The playoffs are officially here and the Yankees are set to add another chapter to their storied rivalry with the Red Sox. The two teams will face each other in the postseason for the seventh time, this edition a rematch of last year’s AL Wild Card Series. The Yankees advanced in three games as Cam Schlittler burst onto the national scene with eight shutout innings and a dozen strikeouts in the decisive Game 3. The looming date with Boston represents just the first hurdle in their quest for the long-elusive
28th title.
A substantial number of things need to fall into place for us to see a ticker-tape parade through the Canyon of Heroes in November, but don’t count these Yankees out. Despite the uncertainty of Aaron Judge’s availability, this team has enough to win even with the best hitter on Earth hobbled. They’ve shown that during the regular season, posting comfortably the second-best record in the AL despite Judge appearing in just 66 games. They have weathered injuries to a significant number of their star players, building the confidence and belief that they’re still in any game regardless of who they’ve got on the field.
As much as stretches this summer revealed the deficiencies on the roster, make no mistake, this is one of the strongest overall units heading into the postseason. They were tops in the AL and fourth overall in MLB in run differential (+138), revealing a sturdy foundation on both sides of the ball. Indeed, the Yankees offense scored the most runs per game (4.59) of any team in the AL while finishing second in the Junior Circuit in slugging (.409). Their pitchers were even better, posting the best ERA in MLB (3.24), the lowest batting average against in the AL (.222), and tying for the second-best FIP in MLB (3.71).
Specifically, starting pitching is what carried the team in the regular season and is what will make or break their postseason ambitions. Yankees starters posted the lowest ERA (3.30) and FIP (3.57) in baseball despite significant time missed by four out of their six starters. With their full stable of arms having gotten healthy or on the cusp of return, opposing teams will have to brace for the full force of their pitching might.
It all starts with presumptive AL Cy Young Cam Schlittler, who will get the ball in Game 1 against Boston on Tuesday night. Schlittler charges into the playoffs having posted the third-lowest ERA (1.95) by a starter in Yankees history while also setting a franchise record for the most starts (22) allowing one or fewer runs. He’ll be followed in Game 2 by Max Fried, who despite missing two stints with a left elbow bone bruise still posted a 2.80 ERA and finished among the game’s best in run suppression and damage limitation. The pair are among the top-12 pitchers in MLB by Statcast pitching run value, Schlittler also placing in the 95th percentile in strikeout rate while Fried was 96th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. In the event of a winner-take-all Game 3, Gerrit Cole gets the nod over Carlos Rodón, who could yet factor into the rotation should the Yankees advance to the later rounds.
The bullpen can proudly stand toe to toe with their rotation having posted the second-best ERA (3.15) in baseball behind only the Red Sox (2.99). The stable might be short a pair of horses, Fernando Cruz and Clarke Schmidt recently placed on the 60-day and 15-day ILs, respectively, but this is still a group capable of shutting down any offense. David Bednar finally brought some long-absent stability to the closer role with a 2.47 ERA, 2.61 FIP, and the fifth-most saves (35) in MLB. Fireman Brent Headrick was the eighth-most valuable reliever in baseball at 2.1 fWAR thanks to a 2.18 ERA and 2.46 FIP while setup man Paul Blackburn pitched to the third-lowest ERA (1.65) of any qualified reliever, pitching coach Matt Blake again working his magic to transform that pair of former castoffs into legitimate relief aces.
Things get a little trickier on offense, particularly with Judge likely unavailable for the Wild Card Series (though don’t tell the captain that), but this is still a group that can punish any pitching staff. The confidence to say that is built on the surging form that many of their hitters are carrying into October. The offense collectively suffered during the summer swoon, but guys are getting hot at just the right time.
Ben Rice became just the 13th different Yankees to reach the 40-HR benchmark in a season, placing among the top-six in MLB in home runs (41) and wRC+ (149), his 195 wRC+ in September among the best in baseball. Cody Bellinger missed a month with a left hamstring strain but returned to post a 122 wRC+ in his final 24 games. Austin Wells was one of the worst qualified hitters in baseball but posted an .800 OPS and 127 wRC+ after the Yankees declined to add a catcher at the deadline. Jazz Chisholm Jr. failed to fulfill his preseason 50-50 promise, but still ended the year with the third-most steals (41) in MLB and a 122 wRC+ in September.
Luis García Jr. hit the ground running after joining from the Nationals, and though he cooled off in the final weeks still finished with the eighth-best SLG (.521) in MLB. Fellow Trade Deadline acquisition Heliot Ramos had a nightmarish start to his Yankees career, but owns a 157 wRC+ since August 28th and remains a weapon particularly against the Red Sox and one of the most left-handed pitching staffs in MLB history. Paul Goldschmidt’s 168 wRC+ against lefties could also factor in to the series against Boston.
Spencer Jones struggled in his first taste of the majors but has since proven he belongs at this level with 11 home runs and a 111 wRC+ since the first week of June, giving the Yankees greater upside on offense and defense in center after replacing the injured Trent Grisham. Fellow rookie George Lombard Jr. experienced growing pains on both sides of the ball after an initial burst of success, but quickly adjusted to give New York some long-absent surety with the glove and bat at shortstop. Anthony Volpe’s reps at third and mechanical swing adjustment allow the Yankees to replace Ryan McMahon’s anemic bat and regressing glove at the hot corner while also keeping Lombard and Chisholm’s bats in the lineup.
Zooming out to the external factors, in a certain sense you could say the stars have somewhat aligned for the Yankees. Initially it seems that a gauntlet of the Red Sox and Rays (who alongside the Yankees easily make up the three best teams in the AL) just to reach the ALCS disproportionately disfavors the Yankees and favors the AL Central and West teams. However, it might just be beneficial to face your two toughest opponents in short series where dominant starting pitching can exert a greater influence on the outcome of the series. I’ll take Schlittler, Fried, Cole, and Rodón over Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez of the Red Sox and Drew Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta, and Nick Martinez of the Rays.
Should they advance from both those series, their prospective ALCS opponent would pull from a historically weak AL. The Guardians and White Sox advanced out of the AL Central with fewer than 86 wins while the Astros won the AL West with a .500 record. Chicago is an incredibly young roster with little to no postseason experience. Cleveland remains a pitching factory but frankly their bats don’t scare anyone. And while the Astros boast likely AL MVP Yordan Alvarez and have been the Yankees’ personal postseason demon for a decade, the rest of the offense and pitching staff is nowhere close to their perennial World Series-contending years.
If all those cards fall into place, the Yankees will find themselves back in the Fall Classic with a chance to avenge their 2024 crashout. Things are far more competitive in the Senior Circuit, another factor which could work in the Yankees’ favor. The obvious juggernaut is the Dodgers, looking to become the first team to three-peat since the Yankees’ turn-of-the-millennium dynasty. However, you could absolutely see either of the Braves or Phillies pushing them to the brink in the NLCS, and that’s before a prospective date with destiny with the winningest team in MLB, the Brewers. Assuming the top two seeds advance to the NLCS, there is absolutely a scenario where the Dodgers and Brewers cannibalize each other in a seven-game thriller. If the Yankees rotation is able to take care of business and shorten the three series in the AL, the Yankees could be far better rested than any opponent they may face in the World Series.
The X-factor in all of this is the availability of the Yankees’ two most fearsome sluggers in Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Judge has not resumed baseball activities since straining his calf on September 16th but sounds determined to suit up and play through the pain, while Stanton is said to be knocking on the door of a return. It is perhaps telling that the Yankees plan to roster fewer than 12 pitchers for the ALWCS, leaving the door open for one or both of Judge and Stanton to be rostered. Just imagine the option of bringing either guy in to pinch-hit against one of Boston’s many lefties. Despite missing most of the season, Stanton remains the hitter I trust most in the playoffs given his outstanding postseason track record in pinstripes. And as for Judge, wouldn’t it be fitting for the captain to make a triumphant return, put the team on his back, and cement his legacy among the Pantheon of Yankees legends by carrying the team to their 28th title?
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