As the Detroit Lions approach the midway point of their season, it’s been a weird and challenging week to care as deeply about football or celebrate the Vikings win. Most Lions fans, media members, and those within the franchise have been clinging to the progress reports and updates on team captain Jack Campbell, who remains hospitalized with a neck injury suffered in Week 8. The player who was awarded last season’s media Good Guy of the Year award had just welcomed his first child with his wife,
Megan, a son named Cooper, in July. And here was the new dad laid up in a hospital bed, still without full movement of his upper body. It was tough to harness that same giddy, football-frenzied feeling for the upcoming game until fans were reminded why this is such a likable team, as Campbell, the player who perfectly embodies this city and this franchise, remained at the forefront of players’ and coaches’ minds throughout the week. They spoke about how they’re playing for 46.
Defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard said, “Let’s play and prepare like 46. The way you honor him is to wipe those tears from your eyes and make sure you prepare and play like him.”
That’ll get you on board to root for the boys quickly. And suddenly, just like the countless games down the stretch in 2024 that were continually billed as “trap games,” you feel reassured that the Lions won’t let the 1-6 Miami Dolphins sneak up on them. They’ll be looking to fight and take care of business against the team that once called Dan Campbell its head coach and had Sheppard as one of its defensive anchors.
The Dolphins are going through a rebuilding period, but head coach Jeff Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan both come from Green Bay and are all too familiar with the Lions. They have their talent-deficient unit losing but competing, with a number of young players who could become foundational pieces, much like the early Dan Campbell Lions. This week’s preview will examine three key stats and matchups Detroit needs to control to keep its three-game winning streak alive, avoid giving the Dolphins life, and make 46 proud.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are sourced from NFL Pro, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, SumerSports, or Pro Football Focus.
Good Golly, Miss Ollie
This week’s preview will focus entirely on how the Lions’ defense will coalesce to cover for the absence of Jack Campbell, and how the Dolphins’ offense will understandably try to attack a defense without its green dot. Linebackers Derrick Barnes, Malcolm Rodriguez, and Trevor Nowaske are expected to handle the primary linebacker snaps, all with expanded roles and added responsibilities. That becomes particularly important given Miami’s recent success pounding the rock with Ollie Gordon since the De’Von Achane injury.
The Dolphins comparisons to the early Dan Campbell-era Lions have been prevalent this week, and one reason for that is Miami’s reliable and developing offensive line. From left to right, Patrick Paul, Kadyn Proctor, Aaron Brewer, Jonah Savaiinaea, and Austin Jackson form an above-average unit with a good mix of proven, reliable veterans and young, ascending players. They’ve started to give the Dolphins a fighting chance by being imposing and winning at the line of scrimmage.
Since Week 4, the Dolphins have shifted their rushing approach, leaning into their offensive line and Gordon’s preferred running schemes by utilizing power concepts on 13.8% of runs (5th) and man/duo concepts on 20.7% of rushing attempts (15th), with considerable success.
With power, which features a backside pulling guard attacking the frontside like a runaway freight train, Miami has averaged 5.7 yards per carry (7th), +0.219 EPA/rush (6th), a 56.3% rushing success rate (5th), and a 25.0% explosive run rate (4th) since Week 4. Power runs will require Detroit’s linebackers to not only process and flow quickly, but also meet the pulling guard in the hole without giving up ground and scrape from the backside. The linebackers need to be firing on all cylinders to match Miami’s physical, downhill approach.
The same goes for defending man/duo concepts, where the Dolphins’ offense has churned out 5.1 yards per carry (5th), +0.122 EPA/rush (5th), a 50.0% rushing success rate (5th), and an 8.3% explosive run rate (15th) since Week 4.
Interestingly, teams haven’t really tested the Lions’ defense with power runs this season, with only 3.1% of rushing attempts (31st) coming on power concepts. Detroit has faced just one such rush since Week 4, which went for minus-4 yards. The Lions have fared well in the small sample size, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry (t-11th) and no explosive plays on their limited snaps defending power. Teams have, however, tested the Lions’ defense up the gut with man/duo concepts, running them on 31.3% of rushing attempts (5th). Detroit has countered that volume by cleaning up those physical runs, allowing just a 33.3% rushing success rate (4th) and 0.6 yards after contact per rush (2nd).
An underrated key to preventing the Dolphins from outmuscling Detroit up the middle with power and man/duo concepts will be whether Tyleik Williams can play with his hair on fire against All-Pro center Aaron Brewer. Brewer understands leverage and angles better than most centers in the league, but he’s also a pivot player who stands just 6-foot-1 and 290 pounds. If the 6-foot-3 Williams, who notably lost a ton of weight this spring to get down to just 325 pounds, can win at the point of attack, overpower Brewer into the backfield, disrupt rushing lanes and timing, and congest the flow of the run play, it’ll go a long way toward making the linebackers’ jobs much easier.
God Forbid a Willis Gets a Little Motion
While the Dolphins’ offense under second-year holdover offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, formerly of the Houston Texans, doesn’t do much well outside of some aspects of its run designs, it does one thing often enough that it might challenge the Detroit Lions’ defense.
The Dolphins’ offense uses pre-snap motion on 74.1% of its snaps, the second-highest rate of any team in the NFL. The league average is only 59.2%, while the Lions’ offense, for comparison’s sake, sits at just 54.5% (24th). What’s interesting is that the Dolphins aren’t particularly better at rushing or passing the football with or without pre-snap motion, remaining bottom 10 in most metrics. The prevalence of the pre-snap motion itself is what’s important here.
The Lions’ defense hasn’t been tested as frequently against pre-snap motion this season, and when it has, there have been some struggles. Detroit has faced pre-snap motion on only 52.1% of its defensive snaps, the second-lowest rate in the NFL.
The Lions have actually excelled at defending the run against pre-snap motion, restricting opponents to -0.16 EPA/rush (4th) and just a 36.7% rushing success rate (4th). Detroit has managed to shut down offenses trying to gain an advantage in the numbers game, manipulate gap assignments, or use motion to stretch the defense geometrically, get defenders out of position, and create rushing lanes. However, issues arise in pass defense against pre-snap motion. Even if the Dolphins haven’t been particularly successful using it, there are still some concerns for Detroit.
Opponents have passed on 63.6% of plays featuring pre-snap motion against the Lions’ defense, the highest pass-to-run ratio in the NFL on such plays. Against pre-snap motion, Detroit’s pass defense has allowed +0.22 EPA/dropback (29th), a 54.1% passing success rate (26th), and an 11.6% explosive pass rate (27th).
The Lions’ coverage unit will need to communicate effectively and trust one another, particularly with a new green dot in either Derrick Barnes or Malcolm Rodriguez and defensive backs adjusting their coverage responsibilities based on the motion. They’ll need to keep an underrated Dolphins receiving group featuring the springy Malik Washington, promising rookies Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell, and Kevin Coleman, and tight end Greg Dulcich from getting loose and allowing Malik Willis to chunk the ball downfield.
Where There’s a Willis, There’s a Way
Since Week 5, Kelvin Sheppard and the Detroit Lions’ defense have blitzed on only 17.3% of dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the NFL (the Dolphins, interestingly, are the lowest at 16.1%). In that same span, comparatively, the Vikings have blitzed 75.6% of the time. It’s a noticeable difference for the Lions’ defense over the last month, considering that in Weeks 1-4, Detroit was tied with Miami at a 27.4% blitz rate (t-17th). Sheppard has dialed back the aggression, allowing more defenders to remain in coverage and letting the front four go to work.
That approach remains the best fit for this matchup, as Malik Willis, just like lawyer Walt Worsch with dog bites in Detroiters, is a bit of a mack when it comes to facing extra pass rushers.
Against the blitz, Willis has a 3:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio, a 94.8 passer rating (18th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks), 6.6 yards per attempt (22nd), and a 46.7% passing success rate (21st). While those numbers aren’t particularly impressive, they’re surprisingly better than his numbers when he doesn’t face a blitz. There’s a reason teams are blitzing the Dolphins on only 30.4% of dropbacks (18th).
As a team, the Dolphins are also averaging 7.1 yards after catch per reception against the blitz, the third-highest mark in the NFL behind only the Bills and Chiefs. Malik Washington is by far Willis’ favorite safety valve when opposing defenses bring extra heat. This season against the blitz, Washington has recorded 16 targets, 14 receptions, 177 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown, and +10.4 receiving EPA (11th). Washington’s 87.5% catch rate on blitz targets ranks tied for fourth among all wide receivers.
Kelvin Sheppard will need to have the patience to let his four-man pass rush get home against Willis. That also means having linebackers Derrick Barnes, Malcolm Rodriguez, and Trevor Nowaske spend less time firing at the quarterback and more time in coverage. Without their captain directing traffic, how Sheppard balances those coverage responsibilities and keeps Willis from exploiting the blitz will go a long way toward determining whether Detroit can make it four straight wins.
