The Toronto Raptors, by just about any measure, are enjoying a highly successful season. At 35-26, they’ve surpassed all reasonable expectations for a team that picked up just 30 wins last year. They have two All-Stars, and are well on their way to a playoff appearance.
And yet, Tuesday’s loss to the New York Knicks cemented a concern that’s been on many Raptors fans’ minds: They can’t seem to beat good teams.
The Raptors are currently just 4-16 against the 10 teams ahead of them in the NBA standings.
Three of those four wins came early on against the then-struggling Cleveland Cavaliers who had not yet added James Harden. Four of the losses, meanwhile, have come against the Knicks, each by a margin of 16 or greater.
On the flip side, the Raptors are a dominant 31-10 against the 18 teams beneath them in the league standings. Beating bad/mediocre teams is not a useless exercise: Those results make a big difference when it comes to fighting for playoff seeding.
But as the playoffs draw closer, the Raptors’ woes against top teams are becoming an increasingly worrying indicator that they’ll struggle in the postseason.
Their recent results bear out this trend. Toronto is 3-3 in their last six games: The losses all came against teams in a playoff spot, while each win was against a team outside of the playoff picture.
Tonight, the Raptors will have their work cut out for them as they head to Minnesota to take on the 39-23 Timberwolves, at 8 p.m. EST on Sportsnet.
These two teams last faced each other about a month ago, when the Wolves won 128-126 led by a 30-point performance by Anthony Edwards. The Wolves have been especially hot since the All-Star break, winning seven of their last eight games. Meanwhile, the Raptors could be without their top scorer as Brandon Ingram is questionable with a thumb injury.
Ingram scored 25 and was a +2 in their loss against the Wolves. And following Tuesday’s loss to the Knicks, in which Toronto came within two points with six minutes left only to end up losing by 16, Ingram spoke about the need to overcome their persistent issues executing in the fourth quarter.
“I think every time we play a good team, they know exactly where they want to go in the fourth quarter, and they do it over and over again,” Ingram said.
He added, “The good thing is, we’re in the games. But we got to figure out how to finish the game.”
That fourth quarter execution issue was on full display when the Wolves overcame an 18-point deficit to beat the Raptors in February.
The Raptors may be down their top scorer in their rematch against the Wolves, but they’ll have a new weapon for the rematch: Jakob Poeltl missed that first game and will be active tonight. While sometimes looking diminished as he returns from his back injury, Poeltl has been valuable for the offense as a screener, and his size will be key in matching up against Rudy Gobert. Collin Murray-Boyles remains out.
The Raptors have some things to clean up outside of fourth quarter execution. Their defense looked at times lethargic against the Knicks, and they made a number of mistakes and miscommunications that led to rapid scoring opportunities that may very well have cost them the game.
The Timberwolves have the league’s sixth-rated defense which features Gobert, a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate/winner down low, and Jaden McDaniels, one of the league’s premier perimeter defenders. The Timberwolves have also added guard Ayo Dosunmu since their last matchup.
Scottie Barnes may need to shoulder a larger offensive load if Ingram is out – and he may also draw the assignment of guarding Edwards, one of the league’s most dynamic and athletic scorers.
It won’t be easy for the Raptors. But if they want to change the narrative about facing good teams, they’ll have to win some tough ones.
