I’m calling it now: Illinois is making the College Football Playoff.
Illinois is finishing 11-1, with its only loss coming at Ohio State.
The path is there.
Illinois opens with three straight home games against UAB, Duke and Southern Illinois. Most likely, by the time you’re reading this, they’ve already handily defeated UAB. They’re winning the next two before heading to Columbus, where I expect Ohio State to hand them their only loss.
I would love an upset, but realistically, I don’t think it happens
there.
From there, Illinois beats Purdue and Michigan State to reach 5-1.
Then comes the game that changes the season.
The Oregon Ducks come to Champaign on Oct. 24. Oregon will be traveling east after playing Nebraska at home, while Illinois gets a bye the week before. That gives Bret Bielema two weeks to prepare for what could be the biggest home game of his Illinois tenure.
I’m taking the Illini.
Beat Oregon, and Illinois is 6-1 with a victory over a preseason top-two team and its only loss coming on the road against preseason No. 1 Ohio State.
After that: Maryland, Nebraska, UCLA, Iowa and Northwestern.
The toughest games are most likely Nebraska and Iowa, and both come at home.
I have Illinois winning all five.
That puts them at 11-1, and at 11-1, Illinois isn’t sitting around hoping for chaos on Selection Sunday. The Illini would have a legitimate CFP résumé.
The 2026 College Football Playoff features 12 teams. Five conference champions receive automatic bids, while the remaining seven spots are filled with at-large selections. Notre Dame is also guaranteed a berth if it finishes in the committee’s top 12 — which is kind of ridiculous given its lack of a conference schedule and the strong likelihood of it going 11-1 every year, but that’s not the point here.
The selection committee doesn’t simply look at wins and losses, either. Strength of schedule, head-to-head results and results against common opponents are among the criteria used when comparing teams.
That’s where this gets interesting.
In my prediction, Illinois’ only loss comes at Ohio State, a team I expect to win the Big Ten and contend for the national championship.
Its signature win comes against Oregon, another team I expect to make the CFP.
Good luck leaving that résumé out.
There’s even a scenario where Illinois isn’t merely fighting to get in. Under the current format, the four highest-ranked teams receive first-round byes, regardless of whether they won their conference. Teams seeded fifth through eighth host first-round games.
That means 11-1 Illinois could potentially host a College Football Playoff game in Champaign.
That sentence would have sounded ridiculous a few years ago. Maybe you think it sounds ridiculous now.
But that’s the kind of growth this Fighting Illini football program has experienced.
Bret Bielema has already changed the expectations surrounding Illinois football. Winning seasons aren’t enough anymore. Bowl eligibility isn’t the goal. Even nine wins no longer feels impossible.
There’s another step for this program to take.
I think it happens now.
Illinois finishes 11-1. Illinois beats Oregon. And Illinois makes the College Football Playoff.
