Over the first handful of games, the San Antonio Spurs have set out to make a statement. Prior to last night’s loss to the Lakers, they sat at 12th in defensive rating, 12th in net rating, and, perhaps surprisingly, 11th in offensive rating (all adjusted for strength of schedule per dunksandthrees.com).
While much of that is rightfully attributed to their young superstar, Victor Wembanyama, he is getting some help early on from his even younger teammates on the margins. Notable is one rookie, Dylan
Harper.
Harper was selected 2nd overall and is making noise wherever he can. However, one skill that jumps out immediately, and has proven to be crucial to success in this “pace-and-space” era of basketball, is his transition scoring.
A quick glimpse into his highlights versus the Brooklyn Nets and it’s filled with transition buckets. His combination of speed, footwork, handle, and awareness gives him the toolkit to be a go-to scorer on the break.
San Antonio was decent in transition last year, and early in this season has shown signs of improvement. Over the 138 minutes Harper has been on the floor, the team is plus 20.8 points per 100 possessions of transition play; they added 6.4 points per 100 possessions overall through transition play, ranking in the 97th percentile and 98th percentile, respectively.
Honing in on his individual numbers, Harper is averaging an extremely efficient 1.6 points per transition possession and drawing a foul 30 percent of the time.
Of course, these numbers are not sustainable and should be taken with a heaping bowl of salt, if not only for the fact that they are derived from 6 games and only a handful of possessions (against Brooklyn at that). They will, inevitably, start to regress to the mean as the sample size grows. That being said, there is reason to believe there is more of this to come.
As alluded to, these buckets haven’t come from clear paths. But rather a combination of his skills. This can come in the form of a euro-step, hesitation, or an and-1.
Each one of these showed that Harper isn’t intimidated to have to beat a defender in space. He’s too talented and will only add to that tool bag from here.
This speculation compounds with the fact that San Antonio still has yet to debut what might be the fastest point guard in the league, De’Aaron Fox. Historically, since the 2021-2022 season, Fox himself has hovered around the 90th percentile in transition plus-minus, with the exception of last year.
This then gives the defense a “pick your poison” scenario when trying to defend fast-breaks if the two guards are on the floor together. Conversely, it ensures the team always has a go-to guy on the break if their minutes are staggered. It just gives Mitch Johnson a more diverse hand of cards to play with. What’s more, this is only one of many skills Harper has exhibited in his short career thus far.
The number 2 pick was a surprise to the Spurs but Harper’s talent shouldn’t be. It’s rare for a rookie to contribute to winning right away, let alone this quickly, but Harper has already shown he is more than capable.
Unfortunately, Harper is sidelined with a calf strain and there is no timetable for his return. Spurs fans anxiously await his return.
