So far this season, the Washington Nationals offense has very clearly been the strength of the team. Even after cooling off slightly the past week or so, the offense is still top 10 in just about every major category. One thing that I think will help the offense avoid further regression is Daylen Lile’s bat getting hot again.
To start the season, Daylen Lile came out of the gates hot. He hit over .400 in his first six games. However, he began to cool off as we got into April. It was a combination
of Lile getting into trouble for chasing too much and simply getting unlucky with hits not falling in. Now, he is hitting the ball with more authority, and the hits are starting to drop.
Lile is starting to find his power stroke, with two home runs in his last three games. Power is not Lile’s defining attribute, but it is an important part of his game. He has great contact skills, but his solid power helps keep defenses honest. Early in the season, he was not hitting the ball for much impact, but he has found his power swing lately.
His extra base hit bonanza has helped him raise his OPS by over 100 points in the last week. For the Nats to sustain their hot offensive start, they need Lile to be a very good hitter. CJ Abrams is a great hitter, and I think he will be more consistent this year. However, I do not think he is going to post an OPS over 1.000. We have already seen him cool off slightly the past few days.
With that in mind, the Nats need hitters other than Wood and Abrams to step up. Lile is the natural candidate to do so. He is the next best hitter on the team, and heading into the season, you could argue he was the best one. There is a reason so many Nats fans want him to be extended.
He is simply a natural hitter, and a joy to watch. When examining the numbers, I think Lile’s hot streak is only beginning. Right now, his expected batting average is .307, while his actual batting average is .284. Last year, we saw Lile underperforming his xBA for most of the season, before a red hot September closed the gap. Lile has all the skills to be a .300 hitter, and I think he could get there this season.
He has also made some defensive improvements to start the season. While Lile has made a couple highly visible gaffs, his all around play has gotten better. He has posted a +1 fielding run value so far this season. Last year, Lile was at an abysmal -10. If Lile can be an average or slightly above average defender in left, that would really help him accumulate WAR.
The biggest hole in Lile’s game right now is his base running. Statcast ranks him as the 6th worst base runner in the game right now. If you watch the games, that would make sense, as Lile has made a number of mental mistakes on the bases. He has 96th percentile sprint speed, so base running should not be an issue, but it is.
Last year, he was a solid base runner due to his ability to extend doubles into triples. He has a great feel on the bases after he hits the ball, but he does not have great base stealing instincts. At just 23 years old, he has plenty of time to work on that though.
Despite that, I am still bullish on Lile, and think he is getting really hot at the plate. He hit a ball 109.5 MPH the other day, which is his max exit velocity. That is a really good sign in my opinion.
Lile is consistently hitting the ball hard, and looks locked in at the plate. He does not always play to his athleticism in the field and on the bases, but he is such a great athlete in the box. His swing is picture perfect and he is a pure hitter. Lile is one of my favorite players on the team, and he is a thrill to watch when he is hot.
