Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 15 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: FS1
- Location: Nippert Stadium — Cincinnati, OH
- Spread: Cincinnati (-6.5)
- Over/under: 56.5
- All-time series: No previous matchups
Setting the scene
Three years ago, this would have been an American Conference vs. Pac-12 matchup, but in 2025, these are two Big 12 teams enjoying tremendous bounce-back seasons. Cincinnati (7-2, 5-1 Big 12) and Arizona
(6-3, 3-3 Big 12) will meet on the gridiron for the first time in their histories, with likely only the victor holding a ranking when the dust settles at Nippert Stadium.
All eyes will be on the quarterback matchup between Brendan Sorsby and Noah Fifita in what should be an offensive-oriented duel.
Arizona Wildcats outlook
Arizona finished 4-8 in its Big 12 debut season, but the Wildcats are perhaps the quietest lurker in the conference. They’re already bowl eligible at 6-3, and two of their losses transpired on the final play to 8-win teams — dropping a double overtime heartbreaker to BYU and falling on a last-second field goal at Houston.
Brent Brennan’s team rides a 2-game win streak, decimating Colorado and slipping past Kansas in a close one last Saturday. One reason for Arizona’s renewed success is the return of high-level quarterbacking from Noah Fifita. The junior arrived on the scene as one of the best quarterbacks during the 2023 campaign, and after a down 2024, he’s back to a dominant force. His 2,200 passing yards rank fourth in the Big 12, and he’s been exceptionally efficient with 23 touchdowns compared to four interceptions.
Without a first-round NFL Draft selection like Tetairoa McMillan in the lineup, Fifita distributes the wealth quite evenly. Five different Arizona wide receivers have between 250 and 420 receiving yards on the year, with Javin Wheatley and Kris Hutson leading the way. Tre Spivey, Luke Wysong, and Chris Hunter are all key wide receivers operating in this spread offense which relies heavily on 10 and 11 personnel.
The offense is in its best shape with the ball in Fifita’s hands, but the ground game can be effective from time-to-time. That’s been the case during the 2-game win streak, and the Wildcats establish the run through a 3-back rotation. Ismail Mahdi is the main guy with 597 yards on 6.8 yards per carry, but Quincy Craig and Kedrick Reescano have also produced 90+ yard outings.
If there’s one weakness the offense presents, it’s quarterback protection. Arizona allows 2.7 sacks per game to rank 14th in the Big 12. Pass protection was a major reason the offense only managed 24 points vs. Kansas last week as Fifita took five sacks in the closely-contested matchup.
Arizona’s defense is also enjoying a revival this year. The Wildcats are 6-0 when limiting teams to 20 points or fewer and rank 25th nationally in scoring defense. Arizona is solid against the run, stifling opponents to 3.8 yards per carry. But where Danny Gonzales’ defense really shines is through the air, ranking seventh nationally in fewest passing yards surrendered and fifth in lowest opponent completion percentage.
The Wildcats feature some of the best safety talent in the country, headlined by the pairing of Genesis Smith and Dalton Johnson. Johnson leads the team with 68 tackles and has a pair of interceptions, while Smith has 53 stops, seven pass breakups, and has regularly played a hand in the turnover battle. Arizona is tied for 10th in the FBS with a +8 margin and 11 of its 12 interceptions stem from defensive backs.
Cincinnati is more than just a passing attack though, and Arizona has a challenging battle in the trenches when the Bearcats run the ball. Defensive tackle Deshawn McKnight will be the disruptive presence looking to halt the running backs, ranking atop the Wildcats with nine tackles as a 6’3”, 299 pound force.
Cincinnati Bearcats outlook
Cincinnati is fresh off a bye week, and it’s been a while since we saw the Bearcats in action. Their last game was a late-night affair in Salt Lake City, accompanied by the College GameDay spotlight. While Cincinnati could not rise to the occasion in a 45-14 defeat at Utah, there is still good news for Scott Satterfield and the Bearcats — they control their own destiny for a Big 12 championship.
Utah ended a 7-game Cincinnati win streak, and the Bearcats built up plenty of goodwill during that run, realizing the explosive potential of their offense in the process. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby throws one of the best deep balls in college football, and he exhibits an extraordinary touchdown-to-interception ratio of 21-to-2. When Sorsby is free of an interception, Cincinnati is a perfect 7-0. Last game was an uncharacteristic outing in the accuracy department for the junior, completing just 11-of-33 passes. But his verticality in his passing game still allowed him to produce 221 yards, and he’ll take frequent deep shots on a weekly basis.
Cincinnati’s greatest upgrade from 2024 to 2025 is its wide receiver corps. Louisiana Tech and Texas A&M transfer Cyrus Allen is the deep threat Sorsby severely lacked last year, and Allen owns a Big 12-high 10 touchdowns on 514 yards receiving. Caleb Goodie (listed questionable) and Jeff Caldwell are other viable receivers in this offense, and any one of them is capable for breaking loose for a 100-yard game.
The Bearcats offer a good passing attack, but they’re even more elite as a rushing team. They are one of four programs, along with Navy, Oregon, and Arkansas, to average at least 6.0 yards per carry on the season, and that can be attributed to excellent offensive line play. Oftentimes the line paves ways for the running backs to pick up 7-8 yards before first contact, and Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor are the beneficiaries. Walker possesses a low center of gravity and fights well through contact for extra yards, posting 533 on the year. Pryor is the more explosive option at 7.2 yards per carry, although his status is unknown. He missed the Utah game due to an ankle injury suffered Oct. 25, but the bye week could assist with his recovery.
Cincinnati will need a stronger defensive effort to push past the Wildcats. Defending the air has been a struggle at times for the Bearcats, which allowed 445 passing yards to Kansas and 314 to Iowa State — although this was impressively fixed against a potent Baylor passing game. Still, Cincinnati wields the nation’s 86th-ranked run defense, and teams can move the ball well on this unit. One factor may be fatigue, considering the Bearcats’ offense ranks dead last in the FBS in time of possession.
But when it comes to the red zone, Cincinnati often steps up to the occasion, only surrendering 17 touchdowns on 31 attempts. Former All-American defensive tackle Dontay Corleone is the leader to watch on this unit. His stats may not show much, but his chaotic impact is clear in the film room for opposing offensive linemen. Leading tackler Jake Golday is another name to watch, tallying a team-high 80 tackles as the chief run stopper for the Bearcats. The group that will be tested most, however, is the secondary. Cincinnati only has two interceptions this year, so playmakers from the defensive backfield like Matthew McDoom and Christian Harrison aim to create some game-swinging plays Saturday at Nippert.
Prediction
This matchup welcomes an offensive showcase between two electrifying quarterback arms. Noah Fifita and Brendan Sorsby are both capable of delivering shots all over the yard, distributing the goods to a variety of receivers and doing it without making mistakes. Cincinnati has participated in a fair share of shootouts before, including games against Kansas and Iowa State, and this one should take similar form. The Bearcats’ offense is explosive and moves the ball quite well through both facets. While Arizona’s offense doesn’t succeed at the same clip, the Wildcats offer the strong defense in this matchup to compromise for that.
It will be a back-and-forth affair with a slew of 20, even 30+ yard completions, but Noah Fifita and the Wildcats can pierce through the Cincinnati secondary in the fourth quarter to pull one out on the road.
Prediction: Arizona 38, Cincinnati 34
