By now you’ve likely seen our first three parts (Part I, Part II, Part III) covering the NBA’s attempt to curb tanking. In this, our fourth and final part, we’ll take a look at the last of the proposed changes being brought before the Board of Governors.
For ease of reference, here are the basics of the current rules that we’ve included in each of the prior parts. As it stands, the 14 teams that do not make the Playoffs are eligible for the lottery. Don’t confuse making the Play In Tournament with
making the Playoffs – they are not the same. 16 teams make the Playoffs when all is said and done, with 14 heading to the lottery. Lottery odds are flat (14%) for the three worst teams, with the odds decreasing from there down to the 14th worst team (0.5%). The team with the worst record can receive no worse than the 5th pick, as the lottery only determines picks 1-4 with the rest of the draft order following inversely of a team’s record.
Option 3 – Five-by-five, dual-lottery
Key aspects of the proposal include:
- 18 teams in the draft lottery (10 that miss the Playoffs outright plus 8 that make the Play In Tournament).
- Each of the 5 worst teams have the same lottery odds, with other teams having worsening odds inversely with their record.
- The first 5 picks would be determined by a lottery drawing.
- After the first 5 picks are determined, the remaining 13 picks would be determined via yet another lottery drawing.
- If any of the worst 5 teams fall outside the top 5 picks, they can fall no lower than the 10th overall pick.
Thoughts on the proposal
This proposal is probably the best indication that the NBA has a lot of lawyers running things. It seems this proposal is the most likely of the three to confuse fans. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea, but it doesn’t mean it’s a good one either. It matches the first proposal in terms of the number of lottery teams, but pairs it with a level of complexity that echoes the second proposal in terms of variables. A dual lottery is intriguing, but flat odds for the five worst teams doesn’t move the dial all the much from where things currently stand (flat odds for the three worst teams). It also may result in plenty of teams still looking to tank, just maybe slightly less so. The second lottery for picks 6-18 is where things get even more interesting. Is the prospect of being in a second lottery enough to incentivize teams to make the Play In Tournament? A Play In team with a good chance to jump to the number 6 pick is certainly enticing.
What it could mean for the Mavericks
Dependent upon when the changes take place, this could potentially benefit the Mavericks. If a reasonable expectation is for them to be a Play In team that quickly becomes a lock for a top-six Playoff team, it could put the Mavericks in position to move up in the draft just as they are breaking through the Play In Tournament phase of their growth. As with all of these scenarios, there are a ton of variables and timing concerns that would greatly change things for Dallas. With the number of picks swaps going against them in the coming years and how little control they have of their picks in general until 2031, their best outcome would be getting good quickly and hoping these changes are not imminent. The latter seems unlikely, so it’s possible Dallas could get some good draft luck that serves only to benefit another team.
I invite you to follow me @_80MPH on X, and check back often at Mavs Moneyball for all the latest on the Dallas Mavericks.
