There’s usually a moment during the game where I catch a feeling of how the rest of the game will go, if it’s a close game. The fast break dunk, the corner three, the steal and a layup… something that gives you the foresight of a win or a loss. Sometimes that moment is sooner in the game, sometimes later. Usually it’s a play someone makes, but sometimes it’s one they don’t.
Against Auburn it was Jayden Stone’s layup to stop an 7-0 Auburn run, after Mizzou was up 13 and saw their lead dwindle to 6.
Going up 8, I knew they’d find a way to win. In the LSU game, Rashad King sank a 3 to take a 6 point lead over Missouri. It was another example of those Tigers making enough shots to stem these Tigers comeback hopes.
With top 25 Georgia in the building, it was a Jacob Crews three pointer off a Mark Mitchell pass which caromed off the back iron with 9:29 to play. This three would have extended the lead to 8 points. The crowd would have exploded. This is the type of three which had gone down for Mizzou over the better part of the last two years, at least in Mizzou Arena.
Since the beginning of the 2024-25 season, Missouri has played 32 games at home and won 29 of them. Yes 17 of those wins are against mid and low major teams, but in the 12 that weren’t there always seemed to be a big made three which gave Missouri the requisite padding they needed. But this miss caused the momentum, and a momentum heavy game, to swing back to Georgia just enough to take it down the wire. After Crews miss, Smurf Millender buried a three on the same side of the floor and what might have been an 8 point lead was now cut to 2 points. Neither team would get a lead past 4 points the rest of the way.
Once Crews missed that shot, I figured Missouri would lose the game. This season has been uneven, the team rotations are uneven, the availability roster is uneven. Grab the momentum there and I think they cruise to a win. When he missed and Millender answered the bell, it felt like if Mizzou were to pull out a win, they were going to have to wrestle it from the jaws of fate. But as Shawn Phillips failed to contain Millender on the game deciding play, it was sealed.
Missouri’s tournament hopes aren’t dashed, but they’re on life support. They’ve watched three very winnable games slip away from them since the start of SEC play. And after starting 2-0, losing three of the next four is tough to swallow.
But this league isn’t good, and every game is likely to be some kind of cocktail mix of what we’ve experienced so far. Close, late, and left up to the fates.
TEAM STATS
That isn’t to remove player agency from the equation. After all, that’s what it’s really about. Players make plays, and neither team truly seized the game. Georgia was aggressive, but pretty inefficient. They needed 19 offensive rebounds to buoy a broken shooting night, and Missouri still clipped them on the eFG% battle.
What’s interesting about the rebounds is Missouri gave up 4 offensive rebounds on one possession (yes we all remember watching that), but they were otherwise solid on the glass. Both teams missed a LOT of shots so the raw numbers are high, but Mizzou had 11 second chance points, Georgia had 10. And save that single possession, the rebounding numbers were basically equal. Plus, on that one possession those four offensive rebounds resulted in a single point. So it sucked to watch, but it wasn’t the worst thing in the game.
For me there were two real key issues:
- Turnovers: again this Missouri team just does not take care of the ball well enough. Missouri turned it over 9 times in the 1st half, and those 9 TOs generated 13 points for Georgia. Missouri did force 8 turnovers in the same half, but only scored 5 points off them. So even when they were getting the ball off a turnover, it wasn’t really going anywhere.
- Free Throws: don’t look now but Missouri has shot 91.7% and 77.8% from the FT line in the last two games. After much was made about their shooting coming off the Auburn and Ole Miss games, the Tigers have gotten a lot better… the problem is they aren’t getting to the line as much. Which has been a pattern all year, but the free throw rate against Georgia was the lowest of the season.
Now, I do have a lot of issues with how the game was officiated last night. I thought they had a soft whistle in the first half, which allowed the game to get overly physical, and led to the amount of altercations we saw in the second half. Did this lose Missouri the game? I don’t think so, it went both ways. But when the road team is shooting that many more free throws against a home team known for getting to the free throw line, you might have missed the mark. Or missed Mark Mitchell getting fouled 6-7 times.
INDIVIDUAL STATS
Trifecta: Jayden Stone, Mark Mitchell, T.O. Barrett
On the season: Mark Mitchell 36, Jayden Stone 21, Jacob Crews 19, Anthony Robinson 17, Jevon Porter 5, Sebastian Mack 3, Trent Pierce 3, T.O. Barrett 2, Annor Boateng 1
This really felt like a night where if you get anything from one other player, you’re probably walking away with a win. Or if anyone had a great night, Instead you got good nights from Mark and Stone, and TO was solid. Trent Pierce was fine, and Shawn Phillips had a few highlights, and Crews was solid enough. But you needed just a bit more.
Stone started off struggling, and that kind of set the tone for the rest of the team. Maybe it’s just they don’t have the depth, because we had another game where Dennis Gates basically went 7 deep. He got some productive minutes (although several missed shots) from Sebastian Mack and then parked him. Luke Northweather continues to get one rotation before getting pulled. Frankly it would’ve been nice to see a few more minutes from Trent Pierce, who wasn’t great but was sound.
I’m still befuddled by the regression of Anthony Robinson. Ant’s inability to just be the least amount of productive is confusing. Since being the guy we thought we’d see all year against Florida, Ant is 1/13 from three point range, 8/20 from inside the arc, and while he’s made his last 6 free throws, he’s turned the ball over 12 times in those 5 games. It’s just confounding, and one of the primary reasons why the Tigers are mirred in this type of season. Good Ant makes them a lock of a tournament team, but we’re so seldom getting Good Ant, it’s beginning to make you wonder if he’s still in there.
For whatever it’s worth, I didn’t sit long with this loss. Mostly because there are versions of this team I don’t enjoy watching. When they play ‘smaller’ (i.e. without a true 5) they’re vastly more entertaining and it seems like their ceiling is much higher. When they have players, not named Mark Mitchell, occupying space in and around the rim, the offense gets claggy and it feels like they need to make jump shots to be effective at all.
But jumpshooting can come and go. Gates has shown he can draw up offense that gets rim looks. They’re playing a rotation that makes those rim looks more difficult.
Perhaps the tradeoff here is they’ve been better defensively. But a defensive, low possession game has resulted in them being where they are. Mid 50s in KenPom, and on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament. In what was supposed to be a season where you could take a step forward, they’ve taken a substantial step back.
All isn’t lost. The season isn’t over. But this was an important game they needed to win. And on the final defensive play they had a 7’1 center not known for his defense unable to stop a 5’10 point guard from getting a layup, while fouling him. It’s just not tenable.
I’ve moved the glossary to a static page at RockM+ to reduce the size of the bottom of this post.
So if you’re looking for what any of these stats mean, Check out the Glossary!
In attempting to update Study Hall, I’ve moved away from Touches/Possession and moving into the Rates a little more. This is a little experimental so if there’s something you’d like to see let me know and I’ll see if there’s an easy visual way to present it.
If there’s something you’d like to see more of an explanation on, drop a note and let me know!
