 pressures and the first three sacks of the season on Brock Purdy.
So, the logic was there. The result just didn’t happen. Now, let’s move on to this week’s predictions.
Brock Purdy pads his MVP case
This is a game designed for Brock Purdy and the 49ers passing game.
Even with San Francisco’s wide receiver injuries, I think they’ll find a way to get things moving in the air against a Washington defense that has especially struggled in the air.
The Commanders are 25th in EPA allowed per dropback and 27th in dropback success rate. Washington has forced 1.4 turnovers per game, but Purdy has been pretty strong with his decision-making, aside from a few plays this season in the Rams and Seahawks games.
Mike Evans should be the beneficiary of a big Purdy game, and hopefully another week gets him healthier with the rib injury. But regardless, Evans has clearly shown the ability to play through such a serious injury, and should be a big factor on Monday night.
The 49ers will want to establish the run as they did against Seattle, but Washington is also seventh in EPA allowed per rush, so the game plan could be more pass-centric to exploit the matchup. That leads to a good game for Purdy to further establish his MVP case.
Niners hit the 30-point mark again
Currently, the 49ers total is set at 29 points ahead of Monday’s game. It feels like a prime spot for them to reach the 30-point mark for the fourth time in six games so far.
The total of 52.5 points indicates a high-scoring game, and the Commanders haven’t been a very good defense, even with a new defensive coordinator in Daronte Jones. After last week, I do think the 49ers can be balanced and find some consistency on the ground, and they could be playing with a lead for most of Monday’s game.
In the case that Jayden Daniels’s rushing ability does give the 49ers’ defense fits, that would only increase the possibility of a 30-ball for the Niners.
San Francisco’s at home, and Kyle Shanahan has been on a roll this season. Expect another strong showing from the offense on Monday.
The Niners make Washington one-dimensional
The biggest challenge for San Francisco on Monday will be containing Jayden Daniels and his elusive rushing ability. The Commanders want to run the ball. They’re 20th in neutral pass, despite ranking 21st in EPA per rush and 19th in rush success rate.
Washington’s offensive line has performed better than expectations this year despite the loss of Laremy Tunsil, but their running backs haven’t been efficient. Lead back Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who was ruled out for Monday, has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. Rachaad White hasn’t been much better at 4.1 yards per carry.
The big threat is Jayden Daniels’s legs, as he went for 103 yards and two touchdowns on the ground last weekend.
Still, stopping the run will make Washington one-dimensional, which favors Raheem Morris and his creative blitzes. That should provide another advantage for the 49ers.
