For many Phoenix Mercury fans, the less said about the 2026 WNBA season, the better.
Entering the season, the team, already, was probably facing too-high expectations, as replicating their unexpected run to the 2025 WNBA Finals would be difficult.
But, not even making, or really even contending for, the playoffs?
So, what went wrong for Phoenix? What a needs to change if the team from the desert is to avoid a playoff drought? Or, is it time for the team to embrace a drought in order to experience eventually
brighter days? Let’s begin to work through Phoenix’s fate in 2027 and beyond by looking back at 2025 and 2026.
In the comments, give your takes on the Mercury. How do you assess Phoenix’s recent trajectory? What would your approach be moving forward?
What explains the Mercury’s fall from Finals contender to out of the playoffs?
Statistically, the 2025 Mercury were not an otherworldly team.
Per databallr, they finished the season with the sixth-best net rating, with the majority of their success coming on the defensive end. The third-best defense, the Mercury’s greatest strength was the defensive glass. They also won the possession game, ranking third in the league in how effectively they, in conjunction, limited their own turnovers, forced opponent turnovers and collected both defensive and offensive rebounds.
So, when Satou Sabally departed during the 2026 offseason, it was reasonable enough for the organization to believe that, based on their 2025 strengths, they could replace the more offensively-titled Sabally in the aggregate. That the Mercury excavated contributions from unheralded role players in 2025 likely gave them confidence in their ability to conjure similar contributors in 2026.
But, Phoenix’s offseason was a bit too quiet, with little buzz about the team even attempting to attract a star free agent to fill the void left by Sabally. The organization then invited a ton of training camp invitees, beginning their search for pieces to support Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Cooper.
And it all looked amazing on opening day. The Mercury, it appeared, had done it again, as a ring-night rout of the Las Vegas Aces seemingly announced that the 2025 runners up were out for revenge.
That, unfortunately, was the high point, as the Mercury ultimately muddled through 2026 as they failed to find the right combination of players around Thomas and Copper.
The opening game offensive explosion proved to be a mirage, with the team finishing 12th on that side of the ball. The defense dropped to 11th. While controlling the possessions remained a strength for the Mercury, that characteristic was not as strong of a strength. All that resulted in a net rating that ranked 11th in league, according to databallr.
Copper, actually, had a more productive season in 2026, with all but her 3-point shooting improving from 2025. Thomas’ numbers saw a slight drop across the board, although she remained the team’s most impactful player according to most advanced metrics.
The Mercury, of course, made a midseason move in an effort to avoid their sink into sub-mediocrity, sending out their first-round pick in the 2027 WNBA Draft and Monique Akoa Makani for Kelsey Plum.
Dealing with an injury prior to the trade, Plum would play just five games and 105 minutes in Phoenix, resulting in no relevant evidence as to whether a new Big 3 of Thomas, Copper and Plum could be the core of a contender.
What’s the plan for 2027 and beyond in Phoenix?
It would be surprising if Phoenix did not prioritize committing to the Thomas-Copper-Plum core, with the organization going all out to retain Plum, which presumably would require signing her to a contract similar to those of Thomas and Copper, both of whom will command over $1.2 million in 2027.
That would leave the Mercury with over $3.5 million invested in three players who are all at least 32 years old. Although, with the salary cap projected to rise to around $8.25 million, the organization would have the opportunity to surround them with a more competent and competitive supporting cast.
But, is that the smartest decision?
Should Phoenix abandon their win-now ambitions and not only not re-sign Plum to a high-dollar contract but also look to move on from Thomas and Copper? Could the team, drained of draft picks, attempt to restock their coffers and totally refresh things with a deep rebuild?
Or, is there a middle ground the franchise could pursue, where they avoid overinvesting in an aging core while remaining competitive?
The Mercury have options. It’s unclear, however, if they have any good ones.
The lack of clarity about the 2026 season, where the lineup instability that resulted from injures and absences make it difficult to discern how good the Mercury could have been if more things had fallen in their favor, only complicates the decisions facing Phoenix.
