Less than a week remains until the NFL Draft. At this rate, the 2026 season will be here before we realize it.
Earlier this month, Ryan and I at Read & React asked for all of your Steelers questions to do a mailbag edition of the column. You guys responded with so many that we had to bump it to a two-parter. Thanks for all your support of this series and detailed questions — we appreciate it all!
Let’s not bump the word count any more, and dive right in:
Final Countdown to the Draft
From Dooogs: “Does the Pittsburgh location of
the draft change / influence any of the Steelers’ decisions, or do we get the same draft outcomes as if it had been held in California or Florida?” RB: I highly, highly doubt it. But I can see how you can get there — there are almost certainly owners who care more about optics and the bottom line than X’s and O’s. And the Packers finally using a first-round pick to draft a wide receiver in front of a Green Bay crowd last year felt pretty fanservice-y for the NFL (although I think they just knew they’d need a receiver for 2026 — which they did).
Maybe there’s some added pressure to not trade out of the first round while the draft is in Pittsburgh, but I don’t see any serious NFL front office caring so much about the moment that they neglect what they think is best for the team.
The Steelers aren’t immune to sentiment. They famously draft a lot of brothers and players with Pittsburgh connections. Former general manager Kevin Colbert might’ve reached for Kenny Pickett in his final draft to try to give the team a franchise passer on his way out.
But if anything, the team’s braintrust has been advertising that it’s not interested in a first-round quarterback this year. And that’s the one position where catering to the home crowd would make the most sense. The Steelers will still probably draft a player or two with local ties, but they’d do that anyway.
RP: I lean towards this idea being more of a fan anxiety than anything based in reality. I don’t doubt that the Steelers want to show out for the city, but I have to believe that the front office trusts that their scouting and draft preparation will present the organization with its best path forward, regardless of the event’s location.
If there were one decision I could see being mildly influenced by the Steelers role as host team, it’s what Ryland suggested about any potential trade back that takes the team out of the first round. But if some team was foolish enough to offer a 2027 first-round pick to do so, I also think the Steelers would seriously consider it, even if it means making the home crowd wait another night for a pick.
On the other hand, if the Steelers trade up like some believe they might, that will be based on their evaluation of the player they are trading up for, more than the short-term dopamine hit from hearing the crowd go crazy at the announcement.
And since Ryland brought it up… No, I don’t believe they will be drafting a QB in round one.
From TorchM: “What could a trade into 2027 pick(s) potentially look like? Which teams might be willing partners? I’d think the realistic target would be teams who were decent last year and want to contend this year, but have a chance at regressing to get us a better pick.”
RP: I’ll start this by saying I don’t think this scenario is very likely. The NFL rumor mill for months has made it sound like teams are willing to move around in this draft, but very few are looking to offer up 2027 picks to do so.
While it’s true that nearly every year, there is some version of “Wait until next year’s draft!” discourse, the 2027 class has been highlighted for front offices for a long time. Next year was always the most likely year for Arch Manning to declare. Teams have been salivating over Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith since he was a freshman. And then there’s the potential of players like South Carolina edge Dylan Stewart, Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore, and a handful of other intriguing quarterback prospects like Dante Moore, LaNorris Sellers, Darian Mensah, and Julian Sayin that have teams holding tight to their picks.
Any scenario where Pittsburgh could pull this off would likely involve a contender, as you mentioned. A team such as the Jets has multiple first-round picks next year, but is unlikely to move them now when they could use them as firepower to position themselves for a quarterback next draft cycle. Then there’s also the value issue. Whether you use models like the Rich Hill model, or Jimmy Johnson’s model, there are not many scenarios where a trade makes sense. Either the offer is so lopsided in the Steelers’ favor that it would only be accepted in a game of Madden, or the Steelers would have to sacrifice greatly early in this year’s draft to make it happen.
Let’s use the Johnson model to demonstrate. Johnson’s model doesn’t change as much year-to-year as Hill’s, which keeps the math easier.
The Steelers’ pick at 21 is valued at 800 points. Each pick after it for the rest of the first round is reduced in value by 20 points sequentially, with the Seahawks’ 32nd pick coming in at a value of 590 points. Using that pick as an example, if the Seahawks repeated as champions next season, sending the Steelers their first round pick for 2027 and their pick this year would be a value of 1180 points, giving the Steelers a surplus value of 380 in their favor. If Seattle’s offer was simply this year’s first and next year’s first to move up. That difference in value is roughly the equivalent of the Steelers 2026 second-round pick (370).
So here would be the theoretically more realistic package:
- PIT gets SEA’s 2026 1.32 and 2027 1st — 1180 pts
- SEA gets PIT’s 2026 1.21 & 2026 2.53 — 1170 pts
That’s the best I could come up with, and the math changes drastically if Seattle doesn’t feel like they’re poised to repeat. And would there be an impactful enough player available that they feel is worth gambling their 2027 pick for? Does the “win now” front office in Pittsburgh feel comfortable downgrading their top pick and sacrificing a second-round pick, and/or potentially more, to make a trade work?
I lean towards no, but nothing is impossible. Other teams that could be feeling the pressure to get over the hump now include Buffalo, Denver, and Houston. Teams will occasionally agree to lopsided trades — look at the Luka Dončić trade from the NBA — but I wouldn’t bet the house on it in this case.
RB: Ryan did a good job answering this one, so I won’t add too much more. Trading for a 2027 first- or second-round pick would likely require another team that’s dead set on trading up in what most see as a weaker class this year. It’s not impossible, but it’s probably not likely.
Trading for a later 2027 draft pick wouldn’t be as dramatic, but there is a greater chance of that happening. As a general rule with trade value, future picks are valued less than current ones, opening up opportunities to “trade up” in next year’s class, which is expected, at least, to be a bit stronger.
If the Steelers maneuver around on Day 2 this year, which I see as a possible outcome given Omar Khan’s past interest in good deals and the team’s overall wealth of picks, Pittsburgh might be able to add some 2027 draft capital. In my last BTSC mock, I had the Steelers packaging two 2026 third-rounders for a 2026 second and 2027 sixth. It’s nothing flashy, but a minor draft standing investment in what will hopefully be a better Day 3 next year.
More picks in 2027, even if they’re too low to meaningfully add to a trade-up package for a quarterback, still help the team make up for any picks lost in that trade-up. But as with all trades, it takes two to tango. I wouldn’t bet on it happening.
From LongJourneyAhead: “Likelihood of us taking WR in 1st and IOL in 2nd?”
RB: If we use the Steelers’ top-30 visits as a guide, which have been an extremely accurate predictor of the team’s early picks under Omar Khan, wide receiver seems likely, but not the most likely first-round option. The only pass catchers the team have met with who could go in that range are USC’s Makai Lemon, who probably won’t be there at No. 21, and Washington’s Denzel Boston.
At the moment, I’m leaning towards a defensive back or offensive lineman in the first, with an investment or two at wide receiver on Day 2.
But as important as precedent is to keep an eye on, teams tend to break their habits eventually. Even though the Steelers never brought in Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. or Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson for pre-draft visits, they met with both at the combine. And keep in mind the team can still get plenty of information on both — Frank Cignetti Jr., the brother of Hoosier head coach Curt Cignetti, is on the Steelers’ staff, as is new wide receivers coach Adam Henry, who was credited with helping recruit Cooper Jr. to Indiana. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh legend and former Steeler wide receiver Hines Ward was Tyson’s positional coach at ASU the past two years.
Omar Khan has only led the Steelers through three drafts so far. His top-30 visit streak is important, but it’s not the end-all, be-all, especially as he can certainly learn about prospects through other means.
But as for the guard part of your question, I’d definitely be surprised if the Steelers don’t address it early on in the draft, given the front office’s known trenches-first mindset. Plus, as the team presumably transitions from a 40-plus-year-old quarterback to a rookie in the next few seasons, it makes sense to build up a strong line to help both.
Keep in mind, though, that teams routinely find starting-level guards in the middle rounds. Mason McCormick was a fourth-rounder, after all. Pittsburgh could still absolutely find a name they trust to start after Round 2.
RP: I personally lean towards wanting Pittsburgh to take a guard or a defensive back in the first round, and then select a receiver like Alabama’s Germie Bernard in the second round. Fortunately, the four position groups where I think the Steelers should add — receiver, interior offensive line, defensive back, and linebacker — are all fairly deep in this class. They should come away with some key contributors, regardless of the order they select them in.
Questioning the offensive line?
From Steeler Tide: “I’m just concerned about our O-line offensively. I know it sounds simplistic, but I don’t care if the Steelers bring in Barry Sanders and Jerry Rice reincarnate. I don’t think they can achieve what they need to offensively until we get the line fixed. We really haven’t had what would be considered a top-notch coach at the position since Munch. What are your overall impressions about the direction that unit is moving so far?”
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From WhiteRoseSteel66: “With the current possibility of an ‘old man’ starting at QB, what do you predict our starting OL to look like? Do you think the Steelers will focus on the OL in the draft?”
RP: These two questions weren’t exactly asking the same thing, but they felt close enough in spirit to pair together. I’ll let Ryland speak in more detail on the second question and simply say I expect the Steelers to take at least one guard and one tackle among their 12 possible selections.
As for Steeler Tide’s question, I share some of the same gripes about how the offensive line has been handled in the years after Mike Munchak departed the team, but I do feel more positively about the line now than I did three years ago. While I do think Broderick Jones will ultimately be considered a failed pick, barring a huge development leap this upcoming season, general manager Omar Khan and assistant general manager Andy Weidel’s attempts to replenish the line have had more positive results than negative, in my evaluation.
Zach Frazier is already among the league’s best centers and appears to be a franchise cornerstone for the years ahead. Likewise, tackle Troy Fautanu’s redshirt season last year was encouraging. He looks like he can be a steady player at minimum. If he can continue to develop and stay healthy, I’m optimistic about his chances of being a second-contract Steeler. Mason McCormick also took a positive step forward in development last year, and while I don’t know if he’ll ever contend to be an All-Pro, he’s a tone setter with a nasty demeanor in the run game and the type of glue guy you like to have in your huddle.
In previous years, I’ve been among those who were urging Mike Tomlin to move on from Pat Meyer. Now with them both gone, we’ll truly see if the grass is greener on the other side after all.
Mike McCarthy has brought in James Campen to coach the line. Campen joined the Packers two years before McCarthy and was with him for his entire run. During that time, the Packers won a Super Bowl and had five All-Pro selections and 10 different Pro Bowl selections on their line. The development of former fourth-round pick David Bakhtiari into a multi-time All-Pro selection is the feather in Campen’s hat during his time in Green Bay.
After departing Green Bay, Campen had some spectacularly bad luck, with a streak of job offers from head coaches that would get the axe within a year or less. It started with the Browns and Freddie Kitchens in 2019. Then, Anthony Lynn and the Chargers in 2020. David Culley was the next poor SOB, with Houston in 2021. Matt Rhule and the Panthers continued the streak in 2022 when Rhule was fired in October, but Campen was kept on in Frank Reich’s staff for 2023. Reich was then fired in November that year. Campen has been out of the NFL since.
That may seem like a bad omen — hell, I wouldn’t blame those coaches if they believe Campen to be the reaper with a resume like that — but I don’t really think the offensive lines were the undoing of any of those teams. Campen’s development of Ikem Ekwonu in Carolina is noteworthy, for example, and he oversaw the early days of Cade Mays, who just got paid by Detroit this free agency cycle.
For now, I’m going to take an optimistic view, especially if the Steelers add some line talent in the draft.
RB: As for the second question, I’ll echo what I said earlier about the team’s past line-heavy focus making it safe to predict they’ll draft a starting-level guard fairly early in the draft. While left guard might not be the team’s most pressing long-term need, it’s arguably the starting lineup’s only real hole right now, assuming Aaron Rodgers returns. Pittsburgh will definitely address it with one of its five top-100 selections.
Copy and paste that linemen emphasis in the front office’s usual strategy when it comes to offensive tackle. You can never have enough offensive line depth in the NFL, and Pittsburgh has hosted two (three if you count Spencer Fano) for top-30 visits. And both Markell Bell and Travis Burke are mid-round options, not likely late picks.
Keep in mind that if the Steelers don’t pick up Broderick Jones’ fifth-year option, both he and Dylan Cook will hit free agency in 2027.
Again, with 12 picks to burn this draft. I definitely see the Steelers using one to invest in what’s arguably the most important position outside of quarterback. I’d expect an offensive tackle to be drafted somewhere on Day 3, or even earlier.
From NH Steelers: “The past few seasons, the Steelers have struggled with consistently running the ball. Last season, they somewhat got it working, but seemingly only when they used their jumbo package of Washington and Anderson. For the upcoming season, what can the Steelers do to get the run game going? Is it as “simple” as getting the passing game going (which should push the safeties back)? Is a change to our running concepts and/or blocking schemes needed? Do we need a hammering FB leading the way? Do we need new blockers/runners, or is it a combination of things?”
RB: It’s definitely a combination of things, and it’s even more difficult to predict as there has been a lot of change to the Steelers’ offense this year. There’s a nearly entirely new coaching staff, where head coach Mike McCarthy, offensive coordinator Brian Angelichio, offensive line coach James Campen, and running backs coach Ramon Chingyoung Sr., just to name a few, will make their imprint on the ground game.
A few things will definitely change from Arthur Smith’s time as offensive coordinator. There will almost certainly be a more even split between gap and zone runs; beyond varying the Steelers’ scheme, I’ve long thought gap runs better fit Mason McCormick’s skill set in the run game, and also Broderick Jones, who’s struggled the most with zone execution in the past.
New running back Rico Dowdle is a stronger between-the-tackles runner than Kenneth Gainwell was last year, and we’ll also be free of the plays that used Jonnu Smith as a key blocker (hopefully the team adds another blocking tight end). But McCarthy’s offense will also not be as tight-end-heavy as Smith’s was.
Those scheme and personnel updates should help the Steelers’ running game improve this year. But I’m not sure how high the ceiling is. As you mention, a better passing game keeps defenses honest, but if Aaron Rodgers returns, we’ll be seeing more of his preferences than any McCarthy/Angelichio innovations. (To be fair, the Rodgers offense meshes better with McCarthy’s 11 personnel than Smith’s 13 personnel — but still don’t expect many deep shots.)
Also, while I’m bullish on the Steelers’ offensive line long term, the left side is still quite the question mark with Broderick Jones’ unclear status and inconsistent play, as well as the aforementioned hole at left guard.
Maybe it’s just preseason optimism, but I do think the Steelers are starting to put the pieces together for an improved run game. But I don’t know if they’ll get there this year.
To more directly answer the question, I think the team has the personnel to succeed in the run game already — the development of those players so they can gel and execute the scheme is the biggest thing that held them back last year. We’ll see how the new coaching staff rises to the challenge, but a better passing game and a scheme that meshes better to player strengths will make their job easier.
RP: It’s a bit of a cop out from me, but the end of your question contains the answer: it’s a combination of factors.
We’ll start with the upcoming season. The Steelers will certainly have changes to their scheme. Former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has always favored heavier personnel, emphasizing the use of tight ends and de-emphasizing the use of three-receiver sets. McCarthy is no stranger to those personnel groupings, but is far more likely to use 11-personnel sets than Smith. And while McCarthy still uses a fair amount of zone, his offenses have historically favored a 60-40 split of gap/power concepts and zone. That might be an improvement, to be honest, as the Steelers have been inconsistent with their execution in sealing the outside edges on wide zone runs, and they haven’t had high-level speed at running back in some time.
The Steelers also lost Jonnu Smith and Connor Heyward at tight end this offseason, which might be addition by subtraction. Smith has always been a black hole as a blocker. Heyward, I’ll admit, grew into an adequate blocker in 2025, but struggled to find his assignments and provide quality blocking in all his seasons prior. The Steelers have been studying the tight end class and will likely look to add another blocking-oriented tight end in the draft to pair with Darnell Washington. Pat Freiermuth will likely get more reps this year, and while he was a better blocker than Smith, it’s really not his bag either, so adding to the room via the draft and this summer could be important.
The Steelers will have a new starting guard one way or another, and I’d encourage them to draft a tackle as well. I’m going to keep an open mind with Jones; maybe a new staff and scheme will do him well, but I’m pretty ready to move on after this season if we don’t see big improvements.
Too many times on tape does Jones get to an assignment a touch too late, or look like he doesn’t understand how to leverage a double team, whether he’s bailing too early or failing to find a way to make a positive impact after he climbs. His power and leg drive are also inconsistent as a run blocker. As a pass protector, missteps and poor footwork often lead to him getting spun around or thrown off-balance on inside moves. Power rushers drive him into the quarterback’s lap more often than you’d like to see. Jones clearly is an athletic person — that’s why he was drafted so high — but he struggles to always utilize those physical gifts in a way that contributes to winning football.
Having a better passing attack should open things up, but the question will be by how much? While I’m optimistic the wide receiver room will be drastically better than it was last season, the Steelers will still be capped by their quarterback play. Rodgers’ penchant for checking it down and running a short, quick passing game attack is unlikely to deter safeties from creeping in all that much. That is, not unless Rodgers winds back the clock and takes more shots to the deep and intermediate parts of the field, giving them a reason to stay back at the snap.
I am hopeful for improvements to the line this year, but the Steelers might still be a year or two away from getting all the pieces just right.
Join in on Steelers R&R by sharing your takes on this week’s topics. Feel free to pitch future questions in the comment section or on Twitter/X: tag @_Ryland_B or @RyanParishMedia, or email us at steelersreadnreact@gmail.com.
