The ideal baseball lineup has players with high on-base percentages near the top of the order, setting the table for the sluggers in the middle. Optimizing a lineup like this can allow a team to score a few more runs per year. On a given day it may not make much of a difference, but over a 162-game season it could net your team an extra win or two. That’s nothing to sneeze at, and teams—especially those on the fringes of the playoff discussion—should be doing whatever they can to maximize runs.
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topic of lineup optimization has become a hot one as Orioles camp comes to a close. Manager Craig Albernaz was asked about it over the weekend, specifically who he planned to put in the leadoff spot on Opening Day. The skipper kept it vague with his answer.
“It all depends,” Albernaz said. “Depends on the hitter, depends on the pitcher, depends on the team we’re playing. Depends on a lot of different stuff.”
It also depends on who is healthy. That is what has really complicated things this spring. Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg are two guys that would probably top the list of consideration. But both will open the season on the IL instead.
MLB.com’s Jake Rill indicates that Albernaz won’t be committing to any one guy day in and day out. But he does seem to prefer either Gunnar Henderson or Taylor Ward in the role for now. While Henderson has been with Team USA, Ward has been getting a lot of at-bats in the top spot.
Ward does not scream “leadoff hitter” when you look at his recent numbers. He’s been a run producer that hits home runs. But he has experience in the role. The 763 plate appearances he has batting first are his most of any spot in the order, and the numbers have been good (.259/.326/.456, 32 homers). He’s also a patient hitter that doesn’t chase much and walks at a solid clip (11.3%). Putting him first and then, presumably, Henderson second, could benefit both. Pitchers may be more likely to give Ward pitches to hit, and it would also give Henderson traffic on the bases more often.
For whatever it’s worth, Ward does not seem to care when or where he hits.
“Really, it doesn’t matter to me. I mean, hit me ninth, eighth, I really don’t care,” Ward said. “I try to treat it like the same thing, just all the same. I like to keep it simple like that. So wherever Alby wants to put me, I’m good for it.”
The leadoff spot has also been Henderson’s most frequent role throughout his career. Over 789 plate appearances he owns a .276/.347/.533 line with 42 homers. Clearly, he is better than Ward, but putting Henderson first could be a waste of his slugging potential. He’s healthy this year and swinging the bat well for Team USA. If he is going to bounce back and return to the 37 home run form he had in 2024, it would be wise to have that happen with more runners on base. Moving him down a spot in the order makes sense.
But before we go and etch all of this in stone, let’s be clear that committing to any one lineup at this point in the year is foolish. So much is going to change throughout the summer. Players will get hurt. Hot streaks and cold streaks will pop up. A certain pitching matchup will present itself. Someone other than Ward or Henderson will lead off at some point. All of this could completely change Albernaz’s way of thinking.
Consider a few alternatives.
When healthy, Holliday and Westburg are going to be in the conversation. Holliday led off more than any other Orioles hitter in 2025. It didn’t go great (.236/.311/.366), but he is still young. You have to think the Orioles want him to eventually own the role if he can produce. Westburg has hit all over the lineup, usually settling into the second or fifth spots. But he can do a a job anywhere. He feels like the guy they will turn to if the lineup is in the midst of a bad run and needs some sort of spark.
Colton Cowser began the 2025 season as the Orioles’ leadoff hitter. At the time, he had a reputation for controlling the strike zone. His nightmarish campaign may have altered some perspectives, but it’s entirely possible he gets back to that point.
Dylan Beavers showed impressive plate discipline during his first taste of big league baseball. He walked 19 percent of the time and rarely chased pitches out of the strike zone. Putting a rookie atop a lineup with playoff aspirations right out of the gate might be a bit much, but Beavers could force the Orioles hand at some point.
And what about Adley Rutschman? His performance over the last season and a half suggests he should be in the bottom third of the order rather than the leadoff spot. But it wasn’t that long ago when he looked like the best hitting catcher in baseball. His 2023 season saw hime finish with a .374 on base percentage. If he could get back to that sort of production, he might be the team’s best option to hit first. He will need to prove that he’s actually back to that level before getting the distinction as everyday leadoff hitter.
The reality is that the Orioles do not have an “ideal” leadoff hitter on their roster. But they have plenty of competent big league players that they can cycle in and out to find advantageous matchups and put runners on base ahead of Henderson and Pete Alonso. That should be a recipe for success no matter who actually ends up in the top spot day to day.
