In my months-long quest to not be grumpy about the 2026 Tigers, – and, specifically, the ‘26 defense – said journey now takes us to one of the bigger x-factors in a football game: turnovers.
A defense that can continuously give their offense the ball in plus territory by taking away the opposing offense’s control of the ball is one of the more impactful moments in a given game.
The downside: they’re random.
Sure, there’s plenty of coaches out there that will tell you that turnovers are coachable and
that their system can ensure a number in the positive ledger of the turnover column.
But that’s just not proven to be the case! Yes, you’ll have some years that the turnover margin leaps or sinks to an extreme, but over larger data sets, turnovers even out to essentially net neutral, meaning that they aren’t coachable.
Defensive schemes can put a secondary in place to break up the ball by tipping it, and front seven defenders are taught how to punch/rip the ball out of a carrier’s hands. That’s absolutely true.
But the oblong shape of the ball means a fumble bounces in ways you can’t anticipate, and tipping a ball in the air turns it into a luck-based leaping game in order to catch it before it falls. That’s not really coachable, either.
To summarize all that above succinctly: forcing turnovers is a skill, recovering turnovers is random.
That being said, a high turnover margin can help paper over other defensive deficiencies, so my question for today is this: does Corey Batoon’s system create an opportunity for Missouri defenders to create more turnovers to help a brand new defense?
But, as always, let’s go over some definitions first:
- Expected Turnovers: this measures the number of turnovers a team should have had based on league-average rates for fumble recoveries (50%) and interceptions (roughly 30% of passes defended). The math on this is straightforward, as you take the number of forced fumbles and multiply it by 50%, then take the number of passes broken up (PBUs) and multiply it by 30%, and that gives you the expected turnover number.
- Actual Turnovers: I feel like this one is self-explanatory. It’s the number of turnovers a team actually had. Moving on!
- Expected Turnover Margin: Similar to above, except you apply the multipliers to your defense AND offense and then figure out the margin between the two. Positive means your defense provided more turnovers than your offense did, negative means the opposite.
- Actual Turnover Margin: you can figure this one out. I believe in you.
- Turnover Luck in Points Per Game: The blogfather Bill C. deems that any turnover in a game shifts the final game margin by 5 points. So this metric looks at expected vs. actual turnovers, multiplies it by that 5 point rule, and then spits out how lucky a team was in terms of points gained or lost based off of turnovers. Positive means that the team was extremely lucky and probably won a few close games thanks to turnovers. Negative means that a team was unlucky in recovering turnovers and probably lost a few close games due to poor recovery of turnover opportunities.
Now, here’s the data:
Corey Batoon’s 2024 Missouri Defense
- Expected Turnovers: 19.9 (50th in the nation)
- Actual Turnovers: 17 (67th) [15 came on defense, 2 on special teams]
- Expected Turnover Margin: +8.1 (10th)
- Actual Turnover Margin: +8.0 (24th)
- Turnover Luck in Points Per Game: +3.0
2024 was a good turnover year for Missouri’s defense! The raw number of turnovers was only 50th but the expected turnover margin was the 10th highest in the country and the actual margin ranked 24th. And benefiting from an extra 3 points per game while going 6-1 in one score games seems important, huh?
Here’s the defensive roster and the numbers they put up in terms of passes broken up, interceptions, forced fumbles, and fumble recoveries:
- Corey Flagg, Jr.: 0 Forced Fumbles, 0 Fumble Recoveries, 0 Passes Broken Up, 1 Interception
- Marvin Burks, Jr.: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 1 PBU, 1 INT
- Triston Newson: 1 FF, 0 FRs, 1 PBU, 0 INTs
- Johnny Walker, Jr.: 3 FFs, 1 FR, 0 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Daylan Carnell: 2 FFs, 1 FR, 6 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Chris McClellan: 1 FF, 0 FRs, 3 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Kristian Williams: 1 FF, 0 FR, 2 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Zion Young: 1 FF, 1 FR, 2 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Drey Norwood: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 4 PBUs, 2 INTs
- Joseph Charleston: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 2 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Tre’Vez Johnson: 0 FFs, 1 FR, 2 PBUs, 1 INT
- Chuck Hicks: 0 FFs, 0 FRs , 1 PBU, 0 INTs
- Sidney Williams: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 2 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Eddie Kelly, Jr.: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 2 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Toriano Pride, Jr.: 1 FF, 1 FR, 3 PBUs, 2 INTs
- Nicholas Deloach, Jr.: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 5 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Caleb Flagg: 1 FF, 0 FRs, 0 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Sterling Webb: 0 FFs, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 0 INTs
- Marcus Clarke: 1 FFs, 0 FRs, 0 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Ja’Marion Wayne: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 1 PBU, 0 INTs
- Joe Moore III: 0 FFs, 1 FR, 0 PBUs, 0 INTs
No one else on the defensive roster recorded a forced fumble, fumble recovery, PBU, or INT.
Let’s tally this up real quick for 2024:
- Forced Fumbles: 12
- Fumble Recoveries: 8
- Passes Broken Up: 38
- Interceptions: 7
Based off of definitions above, Missouri should have recovered 6 fumbles (because 50% of 12 is 6) and recovered 8, so they were lucky there. They also should have picked off around 11 passes (because 30% of 38 is 11.4) and wound up intercepting 7, so they were unlucky in that department.
All of that contributed to the advanced stats I started off with. Not too shabby!
Now, for 2025:
Corey Batoon’s 2025 Missouri Defense
- Expected Turnovers: 14.5 (106th in the nation)
- Actual Turnovers: 12 (106th) [11 on defense, 1 via special teams]
- Expected Turnover Margin: -2.1 (91st)
- Actual Turnover Margin: -5.0 (104th)
- Turnover Luck in Points Per Game: -1.9
Holy statistical regression! The ‘25 defense returned a ton of pieces from the ‘24 group and, even though they were a much improved defense, the turnover production was not nearly as impressive on a national level as it was in the previous year. Thanks to turnovers they were at a nearly 2-point deficit, in a year where they went 1-3 in one-score games. Again, feels like that’s noteworthy.
Here’s the production broken down by player:
- Zion Young: 2 Forced Fumbles, 0 Fumble Recoveries, 3 Passes Broken Up, 0 Interceptions
- Nicholas Rodriguez: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 5 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Chris McClellan: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 2 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Marvin Burks, Jr.: 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 1 INT
- Daylan Carnell: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 3 PBUs, 1 INT
- Beans Banner: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 3 PBUs, 1 INT
- Triston Newson: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 1 PBU, 0 INTs
- Khalil Jacobs: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 2 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Jalen Catalon: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 1 PBU, 0 INTs
- Damon Wilson II: 0 FFs, 1 FR, 2 PBUs, 1 INT
- Toriano Pride, Jr.: 0 FFs, 1 FR, 3 PBUs, 2 INTs
- Stephen Hall: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 2 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Darris Smith: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 2 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Drey Norwood: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 3 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Marquis Gracial: 1 FF, 0 FRs, 1 PBU, 0 INTs
- Jeremiah Beasley: 1 FF, 0 FRs, 1 PBU, 0 INTs
- Mose Phillips III: 1 FF, 0 FRs, 0 PBUs, 0 INTs
- Elias Williams: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 1 PBU, 0 INTs
- Dante McClellan: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 2 PBUs, 1 INT
- Nicholas Deloach, Jr.: 0 FFs, 0 FRs, 1 PBU, 0 INTs
- Cameron Keys: 0 FFs, 1 FR, 1 PBU, 0 INTs
No other Missouri defender – yes, including Josiah Trotter – logged any stats in these categories.
And here’s those stats talleyed up:
- Forced Fumbles: 6
- Fumble Recoveries: 4
- Passes Broken Up: 40
- Interceptions: 7
Again, based off of definitions above, Missouri in 2025 should have recovered 3 fumbles (because 50% of 6 is 3) and actually recovered 4, so they were slightly lucky there. They also should have picked off 12 passes (because 30% of 40 is 12) and wound up intercepting 7, so they were unlucky in that department.
Conclusion
Missouri is lucky at recovering fumbles but not as skilled at creating those opportunities. They are also very skilled at creating opportunities to break up passes but are unlucky in intercepting passes.
Entering Year Three of Corey Batoon’s tenure of the Mizzou defense, I have zero idea how the turnover aspect is going to play out. If history holds, they’ll probably have active hands in pass defense but be unable to corral a bunch of interceptions, while pouncing on the few fumbles they create.
But that’s a two year sample set and the defense is barely seeing anyone on last year’s roster come back for this upcoming season. It could be a brand new skill set the portal guys bring in, and who knows what that’ll do to Batoon’s historical turnover production.
I guess we’ll just have to wait until this fall to find out.
