The Phillies’ starting rotation was very good in 2025. They led the majors in wins above replacement and had the second lowest ERA (with the lowest FIP). They also had quality depth, as they were able to withstand injuries to Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola that caused them to miss large chunks of the season. But heading into camp this year, there were reasons to believe they wouldn’t be able to match that performance in 2026, and the rotation might actually turn out to be a weakness.
There was plenty
of confidence in the top of the rotation where Cristopher Sanchez has established himself as an ace and Jesus Luzardo looks like a very capable number two, provided that he’s past his injury history. (Based on the extension the Phillies gave him, they certainly seem to think so).
After that, things started to get a little murky. Wheeler won’t be ready for the start of the season, and Ranger Suarez took a hefty payday and went to Boston. (Good for him, but I was okay with not paying him since he can’t seem to get through a full season healthy.) That left the Phillies with Nola, Andrew Painter, and Taijuan Walker in the Opening Day rotation, and there was uncertainty about all of them.
Nola had an awful 2025, spending much of it on the Injured List, and wasn’t very good most of the time when he did pitch. Painter, in his return from Tommy John surgery had poor numbers in the minors. And Walker is Walker: While he pitched adequately in 2025, he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball the year before.
Even more troubling was the lack of depth. With the trade of Mick Abel last year, there doesn’t appear to be anyone in the minors ready to step up and pitch well if the need arises. (To be fair, at this time last year, Abel looked like a failed prospect himself.)
While we should only place so much stock in what we see during the spring, there are signs that things are breaking in the Phillies direction.
Nola came into camp with increased velocity and pitched well in the WBC. If you buy into the “even year Nola” phenomenon, then we could see Nola pitch like he did in 2024 when he received Cy Young Award votes.
Painter hasn’t yet looked like the future ace we were once promised, but his Spring performance has at least indicated that he can be a viable part of a good rotation this season. There are still questions about his ability to pitch deeper into games, but that’s the case for most pitchers in April these days. He likely won’t see past the fifth inning much -if at all – in the early part of the season.
Walker has looked great this spring, giving up just one run across three appearances, and an additional three scoreless innings pitching for Mexico in the WBC. Given his track record, it’s tough to expect too much from him, but he at least looks like he can once again be a serviceable starter when the team needs him.
In perhaps the best news of the spring, Wheeler has reportedly made great progress in his return from surgery. He’s ahead of schedule and might be back in the Phillies’ rotation in May.
There’s obviously a lot that could go wrong: Nola might go back to having frequent mid-inning meltdowns and giving up multiple home runs in every start. (To be fair, he gives up a fair share of home runs in his good seasons too.) Painter might be Spencer Howard 2.0 in that he can’t maintain top velocity for more than a couple of innings. Walker might not be able to overcome his lack of stuff and revert to being one of the worst pitchers in baseball. And even if he makes it back to the majors, Wheeler might never regain his form that made him one of the best pitchers in the game.
That doesn’t even get into the inevitable injuries that can – and likely will – happen. An injury to either Sanchez or Luzardo would be tough to overcome, and the thought of seeing the likes of Bryse Wilson or Alan Rangel making multiple starts is not a comforting one.
But don’t forget that there’s also a lot that can go right, and based on what we’ve seen this spring, there’s reason to believe that the Phillies will once again have one of the best rotations in baseball.
