Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country.
With 17 games left to play in the 2026 season, the Orioles “tragic number” is 13. That is, the combination of Orioles losses and Guardians wins that will clinch that the O’s don’t make the playoffs. They have stacked the odds substantially against themselves making it after getting mopped in the four-game Red Sox series this past weekend.
Still,
they are not mathematically eliminated yet, and even if you don’t believe that they’re going to make it, there’s the question of how much of a collapse they might have between now and season’s end. That’s the aim in this week’s poll question, asking how far behind the eventual AL Wild Card 3 team you think that the Orioles will finish. It could still be the Guardians, Blue Jays, Rangers, or even – if they go on a miraculous run – the O’s themselves.
Vote in the poll below:
Notorious pessimist though I am, I did make sure that “they make the playoffs” is still one of the choices, so all of those who just can’t stop believing can register their optimism. Of course, more likely, they won’t make it, and I’m interested in seeing how far you think the team will fall between now and season’s end.
Right now, the Orioles are three games back of the Guardians. They have a chance to take games with their remaining two head-to-head games, and there are also six games coming against the Blue Jays. I don’t think the Orioles will do anything positive with these opportunities, but they are there.
Maybe you think the Orioles will play just well enough to miss out by a game or two. Maybe you think they’ll tread water right around here, not in the race exactly but not mathematically eliminated until the final handful of games. Or maybe you think they’re going to continue the swan dive that their games against the Rockies and Red Sox suggested was on the way.
