Series Preview/Know Your Foe: Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

The long home-stand complete, Houston starts a 9-game road trip with a three game set in Arlington.

Rangers Standings:

72-69 (3rd in the AL West) 5.0 Games Back, 1.5 Games Back of the Last AL Wild Card
Home Record: 42-27 (Astros Road Record: 34-32)
Record vs. AL West: 23-23 (Astros vs AL West: 18-19)
Last 10: 7-3 [WLWWWWWWLL] (HOU: 5-5 [LWWWLLWLWL])
2025 Record vs. Houston: 4-3 (Split 2-2 (5/15-18); Won 2-1 @ HOU (7/11-13))

Record since last meeting with Houston: 24-20 (Houston: 21-24)
All-Time Record vs. Houston: 148-145
Playoff Record: 4-3 (2023 ALCS)

Rangers Season since last meeting: When these teams last met, the Rangers were hanging just under .500, hoping for a big second half run. They did manage to get over .500 after the All-Star Break, but then fell back under .500, seeing their division and playoff hopes sinking, going 7-14 during a late July to mid-Aug stretch. Yet, they’ve been a bit of a upswing, going 10-2 before a two-game

losing streak to end the Diamondbacks series, getting back over .500 and within legitimate striking distance of playoff consideration. The strength of the team is still its pitching and defense, but the offense has shown some signs of improvement after its horrid start. However, much of their recent success came against struggling teams. Their upcoming schedule, starting with this set against the Astros, will see them play against several playoff-caliber teams. If the Rangers want to get back to the postseason, they need to continue their upswing against Houston at home.

Rangers Leaders

Offense: [NOTE: Stat leaders based eligibility for batting title and who is currently on the roster, unless otherwise noted]

HR: SS Corey Seager (21)
RBI: RF Adolis Garcia (73)
BA: SS Corey Seager (.271)
OPS: SS Corey Seager (.860)

Pitching: [NOTE: Stat leaders based on eligibility for ERA title and who is currently on the roster, unless otherwise noted]

ERA: Jacob DeGrom (2.69) [For those not eligible for the ERA title, Reliever Chris Martin posts a 2.27 ERA over 41 appearances]
Wins: Jacob DeGrom (11)
Saves: Robert Garcia (9)
WHIP: Jacob DeGrom (.92) [For those not eligible for the ERA title, Reliever Shawn Armstrong posts a .84 WHIP over 59 appearances]

Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

Friday, September 5 @ 7:05 p.m. CDT: TBD vs Merrill Kelly (11-7, 3.24 ERA)
Saturday, September 6 @ 6:15 p.m. CDT: Hunter Brown (10-7, 2.34 ERA) vs. Jacob DeGrom (11-6, 2.69 ERA)
Sunday, September 7 @ 1:35 p.m. CDT: Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (7-9. 4.48 ERA)

Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE) (BA/OBP/SLG)

C: Jonah Heim (.218/.271/.341)
1B: Rowdy Tellez (.221/.269/.430)
2B: Cody Freeman (.213/.240/.383)
3B: Josh Jung (.256/.300/.398)
SS: Josh Smith (.256/.335/.374)
LF: Wyatt Langford (.248/.339/.439)
CF: Michael Helman (.250/.333/.550)
RF: Adolis Garcia (.235/.277/.408) [Subject to change due to recent injury]
DH: Joc Pederson (.178/.280/.343)

Rangers Offense: If you still want to call the Rangers’ offense underachieving, especially based on the potential talent, you’d have justification. They still rate in the lower quarter of MLB hitting stats (25th in BA, 26th in OBP and 24th in SLG). However, they are actually now 18th in runs scored, so there are signs of improvement since the All-Star Break, even if the trades Arlington made centered on pitching. The primary driver is SS Corey Seager, who was the top offensive weapon for the Rangers before he went on IL due to an appendectomy, with his return uncertain. One-time prime trade candidate Adolis Garcia leads the Rangers in RBIs as he tried to recapture that form that made him a threat in the later part of the 2023 season, but he was sidelined in the last series against Arizona. There have been other signs of life from bats that started the year dormant. However, a significant number of injuries, especially for key field players, is forcing Bochy to mix and match his lineups as much for availability as for talent, with varying results of success. As for baserunning/stealing, the Rangers rank 6th, so they are a threat to advance runners once on base, but they still need their bats to take the lead in these actions.

Rangers Pitching/Defense: It is still all about that pitching and defense. They still lead MLB with the fewest runs allowed and they dominate in most of the key pitching categories (1st in Team ERA and WHIP, 2nd in BAA). Jason DeGrom, while he has shown a little more mortality on the mound since he last faced Houston, is the reigning staff ace. Yet, Houston will dodge perhaps the Rangers’ most dangerous pitcher. Nathan Eovaldi, who was authoring one of his better seasons as of late, is likely done for the season due to shoulder problems. He has particularly tormented Houston, so that is one small advantage for the Astros. Yet, the Rangers still boast some decent arms behind DeGrom. Former Diamonback Merrill Kelly is pitching well since coming over at the trade deadline, and even Patrick Corbin is showing some signs of life as a starter. The bullpen offers some quality, continuing the trend of strong overall Rangers pitching. This includes trade deadline pickup and former Astros Phil Maton (previously of the Cardinals). They rank 7th in ERA, which is quite the change from seasons past. Robert Garcia is the team leader in saves, but in the past 15 games, Shawn Armstrong is actually logging the most saves (3). The team’s defense is leading the league in runs saved and they’ve committed the fewest errors in the league.

Most Dangerous Player: P Jacob DeGrom. In his two games against Houston this season, he’s only surrendered 2 earned runs in 14 innings, going along with 15Ks. However, since that Houston start, he’s only gone 2-4 in his starts. However, he is back at home, where he is much stronger pitcher. Even if he matches up against Brown, likely DeGrom will make life difficult for the inconsistent Astros lineup. Maybe a hot Yordan can help, but as the Yankees showed, you can work around Alvarez, especially with the rest of the Astros’ lineup hitting the way they did during the recent homestand.

Injuries: Um, yeah, the Rangers have quite a few players on IL:

P Tyler Mahle (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: Early September
P Cole Winn (arm); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: September
OF Adolis Garcia (quad); Day-to-Day; Projected Return: TBD
SS Corey Seager (appendectomy); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026 (outside chance for playoff return, but TBD)
CF Evan Carter (wrist); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Nathan Eovaldi (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
2B Marcus Semien (foot); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026
P Jon Gray (should); 15-Day IL; Projected Return: TBD
IF/OF Sam Haggerty (ankle); 10-Day IL; Projected Return: Early September
P Josh Sborz (shoulder); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: TBD
P Cody Bradford (elbow); 60-Day IL; Projected Return: 2026

Intangibles: In one respect, that the Rangers are a mere 3 games over .500 can’t sit all that well for an organization that made a lot of trade deadline deals and carries one of the larger payrolls in the game. Yet, given the overall meh quality of the AL, in particular the AL West, the Rangers enter September with a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. They won the 2023 World Series as a 5-seed, and managed an 11-0 road playoff record, even as their regular season saw them with a losing road record. Perhaps Bochy gets the chance to do his every-other-year championship thing. Still, that the Rangers enter the stretch run even after all of their uneven play bodes well for the clubhouse. Granted, they have some major injuries (Seager, Eovaldi, Semien, Carter) that could hinder that run, but they are in the hunt.

Series Outlook: The Rangers enter this series with more than aspirations of winning the Silver Boot on their minds. A Rangers sweep would dramatically alter the balance of power in the AL West. Sure, the Rangers would be far more dangerous with a healthy Eovaldi and Seager, but Seager may yet return, and DeGrom is about as good an ace to have on the staff as any. They have six games remaining against Houston, so they have to view this as a major opportunity. As for the Astros, Alvarez is starting to get comfortable in the lineup, which an inconsistent offense desperately needs. However, the injury demons have not had their fill of Astros players, as Arrighetti is now on the IL with the dreaded “elbow discomfort”. For a team barely hanging on, this is the last thing the Astros need, and this after a blah 5-5 homestand. Along with the Rangers surging, the Mariners are about to enter a soft part of their schedule, where, in theory, they could pick up some easy wins. Houston didn’t exactly cash in in their recent “soft schedule” chances. The AL West is getting very, very interesting as September rolls along. Houston has played well at Globe Life, but nothing about the 2025 Astros says that anything can or will be easy to call.

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