The 2025 season did not turn out like anyone hoped or expected. Christmas is just around the corner, and instead of gift-wrapped playoff seeds under the tree, Commanders fans can look forward to big lumps
of coal in their stockings.
For the roughly 2/3 of Hogs Haven readers whose outlook seems to swing up and down from week to week, depending on game outcomes, it may be time to either tune out or wallow in the misery with lamentations of offseason mistakes and calls for the coaching staff and/or head office to be fired, and maybe even for the owner to sell the team.
If that’s you, the Tank Watch is probably not your thing. This series is pitched to the roughly 1/3 of the fanbase who manage to keep an even keel despite the inevitable ups and downs of a franchise rebuild. No doubt this includes a fair share of “rusted on fans” and Commanders’ “tragics” who are in this for the long haul.
Tank aficianados are made of stronger stuff than the run of the mill fair-weather fan. They recognize that you can’t have a rebirth without going through the pains of labor.
Those fans who have what it takes to ride through a few bumps in the road on the way to the promised land were handsomely rewarded with a bounty of Hanukkah presents as the menorah was lit to celebrate the 6th through 8th nights of the Festival of Lights.
While there was nothing that jolly old Saint Nick could do about the lack of a playoff seeding this year, the Football Gods – in whatever form they take – smiled upon the Commanders by granting most of Adam Peters’ wishes to optimize his draft position come April. With their assistance, the Commanders got back on track to potentially finish as high as second in the draft order, after the hiccup in New York, moving them back into range of the upper echelon of draft prospects, and possibly even cracking the door back open on franchise-resetting trade-back offers.
If the Season Ended Today
By failing to overcome the heavily favored Eagles, the Commanders capitalized on the Saints win over the Jets to advance one position in the draft order. Commanders’ fans can thank the resurgent Saints for extending their own winning streak to three. But the truth is, a Jets win would have looked just as good under the tree.
Perhaps more importantly, out of 16 games in Week 15, 10 were decided in a direction that favored Washington’s draft position, either directly, by influencing the W-L margin with key competitors, or indirectly through effects on the Strength of Schedule (SOS) tie breaker. In addition to the Saints-Jets and Commanders-Giants games, these included some key matchups highlighted in last week’s Tank Watch, such as Steelers-Lions, Patriots-Ravens, Bills-Browns, and Chargers-Cowboys, as well as the somewhat unexpected bonus Titans’ win over the Chiefs.
Here is how the draft order currently stands, heading into the long Christmas weekend of football, courtesy of Tankathon:
Thanks to multiple gifts from Santa’s little helpers, the Commanders find themselves picking seventh overall, if the season ended today, and in striking distance of several teams ahead of them in the draft order.
Another key development was that several favorable Week 16 game outcomes dropped the Commanders SOS from 0.508 to 0.500, giving them tiebreak advantages over every team ahead of them in the draft order, aside from the Cleveland Browns, whose margin of advantage also narrowed by 0.007 pts.
With just two games remaining, it now becomes possible to consider meaningful end-of-season scenarios. After Week 16, the ceiling for the Commanders’ draft position is second overall. But moving that high would require a magical sequence of events. More realistically, they are positioned to make a run at a position in the top five.
Following is a breakdown of scenarios for the Commanders to improve their draft position in the final two weeks of regulation, if they can stay off the naughty list, and Santa comes through with more presents from around the league.
To stay on the nice list, the Commanders need to avoid winning any of their final two games. With Marcus Mariota nursing a swollen hand, that shouldn’t pose too big a challenge this week. But the season finale against the Eagles could become a trap if playoff seedings are solidified and Nick Siriani decides to rest his starters. All of these scenarios are predicated on a 4-13 finish. If the Commanders do have any further lapses in the final two games, they can potentially fall back as far as 13th in the draft order.
First Overall – Ruled Out
It is mathematically impossible for the Commanders to overtake both the Giants and Raiders to claim the first overall pick, because the two 2-13 teams play each other this week. The loser of that game will achieve an insurmountable lead over Washington. If the game results in a tie, both teams will become unbeatable by Washington in the race to the top of the draft order.
Second Overall – Pray for Two Miracles and More
It is mathematically possible for a 4-13 Commanders team to pick second overall. It’s just exceedingly unlikely.
For the Commanders to move five spots up the draft order, they require a decisive outcome in the Giants-Raiders game, and the winner of that game to win in Week 18. That’s not entirely out of the question, with the Raiders closing against a Mahomes-less Chiefs’ team that was just blown out by the Titans, and the Giants facing the rudderless division rival Cowboys.
In addition to those outcomes, however, finishing second overall also requires:
- The Browns beating Steelers AND Bengals, or Browns win one and Commanders get help from other teams with the SOS tiebreaker. Based on current SOS, a single win by the Browns will not be enough for the Commanders to overtake them. To pull this off, the Commanders will have to get lucky on two Sundays in a row. Any given Sunday might not be enough.
- Jets beating Patriots OR Bills. Hopes for this one seem to ride on either a food poisoning outbreak in New England next week or the Bills resting starters in the season finale.
- Cardinals beating the Bengals in Week 17 OR Rams in Week 18. The Bengals are almost evenly matched and the Rams could be resting starters in the finale. This is not impossible.
- Titans beating the Saints OR Jaguars. Don’t sleep on the Titans. They have won two of their last three with one remaining against the eminently beatable Saints.
Third Overall – Only One Miracle Required
Getting to third overall is around twice as likely as second overall, because it only requires one Christmas miracle, not two. It’s still a stretch, but it’s almost worth thinking about. Here is what is required:
- Browns win two games, or one with SOS help to Commanders, OR Jets win one.
- End of season scenarios for all of the other teams ahead of Washington in the draft order are the same as in the Second Overall scenario.
Fourth Overall – No Miracles Required, Just a Series of Unlikely Events
Rising up to fourth overall won’t require any actual miracles, just a string of unlikely upsets and maybe a lot of help from other teams. This is pushing the upper envelope of plausibility.
To get to 4, the Commanders need to get past three of the teams currently ahead of them. There are many combinations of events that could get them there. They just need any THREE of the following to happen, listed in approximate order from most to least probable:
- Titans win one game
- Cardinals win one game
- Raiders win two
- Browns win one game and overtake Commanders in SOS
- Giants win two games
- Browns win two games
- Jets win a game
Fifth Overall – Getting Lucky Twice Is Not a Lot to Ask
Getting to fifth overall is just like getting to fourth, except the Commanders only need two of the listed outcomes to occur. The Titans and Cardinals each winning a game will do it. Or substitute the Browns for one of those two teams, along with help from other teams to flip the SOS advantage. This is not even far-fetched. It could happen.
Sixth Overall – Just Takes One Game to Go Our Way
One win by the Titans, Cardinals OR Jets over the next two weeks will be enough to move the Commanders up to sixth overall. They could also advance one spot through any of the more complicated and highly improbable events detailed in the Second Overall scenario. But they don’t need anything crazy to happen. It could happen this weekend.
Week 17 Rooting Guide
Commanders’ fans have enough stress in their lives this time of year, with their team taking a nose-dive, Christmas shopping, holiday travel, and everything else going on in the world. The last thing they need is the extra stress and hassle of figuring out which teams to root for to help the Commanders.
To help readers relax and enjoy the long Christmas weekend of football, I have pulled together this handy guide to all of the Week 17 games with implications for the Commanders’ draft position. Just kick back and root for the teams in bold to win. And watch the draft order take care of itself.
Most Important Games
If they can stay off the naughty list, a win by any of the teams in bold will advance the Commanders one spot in the draft order.
Tennessee Titans (3-12) vs New Orleans Saints (5-10) – The Titans have won two of their last three games. Their defeat of the Chiefs last week moved them into the Commanders’ striking range. QB Cam Ward is still coming up to the speed of the NFL game, but has thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in each game since Week 10. The Saints have been on a roll since taking down the Bucs in Week 14, thanks to the emergence of QB Tyler Shough. But how long can their winning streak last. Like the hopes and dreams of an aspiring country singer, it ends in Nashville. Titan Up!
Arizona Cardinals (3-12) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-10) – The Cardinals haven’t won a game since defeating the Cowboys in Week 9. But the Bengals aren’t exactly the class of their division, either. This game pits the Bengals’ 24th ranked offense (-0.005 EPA/play) against the Cardinals’ 24th ranked defense (+0.062 EPA/play). Going the other way, it’s a matchup of the Cardinal’s 26th ranked offensive juggernaut (-0.013 EPA/play) against a Bengals defense (rank 30, +0.144 EPA/play) which is only better than Washington and Dallas. Someone’s got to win this game. Let’s hope it’s the Cardinals. Rise Up, Red Sea!
New York Jets (3-12) vs New England Patriots (12-3) – The Jets are not technically what you call a “good team”. But a lot of analysts think the Patriots are overrated due to playing far and away the weakest schedule in the league. Only two of the Patriots’ 12 wins this season have been against teams that currently have a winning record, and one of those was the 8-7 Carolina Panthers. Not buying it? Me neither. Pray for a Christmas miracle! J-E-T-S, Jets! Jets! Jets!
Washington Commanders (4-11) vs Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) – This is about staying off the naughty list. All of the scenarios for Washington to move up in the draft order are predicated on them not winning any more games. If they start doing that, they go the other direction. Even so, I can’t actually endorse losing to Dallas. How important is draft position to you?
Very Important Game
A favourable outcome to this game doesn’t necessarily advance the Commanders this week, without a lot of outside help. But it is an essential element of a scenario for the Commanders to overtake a team ahead of them if all goes well next week.
Cleveland Browns (3-12) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) – after last weekend’s games, the Browns’ SOS advantage over the Commanders has shrunk to just 0.008. It is possible for the Commanders to move past them if they win one more game and they get help on the SOS front from other teams. To be safely ahead, the Commanders need the Browns to win both of their remaining games. Cheer for Myles Garrett to smash the single season sack record and Shedeur Sanders to prove his doubters wrong. Here we go, Brownies, here we go! Woof! Woof!
Rest of Week 17
Outcomes of these games can influence the Commanders’ draft position by helping to win tiebreaks with teams currently ahead of them, or by mitigating the damage if Washington wins another game or two. The main likely tiebreak scenario for the Commanders to move up is with the Browns. Due to developments in Week 16, tiebreaks that could be important to contain the damage from more Washington wins include Saints and Bengals, if Commanders win one game, or Dolphins, Falcons and Chiefs, if they win two. Other draft position rivals are so far behind Washington in SOS that tiebreaks are not likely to matter.
Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) vs Buffalo Bills (11-4) – A Bills win has the greatest potential to help the Commanders win SOS tiebreaks of any game in Week 17. The Eagles are a divisional opponent, so a loss counts double toward lowering Washington’s SOS. Furthermore, a Bills win helps by raising rivals’ SOS in potential tiebreaks with the Browns, Saints, Bengals, Dolphins and Falcons. Cheering for an Eagles’ loss should come naturally. Shout! Let’s Go Buffalo!
LA Chargers (11-4) vs Houston Texans (10-5) – the most important factor here is that the Chargers are a Washington opponent. A Chargers’ loss lowers the Commanders SOS to help in potential tiebreaks with the Browns, Saints, Bengals, and Falcon. Bolt Up!
San Francisco 49ers (11-4) vs Chicago Bears (11-4) – The Bears are a Washington opponent, so a loss has widespread benefits in potential tiebreak scenarios. A 49ers win has added benefit in a tiebreak with the Falcons to mitigate damage in the unlikely event that the Commanders win two more games. Common opponents cancel out benefits in some of the more crucial tiebreak scenarios, including Browns and Saints. Nevertheless, a 49ers’ win is more likely to benefit the Commanders in tiebreaks with the Bengals, Falcons and Chiefs. Bang! Bang! Niner Gang!
Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) vs Baltimore Ravens (7-8) – The Packers are a Washington opponent and the Ravens play potential tiebreak adversaries Miami and Kansas City. A Ravens’ win therefore gives Washington a double boost if they find themselves in tiebreaks with either of those teams. The Ravens also play the Browns and Bengals one more time than the Packers, so a Ravens win gives Washington a 1.5x boost in any tiebreaks with those teams as well. Embrace the purple!
Atlanta Falcons (6-9) vs LA Rams (11-4) – The Falcons are a Washington opponent, so a loss helps in potential tie break scenarios with the Browns, Bengals and Chiefs. Any gain in a tiebreak with Miami is cancelled out by the fact that the Falcons played them. Cheer for a win for old friend Sean McVay. Whose house? RAMS’ HOUSE!
Indianapolis Colts (8-7) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) – This one’s simple. A Jaguars’ win could help in a tiebreak with the Bengals if Washington wins another game. A Colts win could help in tiebreaks with the Falcons and Dolphins, which only becomes important if Washington wins two more games. A Jaguar’s win is much more likely to be of benefit. DUUUVAL!
Minnesota Vikings (7-8) vs Detroit Lions (8-7) – This one’s almost as simple as the last one. Both teams played Washington, so the outcome does not affect the Commanders’ SOS. A Vikings win helps in a tiebreak with the Falcons, if the Commanders win one more game. A Lions win helps in a tiebreak if the Commanders win two more games. A Vikings win is more likely to be of benefit. Skol!
Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) vs Denver Broncos (12-3) – both teams played Washington, so a win by either has the same effect on our SOS. The decisive factor here is SOS of Washington’s rivals. The Broncos played the Bengals who could become a problem if Washington wins another game. IN-COM-PLETE!
Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) vs Baltimore Ravens (7-8) – The Packers are a Washington opponent and the Ravens play potential tiebreak adversaries Miami and Kansas City. A Ravens’ win therefore gives Washington a double boost if they find themselves in tiebreaks with either of those teams. The Ravens also play the Browns and Bengals one more time than the Packers, so a Ravens win gives Washington a 1.5x boost in any tiebreaks with those teams as well.
Carolina Panthers (8-7) vs Seattle Seahawks (12-3) – Seahawks are a Commanders’ opponent, so a loss helps Washington in tiebreaks with the Browns, Bengals, Dolphins, Falcons and Chiefs. The Panthers played the Dolphins and played the Saints and Falcons once more than the Seahawks did, to give the Commanders additional boost in those tiebreaks with a win. Keep pounding, cats!
Miami Dolphins (6-9) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) – This one is close to a wash. While the Dolphins are Commanders’ opponents, SOS benefits from a Dolphins win are offset by the fact that Miami played all of the likely tiebreak adversaries. The deciding factor is that a Miami win would help to mitigate the damage in the extremely unlikely event that Washington wins two more games. Cheer for the Dolphins just to be safe. Phins Up!
