As we do every week in this space, we’re looking at some stats from the Green Bay Packers’ most recent game, courtesy of SumerSports. Today we’re looking at the 20-17 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 7.
Offense
The Packers had a nice personnel mix in this game, leaning a bit heavier on 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) than we’ve seen from some other games, but this feels like their best mix for the team they have.
The Packers didn’t have a great day on offense overall, but 11 was their best personnel grouping.
It was slightly underperforming in terms of Success Rate (34.9% in 11, 35.7% in 12), but it was their best by EPA (+0.21 EPA per Play). They turned in a +0.37 EPA per Play on passes out of 11 personnel.
Jordan Love was under pressure on 37.0% of his dropbacks, which is right in line with the Lions pressure rate on the season (36.7%). The biggest difference is the time to pressure. On the season, the Lions are averaging 2.65 seconds to pressure (16th in the league). In this game, they averaged 2.4 seconds to pressure (which would the second best rate in the league this year, just below the Giants at 2.38 seconds). So this offensive line essentially turned a middle-of-the-road pass rush team into the second best pass rush in the league. The offensive line is functional in a way that it wasn’t in the first couple of weeks, but it certainly is still pretty far below average.
For the game, Love averaged 2.61 seconds to throw, which feels like an eternity based on some of the games we’ve seen this season (this marked his 3rd longest time to throw of the season, behind the Cowboys at 2.88 and Bears at 2.67). That 2.61 average would have been the 2nd fastest time to throw among all QBs in the 2025 season (behind Aaron Rodgers at 2.59 seconds and just ahead of Tua Tagovailoa at 2.65 seconds).
Despite all that, Love averaged 10.9 ADOT (Average Depth of Target) and an EPA per Play of +0.14. If not for the drops (which I have not yet charted), the EPA per Play and Success Rate numbers would look quite a bit better. Another rough day for the receivers (and running backs) catching the ball.
Tough day for play action. The Packers have not been a heavy play action team this year (20.1%, 25th in the league in play action rate), but it has been a solid play for them (+0.32 EPA per Play, 5th in the league). In this game they had a play action rate of 20% and an EPA per Play of -0.64. Again, I need to chart the drops at some point and see how much of an impact those had on some of these numbers.
The Packers went with a more pass-heavy attack in this game. They were at a 70.8% pass rate. That’s higher than I think they’d like to be (somewhere in the 65% range seems to be where they’re aiming), but, based on how the run game has gone, I don’t mind a 70% pass rate. That pass rate was pretty consistent by down. Here are their pass rates by down in this game:
1st: 66.7%
2nd: 76.5%
3rd: 70%
4th: 70.6%
Their 1st down passing EPA was their best down of the day (+0.825 EPA per Play, 57.1% Success Rate).
The return of Josh Jacobs was…fine? He finished with 36 yards on 11 attempts, with 30 of those yards coming after contact. Here are his numbers by defensive box count:
He looked better than what the Packers have had so far, but not massively so.
His stuff as a receiver looked a bit better. He had 5 catches (on 7 targets) for 55 yards (+1.25 EPA per Reception). His Average Depth of Target of 5.1 yards means he was being targeted downfield. In fact, he currently stands as the only Packers running back who has been targeted past the line of scrimmage. Here are the ADOT numbers for the other Packers running backs:
Kaleb Johnson: -0.33
MarShawn Lloyd: -0.69
Pierre Strong: -0.7
Chris Brooks: -1.4
The running game may not be transformed, but if they’re willing to target the running backs more on vertical routes, I’ll take it. (But also catch the passes that hit you in the hands in the end zone.)
MarShawn Lloyd turning in his best EPA on runs outside the tackle feels pretty on brand…
…but also he looked better this week than he had. A little more decisive. Some strong finishes. He may never turn into anything, but I thought there was a bit of promise this week. Or maybe that’s pure hope.
Defense
The Lions went heavy personnel in this game:
That led to the Packers leaning more into Base Personnel than we’ve seen over the past few weeks. They were in Nickel more they have shown this season based on the heavier personnel usage, but I don’t know if that’s because that’s what they wanted to do or if the injury to Zaire Franklin changed their approach.
Personally, I don’t mind leaning more on Nickel. I don’t really love any scenario that leads to Javon Bullard being taken off the field.
Not a great day for the pass rush group. They blitzed 30.3% of the time but only pressured Goff on 24.2% of dropbacks (15.1% below the NFL average). Gannon has done a nice job of creating a pass rush this season (and some nice individual efforts have popped up), but this is the first game where I truly felt the loss of Micah Parsons. They did some nice work against the run (their 18.2% Tackle For Loss Rate was 7.1% above the NFL Average), but Goff felt comfortable for the vast majority of the day.
Albums listened to: Michael Kiwanuka – FUDGE
