After a massive semifinal win in the Carabao Cup On Tuesday, Arsenal turn their sights back to the Premier League when they host Sunderland on Saturday.
The Gunners enter the tie on cloud nine after Tuesday’s confidence-instilling semifinal victory over Chelsea, punching Arsenal’s ticket to their first cup final in 6 years after far too many seasons of near-misses and close calls. A weight was lifted off of the collective shoulders of players and supporters as Kai Havertz’ stoppage time winner hit
the net, and the momentum certainly felt like it shifted for the better in a season that is already shaping up exceptionally well.
But what goes up must come down. There are still a ton of matches left to play and Mikel Arteta will have no doubt reminded his players to keep their feet planted firmly on the ground with another huge opportunity ahead of them to widen the gap at the top of the league table. Recent opportunities to put distance between them and their title rivals have eluded the Gunners’ grasp as the rest of the chasing pack have been a proverbial bucket of crabs.
The qualities of momentum, opportunity, ability, and self-belief have proven tricky to juggle at times for Arsenal. At times, they have capitalized on them in equal parts to propel them into top spots in multiple comps and one final so far, but rarely have they sustained it for lengthy stretches. They have only managed two winning runs lasting over three matches this season. In order to be truly great, wrangling those qualities, harnessing them, and bending them to their will may be key to carry this project to fruition.
Saturday presents a prime chance for the Gunners to put each of those qualities on display. At home, atop the league, at nearly full health, and on the tail of a massive cup win, can they strike while the iron is hot and fortify their lead at the top while their next closest title rivals face tough ties away from home?
Here are three talking points ahead of Saturday’s match:
Know the Enemy
Sunderland enter Saturday’s tie in 8th place with 36 points and a record of 9W/9D/6L.
As far as newly-promoted sides go, the Black Cats have just about been the best in recent history. Their ascension up the table has all but assured that they will be playing Premier League football next season, and they are within a shout of a European spot.
Manager Regis Le Bris has done a brilliant job. Even when AFCON took 6 players out of the side, they stayed apace to remain in the top half. Physical and fearless, Sunderland have asserted themselves at a level not typical for a side that has not played in the PL for nearly a decade. Former Arsenal captain Granit Xhaka has been a revelation, leading the club in assists and injecting steely veteran leadership into the side. Keeper Robin Roefs has been excellent, and their supporting cast may be short on traditional star power, but it has plenty of talented players that have bought into the manager’s ethos and play-style.
The big issue they face is the massive gulf between their home and away form. No club in the PL has put up as disparate forms than Sunderland this season. At the Stadium of Light, they are the 3rd best side in the league 26 points gained and are the only side in the league without a loss at home, boasting a record of 7W/5D/0L. Arsenal have been this season’s best road team, but even they learned that nothing comes for free away to Sunderland when they were pegged back at the death for a 2-2 draw in early November.
Away from home, their form becomes near relegation-level with the 17th worst away record this season. Through 12 matches on the road, they have earned 10 points from a record of 2W/4D/6L and a paltry 6 goals scored. It’s hard to explain exactly how or why their form falls off a cliff, but it has hampered their chances of being in even more rarefied air near the top of the table.
Looking under the hood at the stats, the story is clear – the Black Cats have massively out-kicked their coverage this season. Statistically, they profile as a bottom-half team that should be in a relegation battle, with Opta placing them in 18th place in their data-informed table. But we all know that stats don’t tell the full story and don’t account for the countless soft factors and variables that come with the game.
Unfortunately for the visitors, they will be without a few key figures on Saturday, including Granit Xhaka, who misses out on a return to the Emirates with an ankle injury. Bertrand Traore and Arthur Masuaku also miss the trip with injury.
Regardless of their absences, they are a side that have defied the odds, earned a seat at the table, and have made life difficult for plenty of sides with their work rate and well-drilled tactical identity. If the Gunners are caught riding their high from Tuesday when the Black Cats come to town, they might be in for a shock result.
Injuries & Suspensions
Arsenal made do against Chelsea with a few important players left out, and may have to do so once again. Mikel Merino, unfortunately, will be out for the majority of the season with a stress fracture in his foot. Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka missed Tuesday’s semifinal with maladies that Arteta indicated were not serious. Both were absent from training on Thursday, as well as Jurrien Timber, who is likely (hopefully) an omission due to load management.
OUT: Mikel Merino (foot)
DOUBTFUL: Bukayo Saka (hip), Martin Ødegaard (knock)
Predicted Lineup
Attack: Trossard, Jesus, Madueke
Noni Madueke had another solid match, and though he didn’t have goal contribution, his work rate was solid and he is entering a fine patch of form. His speed on the outside has been a huge weapon, and if he can get his passing and finishing under control, he will be a real menace. Leandro Trossard came on late as a sub against Chelsea and made the pass to set up Declan Rice’s assist to Havertz. He scored a worldie at Sunderland earlier in the season and will look to recreate that threat on Saturday. Gabriel Jesus was left on the bench and likely comes in to give Viktor Gyökeres a break after the Swede put in an energetic 70 minutes against Chelsea.
Midfield: Rice, Nørgaard, Havertz
Declan Rice, what a warrior. His MOTM performance on Tuesday was exceptional as he harried the Chelsea players, dominated the midfield, and set up the match winner. He understandably looked completely gassed by the end. With Mikel Merino unavailable, it’s likely Arteta starts Rice but looks to sub him off early if possible. He is still too important to leave out of the side with such a big opportunity on deck. Martin Zubimendi has been Arteta’s first choice at the 6, but we may see a change at home to add a little physicality in the midfield and rest Zubi before a tough trip to Brentford. Kai Havertz at the 10 adds more physicality than Martin Ødegaard, who may be left out to recover further. The Black Cats are comfortable with a bit of the old argey bargey, so a robust midfield may be the antidote to their physicality.
Defense: Calafiori, Gabriel, Saliba, White
The defense left it all on the pitch on Tuesday. I wouldn’t put it past Arteta to make a few changes to spell tired legs. Riccardo Calafiori and Ben White were unused subs against Chelsea, which may open the door for a start on the outside for both. Jurrien Timber starting is certainly on the table, but he is due a rest before he enters the injury red zone.
Keeper: Raya
Arsenal’s number 1 comes back into the side after a solid, if largely uneventful, clean sheet at Leeds. He’s gotten quite a bit of rest as of late, which is a welcome change considering the dense fixture list this winter.
Arsenal have slowly and methodically clawed their way back up the mountain of the elites, precariously perched to reach the summit this season. They have booked their tickets to their first final, a major marker of their intentions and ability. But there is no room or time to rest on laurels. The job’s far from done, and as gratifying as Tuesday was, the sooner it is put in the rear view mirror, the better. Enjoy it, but grow from it, and let it fuel bigger and brighter aspirations, starting with Saturday.
WHO: Arsenal vs Sunderland
WHAT: Premier League match day 25
WHEN: Saturday, February 7th, 10:00am EST/7:00am PST/3:00pm GMT
WHERE: The Emirates Stadium, London
HOW TO WATCH: Streaming on the Peacock app
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