The Buffalo Bills are set to play a gauntlet of quarterbacks in the 2026 regular season.
Nowadays there are much better ways than in the past to determine how difficult a team’s schedule will likely be. Warren Sharp among others intelligently use Vegas’ win totals for the opponents for each team, which is significantly better than the previous year’s win-loss record, which for a long time was the only way it was done.
Back then, as a counter to what always felt like a silly way to decide strength schedule,
I always thought examining the list of quarterbacks a team would face provided a much better idea of schedule difficulty.
Let’s do that here, by power ranking the quarterbacks the Bills are set to face in 2026:
As a reminder, the teams:
Home: Jets, Patriots, Dolphins, Lions, Bears, Chiefs, Chargers, Ravens
Away: Jets, Patriots, Dolphins, Broncos, Raiders, Packers, Vikings, Texans, and Rams
14. Geno Smith – New York Jets
It’s strange that Smith is back with the Jets, isn’t it? For a while, during draft season, it always took me an extra few to seconds remember who was Gang Green’s quarterback, then it’d hit me. Smith’s early-30s revitalization seemingly vanished a season ago with the Raiders when he threw 19 touchdowns to a league-high 17 interceptions. In 2025, Smith posted his lowest passer rating (84.7) since 2017 and lowest yards-per-attempt average (6.8) since 2020. Don’t get me wrong, Smith is still a reasonably talented passer, yet at nearly 36 years old, it feels right placing him at this spot in these rankings.
13. Kirk Cousins / Fernando Mendoza – Las Vegas Raiders
Cousins is older than Smith, and just a few years ago, it wouldn’t be insane ranking Cousins higher. Out of nowhere, after losing his starting gig in Atlanta to Michael Penix Jr., Mr. Fully Guaranteed Contract played some respectable football — with some figures nearly identical to Smith’s. His passer rating a season ago was 84.8, and he averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt. I’m fully aware of how rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle, and I did view the No. 1 overall pick as an advanced version of Cousins himself. Yet Mendoza’s presence here as an option for the Raiders led to Las Vegas having a higher ranking than Smith and the Jets.
12. C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans
I don’t know what to do with Stroud, so I won’t be offended if you question this spot in the rankings. He’s one of the craftiest, methodically accurate pocket passers in football.
Yet at his age, Stroud should be routinely making better decisions. He’s also demonstrated a downward trend overall since his stellar rookie campaign as opposed to across-the-board improvement. For someone who can place the ball surgically all over the field — we’ve seen him do it in the NFL — his Adjusted Completion rate of 69.4% in 2025 ranked 39th out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks.
11. Malik Willis – Green Bay Packers
I’ve been a Willis fan since his days as a prospect. I thought he was criminally underrated coming out of Liberty despite realizing there was rawness that needed to be worked out of his game. In his auditions last year in Green Bay, after years of schooling, Willis demonstrated his potential as a dual-threat weapon at quarterback.
He has a strong arm, plenty of juice as a runner, and has sharpened his accuracy. I just don’t trust the receiving weapons around him in Miami right now.
10. Kyler Murray – Minnesota Vikings
I think Murray is going to be pretty darn good in Minnesota in 2025 — how could he not be? Earlier in his career, with a former quarterback as his head coach and DeAndre Hopkins to throw the football, Murray hovered into the MVP conversation in Arizona.
Now he gets Kevin O’Connell, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and Kevin O’Connell calling the plays. Plus, he essentially took the entire 2025 season off due to injury. He should be full-go in 2026, and he’ll only be 29 in August.
9. Bo Nix – Denver Broncos
I’ll admit — this will be the most controversial placement in these rankings. I have just never been a Nix believer — dating back to his time as a prospect. Now, of course, I’m always open to changing my opinion based on new information, yet individually I haven’t really seen any of that with Nix.
He’s in a tremendously QB-friendly system with one of the smartest play-designing head coaches of the modern era in Sean Payton. His yards-per-attempt average actually decreased from 6.7 as a rookie to 6.4 a season ago. Nix did have the 10th-highest Big-Time Throw % among qualifying starters in 2025 at 5.0%, yet his Turnover-Worthy Play % went from 1.8% in 2024 to 2.9% — a sizable jump — and he had 10 games in the regular season and playoffs last year with a completion rate under 65%. There’s still some promise with Nix, yet I think his reputation exceeds his actual needle-moving power at quarterback right now. He has become one of the most difficult quarterbacks to sack, which is a valuable trait to possess.
Then again, this is not a ranking of a quarterback’s traits as much as it is about said quarterback’s offensive capabilities, and with Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and now Waddle, Nix has a rather scary wideout trio at his disposal.
8. Jared Goff – Detroit Lions
I feel confident in what the Lions will get from Goff this season — heck, his last three seasons as Detroit’s starter have been nearly identical. He’s typically a well-oiled machine from inside the pocket when kept on schedule and when he doesn’t have to regularly drive the football through super tight windows further down the field. He knows how to get it out of his hands quickly.
He’s also the most statuesque higher-end quarterback in football. His limitations are clear. The Lions have a nice assembly of weapons for Goff too headlined by Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams, the latter of whom is fresh off the first 1,000-yard season of his career in 2025. Can’t forget Sam LaPorta either and one of the game’s most ferocious offensive lines.
7. Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers
Love has seemingly drifted into underrated status, maybe because the Packers haven’t done it in the playoffs just yet. In the regular season, he’s become a staple of high-caliber efficiency. Sure, some of that is due to his Matt LaFleur, easily one of the smartest, most creative play-callers in football.
But Love is a deceptively capable talent with a sizable arm, quality mobility, and always improving accuracy. He will be without Romeo Doubs, who signed in New England, and Dontayvion Wicks. The Packers did spend a first-round pick on Matthew Golden in 2025, so they’ll be looking for the former University of Texas wideout to step into a larger role in Year 2.
6. Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears
As a draft guy, I’m always drawn to traits, and Williams has better traits than Love, which is why I’m comfortable with this ranking right now. Sure, it he’s not as settled into the speed/complexity of the NFL game, but why should he be — Love has attempted nearly 400 more passes in the regular season than Williams.
As we saw down the stretch in 2025 — particularly late in games — Williams can make exquisite throws in what appear to be the most precarious of situations. He’s a talented and surprisingly rugged scrambler too. There’ll be an occasional wobbler or bad decision with Williams. No doubt. He can erase those mistakes with a collection of ridiculous plays later in the game. Plus, we are now fully aware of Ben Johnson’s genius as a coordinator.
5. Justin Herbert – Los Angeles
I know, I know — Herbert appears to be more hype than substance, yet I’m buying into his fit with Mike McDaniel, who got a ridiculous amount of production out of the significantly less talented Tua Tagovailoa for years in Miami.
Now, Herbert won’t have the speed advantages at receiver afforded to McDaniel with Tyreek Hill and Waddle over the past few seasons, yet I don’t think his offensive schematic mastery is completely contingent upon having a massive talent advantage over his opponent. And, I still cannot quit Herbert given his size, arm talent, and athletic prowess.
4. Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
I will be the first to tell you that over the past two or three seasons, Mahomes hasn’t been that close to being one of the best quarterbacks in football. I get that he’ll be coming back from tearing his ACL last December. And he did have one of the two worst games of his career against the Bills in Orchard Park a season ago.
Despite all that — am I ready to write him off? No way. Should the Bills feel comfortable when he steps onto the field against their new-look defense. Absolutely not. I was ready to rank him higher… then remembered the Chiefs essentially made no changes to their pass-catching group this offseason.
3. Drake Maye – New England Patriots
Yes, Maye was bad in the second half of his loss to the Bills in 2025. He did not perform well in the playoffs and got steamrolled in the Super Bowl against one of the best defenses of the modern era. It’s true too — Maye faced a reasonably easy schedule during the regular season. I still think his talent is elite level and was super impressed with the throws he regularly made both inside and outside the pocket in 2025.
There absolutely is some Allen to his improvisational game. He’s reasonably tough, plays with imagination, and has a rocket to fire fastballs through tiny windows at all levels of the field. Maye’s talent is frankly too outstanding to ignore. He’s going to be a stud, if you don’t consider him one already.
2. Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens
Jackson is one of the most prolific dual-threat quarterbacks in NFL history. And while I don’t necessarily view him as regularly elite passer — particularly when facing quality defenses — he certainly can shred secondaries that aren’t tightly connected.
Essentially all of his numbers regressed in an injury-plagued 2025. Then again, his passer rating dipped to 103.8, and he still averaged over 5.0 yards per rush. When healthy, Jackson is still apt to go off in any contest, and I’m assuming his explosiveness and long speed as a runner make him one of the most difficult quarterbacks to gameplan for in the NFL.
1. Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams
I have deep trust in Stafford and Sean McVay together. After all, Stafford is the reigning MVP. He’ll throw passes to the super-gifted Puka Nacua, a Davante Adams who seemingly hasn’t lost much juice, and a darn good trio of tight ends. Not to mention, Los Angeles has quietly built one of the sturdiest offensive lines in the NFC.
On the road, Stafford in McVay’s scheme will be the most difficult challenge for the Bills defense during the 2026 regular season.
