Welcome back reader! If you are reading this, you’ve probably already read the earlier entry breaking down Royals hitter performances in the Arizona Fall League. If you haven’t, go back and read it! We’re back today to do the same for pitchers. Five pitchers from the Royals organization (as of the beginning of AFL play) took the field for the Surprise Saguaros. None of these guys are as flashy a name as Blake Mitchell, but several could contribute to the big league club as soon as next spring.
A few
resources for reference: this link provides context for Statcast metrics (ie. what is league average?), while this link explains sample sizes and how many batters faced are needed for metrics to “stabilize.”
A.J. Causey
Drafted in the fifth round in 2024, Causey didn’t pitch for the rest of the year after playing a key role for the national champion Tennessee Volunteers. His professional debut was a smashing success — in 73.1 innings across 48 appearances between High-A Quad Cities and Double-A Northwest Arkansas, Causey posted a 1.72 ERA. He struck out 26.5% of batters, walked 6.4%, and didn’t allow a home run all season. Having still thrown fewer innings in 2025 than during his draft year at Tennessee, the Royals sent him to Surprise for additional work. While he posted a 7.45 ERA, he led the Saguaros in appearances and struck out 13 batters while walking just one in 9.2 innings.
That 7.45 ERA was likely the result of sequencing and a .400 BABIP against, as Causey’s metrics were very strong. Batters struggled to square him up, hitting the ball hard just 34.5% of the time. While much of the contact he allowed was airborne, batted balls routinely found outfielders’ gloves. Considering Causey’s pitch arsenal and approach (more on that in a moment), his plate discipline metrics were astonishing. When batters swung at pitches in the strike zone, they made contact just 66.7% of the time. That was a better rate than any big leaguer with at least 50 innings pitched this season. He also garnered a healthy 33.7% chase rate. Causey’s whiff rate on chases was 48.6% — not an elite mark, but getting batters to swing at pitches out of the zone is generally a positive outcome, whether or not they make contact.
Causey presents a very unusual look for batters. He sets up on the extreme first base side of the rubber and strides even further towards first, barely getting down the mound before firing from a near sidearm angle. To make things even stranger, his best and most-used pitch is a changeup, which is very atypical for a sidearmer. The pitch sat 78-82 in the fall with huge sink and tail. He also throws a sinker at 89-92, a slurvy breaking ball at 72-77, and a four-seam fastball at 88-90. The four-seamer is a show-me pitch that he used sparingly, and both home runs Causey allowed in the fall came on that pitch (one of which was to Kevin McGonigle, the best prospect in this year’s fall league). Statcast classifies the breaking ball as a curveball, but it often takes the shape of a slider, which is how Eric Longenhagen classified the pitch on his scouting report. Causey attacked lefties with a barrage of changeups while using an even mix of the change, sinker, and breaking ball against right-handed batters. The changeup and breaker both performed like elite pitches, both this fall and during the minor league season.
After carving up the minors this season, Causey could start 2026 in Triple-A Omaha. With two viable secondary pitches, solid command, and the ability to attack hitters on either side of the plate, he seems a safe bet to contribute to a big league bullpen at some point, possibly as soon as next season.
Dennis Colleran
The 2025 season was Colleran’s first pro action after being drafted in the same class as Causey. He was effective on the whole, posting a 2.85 ERA in 66.1 innings. However, he walked far too many batters (12.8%) and saw his strikeout rate tumble after a midseason promotion to High-A. He likely benefited from a .145 opposing BABIP following the promotion. Colleran was similarly effective in the AFL, where he was one of just 13 pitchers to allow one or zero runs in any number of innings. This wasn’t just luck, though. He flat-out dominated, striking out 11 batters and allowing just six baserunners in 7.2 innings.
There is an immediate red flag in Colleran’s AFL hard-hit rate at 53.3%. Those hard-hit balls rarely hurt him, however, as he rolled up a 66.7% groundball rate. This result doesn’t square with his minor league season, in which his grounder rate was just 40.8%, but batters struggled to elevate against him in the desert. He hit the zone with 48.2% of his pitches, which is adequate on its own, but concerning, given Colleran’s particular arsenal. Of course, that may be by design as hitters didn’t miss when he threw strikes, making contact on 87.8% of swings. He also managed a paltry 17.8% chase rate, so it’s a wonder he managed to strike out as many batters as he did.
Colleran’s primary pitch is a sinker that sat 96-99 and touched 100. Like many hard sinkers, it’s not really a swing-and-miss pitch, with just a 5.9% whiff rate. It did its job though, with groundballs on seven of eight balls in play against the pitch. He also mixes a cutter and slider that Statcast often misclassifies — the cutter is tight and sits 91-95 while the slider is more sweepy at 84-88. He’ll also mix in a four-seamer at 94-99. Against right-handed batters, he threw the sinker a third of the time and the cutter and slider about a quarter. Against lefties, he mixes in more cutters and four-seamers in place of the slider.
While this AFL performance was very encouraging, I remain skeptical on Colleran. He lacks a weapon against lefties and, at present, the pitchability isn’t good enough when 75% of the guy’s pitches are fastballs with limited in-zone utility. I’ll wait to see if he can be a groundball guy like this over a bigger sample, which should come in 2026 at either High or Double-A.
L.P. Langevin
Louis-Philippe Langevin began the season on the shelf with an injury, delaying his pro debut until the beginning of July. He spent a couple weeks on the complex before heading to High-A for the rest of the season. It was a mixed bag of a season for Langevin — he struck out 29.8% of opposing batters and didn’t allow a homer, but he also walked 21.2% and posted a 5.91 ERA. Having thrown just 21.2 innings, he was sent down to Surprise for some more work. He allowed just three hits while striking out 11 in 6.2 innings, but he walked 12(!) and allowed a homer on the very last pitch he threw.
The fact that Langevin produced an excellent 33.3% hard-hit rate seems immaterial given his obvious control issues. His 42.4% zone rate would have been one of the lowest among major leaguers this season. He often missed the zone badly, and his control could disappear without warning during outings. Batters only swung 35.5% of the time against Langevin, content to let the pitcher beat himself. When he does control it, his stuff clearly plays, given the hard-hit rate and his strong 34.4% whiff rate.
I knew before he was even drafted that Langevin had an outlier fastball, and he’s really leaned into it, throwing it 82.0% of the time in AFL play. It sat 93-97 and is classified by Statcast as a sinker. It doesn’t really play like a sinker, as it garnered a 35.3% whiff rate, and most contact against it was airborne. His sinker plays like a four-seamer, making it an outlier. His main secondary is a slider at 83-86. He snapped off a few nice ones in the fall, but it was a very inconsistent pitch for Langevin. He also threw two (2) changeups.
The Royals were willing to use a fourth-round draft pick on a one-pitch guy because that pitch was such an anomaly. That’s a great weapon to have, but using just one pitch is not a realistic path to the big leagues. Langevin will need some sort of secondary, whether that’s the slider or something else entirely, to avoid letting batters sit on his fastball. He’ll also need to take major steps forward with his control.
Logan Martin
Martin came to Surprise a Royal and left a Giant, which means I don’t need to try to figure out why he allowed 16 runs on 16 hits in 11 innings. Best of luck to Logan in San Francisco (or more likely Richmond, where I imagine he will begin 2026).
Hunter Owen
The only Royals AFL representative that didn’t make his pro debut this year, Owen spent the entire 2025 season in Double-A. He had a 4.27 ERA with middling peripherals through 13 starts before missing a month with an injury. He returned in late July and was much sharper down the stretch, posting a 3.03 ERA with improved strikeout and walk rates. He departed his second Fall League appearance with an injury and did not pitch again for the remainder of the circuit. I haven’t seen any news about what happened, so hopefully it was nothing serious. Let’s see what we can glean from the 92 pitches he threw.
The first thing that stands out is that Owen gave up loads of contact, and hard contact at that. His overall whiff rate was just 22.2%, and 55.0% of batted balls were hard hit. Combine those with a 35.0% line drive rat,e and it’s no surprise that he surrendered 11 hits and six runs in 4.1 innings. Strike-throwing wasn’t a particular issue for Owen, but living in the zone did him no favors as batters had little trouble squaring up his stuff. His 32.6% chase rate was just about the only positive data point here.
Owen’s primary pitch is a four-seamer that he threw about 40% of the time in AFL play. He pounded the zone with it, but it’s not a particularly explosive pitch at 91-94. He also throws a changeup at 82-86, a curveball at 74-78, and a slider at 86-89. He’ll throw the curveball to batters of either handedness, while using the changeup and slider as his weapons against right-handed and left-handed batters, respectively. The changeup was his best pitch on balance, racking up a 40% whiff rate, but the slider has real potential with its gyro action.
I was quite high on Owen coming out of Vanderbilt and have been rather disappointed with his trajectory to this point. He didn’t have a plus pitch at the time, and that remains the case as his stuff hasn’t meaningfully improved after two years in the system. He’s maxed out physically, so it’s hard to see a path to that at this point. That said, he has real pitchability and enough arsenal depth to start. I would be surprised if he doesn’t start a big league game at some point, but the ceiling feels low.
