Bo Nix has led the Denver Broncos to the playoffs in both of his NFL seasons so far, but he still has plenty of room to grow to be counted by all as one of the elite QBs in the NFL.
All but irrational Patriot fans, agree the Matthew Stafford was the best QB in the NFL in 2025. I discussed this earlier this month. So let’s look at a few areas where Nix can improve in 2025.
Play Action Passing
According to Sumersports.com Nix had 478 pure dropbacks and 186 play-action passes – 28% playaction. This does not factor in the
five RPOs as Nix had 669 dropbacks in 2025 and 478 + 186 is 664. 669 was most in the NFL. Dak Prescott was second with 657. One obvious way that Nix can “improve” is for the Broncos to have a better running game. A run game that the opposing defense fears makes play action so much more effective.
For those who don’t know, EPA is expected points added which looks at how yards gained or lost on a play affected the historical chance of scoring points on a drive. EPA in the NFL stands for Expected Points Added. It is an advanced football statistic that measures the net point value gained or lost on a single play based on the game’s current situation.
Playaction Plays 2025
The QBs whose offense used playaction the most in 2025 were Stafford and Daniel Jones. They were the only two above 36%. Compare that to Joe Burrow whose offense only used playaction 17.6% of the time (see below).
The Ravens had one of the best run games in the NFL in 2025 and that helped Lamar Jackson get the best EPA/play on playaction passes – 0.55. Lamar had an astounding 79% completion rate on playaction passes. Bo Nix had an EPA/play on playaction of 0.07 which was 19th of 24 qualifiers. I’m guessing that much of Bo’s lack of success was do to the defense not respecting the run game. Although J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey both faced a high percentage of stacked boxes, so maybe Bo was just not very good (yet) at playaction throws. The rushing data below is from NFL Next Gen Stats. Stacked boxes (8+ defenders) are a show of respect for the RB and disrespect for the QB.
Notice that Javonte Williams did not face many stacked boxes and this contributed to his increased success in Dallas last season.
Throwing Into Tight Windows
Another area where Nix can improve is his confidence on throwing into tight windows. NGS has a measure for this and they call it aggressiveness: Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.
Caleb Williams and Bo were the two “least aggressive” volume passers in 2025. This could be a result of their unwillingness to make mistakes by throwing into tight coverage, but it could also be a function of their lack of trust in their receivers being able to win on contested throws. Among full-time starting QBs, the most aggressive QBs were Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield. All three are established starters with no worry of getting benched for making a mistake. That being said Drake Maye was sixth in aggressiveness with two journeyman QBs with nothing to lose leading the pack (Davis Mills and Marcus Mariota). Follow the link to Twixter for the full table. Both of those guys threw plenty of YOLO balls in 2025 with many or Mariota’s coming against the Broncos. Among full-time starters, the range between the most and least aggressive was 9.1% absolute. That means that the least aggressive QB made one of these throws on 1 in 10, where the most aggressive made 1 in 5.
Intermediate Distance Throws
Another area where Bo can improve is intermediate depth throws (target is 10 to 19 yards from LOS). According to SISdatahub.com, Bo was 24th of 29 qualifiers on intermediate throws with an IQR (their proprietary passer rating) of 66.
IQR: Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.
This was poor, even compared to other first or second year QBs.
Bo also only threw 37% of his intermediate throws to the middle of the field. Only Michael Penix had a lower percentage last season at 35%. Jared Goff and Dak Prescott threw way more to the middle of the field on middle distance throws – 69% and 68%. In Bo’s case, I don’t know how much of this was his reluctance to throw there and how much of this was playcalling and/or receivers’ inability to get open there since he was reluctant throw into tight windows. Hopefully Jaylen Waddle helps open up the intermediate distance middle of the field for Bo.
On deep throws, Bo had an IQR of 88 which was 12th of 29. Justin Herbert had the best in 2025 at 120 while Jaxson Dart’s 45 was the worst. Bo had 70 deep throws and completed 25 of them, but I remember roughly 10 drops on deep throws. Stafford had the most deep completions with 36 last season on 78 throws (which was the most). Only four QBs completed 50% or more of their deep throws in 2025 – Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold, Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson.
I tabulated at the passing charts for every regular season game for Nix in 2025 (at NGS) and below is the breakdown. Bo did improve later in the season on throws beyond 10 yards from the LOS.
Compare Nix in game two to Nix in games 14 and 15:
The change could also have been taking what the defense was giving, but it is pretty dramatic from the beginning of the season with almost no throws longer than 10 yards from the LOS to plenty in the later season games.
What are do you think Bo will improve the most on in 2025? Let me know in the comments.
