Indianapolis, IN — The Indianapolis Colts‘ defense has brought opposing quarterbacks down at a top-10 rate in the NFL. However, nuance is needed to understand the shortcomings.
Indy’s pass rush is filling up the box score statistically, but it still feels like they’re lucking into opportunities at times. Against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 7, the Colts’ defense pressured Shane Steichen’s first quarterback as an offensive coordinator a league-high (and team season-high) 57.4%
of the time, sacking him thrice. Just three other NFL teams were able to total a pressure rate of 50% or higher during Week 7. They are fresh off their single-best performance of the season, so how is there so much room for improvement?
For starters, opportunity. The Colts are T-12th in points allowed (19.4 PPG) this season, but are 25th in offensive plays against. Teams are regularly moving the ball against Lou Anarumo’s Colts defense, though opportunistic play has resulted in keeping them afloat. Not only has such a heads-up mindset prepared them to bend-don’t-break, but it’s turned in the T-3rd best turnover rate (11 takeaways) across the NFL. This Colts defense is almost allowing the offense to get comfortable before appropriately pouncing when the time is right. Also, the Colts’ offense is playing so lights out that they’re scoring early and often, therefore, more opportunities for the defense.
Since the mainstream statistics seem to brush this issue off as if it’ll sort itself out, the more niche ones (such as total plays against) help paint a clearer picture. For example, the Colts’ pass rush is up to the 3rd-highest pressure rate leaguewide (39.4%) and is now 7th in sacks with 19, according to Next Gen Stats. These two stats alone suggest that Indy has nothing to worry about, but a deeper dive hints otherwise.
To further contextualize the disconnect, the Colts are only 19th in sacks per pass attempt. Additionally, opposing quarterbacks have the 7th-most time to throw per attempt (2.86 seconds) while Indy’s pass rush is 20th in get-off rate (0.86 seconds). Long story short, the Colts need more overall pressure. More specifically, they need quicker wins to combat their relatively slow rush attempts, so finishing sacks is less of a sigh of relief and more of an expectation moving forward.
Indy’s pass rush does not need to improve in these areas so long as its defense continues making timely, opportunistic plays on the ball, but it’s risky to merely hope it develops as such. As the saying goes, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, and although this pass rush doesn’t warrant that comparison, soon they might if sustainability isn’t found.
This article is more so to try and contextualize the disconnect among Colts fans and analysts alike who notice the high pass rush numbers, but fail to see that materialize on the field. There are some proven edge rushers leaguewide who’d theoretically fit what the Colts are looking for in a consistent, quick-winning pass rusher — in particular, Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson and Dolphins DE Jaelan Phillips — therefore, a move can be made to remedy the shortcomings. This could very well be a moot point as long as the offense continues to dominate and the defense continues playing its newly established brand of opportunistic football, but it’s worth noting how the league-leading statistics differentiate from the eye test.
