No Giannis. Reduced expectations. Fewer games. All of this has to mean less pain, right? Don’t be so sure. Over the past fortnight, the Bucks have learned otherwise. And so have we.
vs. 76ers
There’s energy to begin this one. Ryan Rollins opens the Bucks’ scoring with a fast-break dunk off a precarious pass from Kevin Porter Jr., and the crowd comes to life. Rollins hits a three off another Porter find not long after, and then Myles Turner gets in on the action with a three of his own to give the Bucks an 11-9
lead. Time out, Sixers.
Moments later, scores tied, the Bucks are on defence, and Adem Bona lurks in the left corner, coiled like a spring under tension. The 76ers run their action, but Tyrese Maxey is cut off, forced to backpedal and reset the play. He kicks it to Jared McCain on the opposite wing, who drives left, forcing Turner to dig. It’s here that Bona’s eyes light up, potential energy transforming to kinetic. He curls around the makeshift screen, receives the handoff from McCain, and uncoils right down the centre of the lane, rim in sight. Turner contests, but it’s too late, Bona’s flying with too much length—too much momentum—and he lays it in over the top. The moment is subtle—there are no “oohs” or “ahhs”—but it springs the 76ers into a 19-4 run that’s capped off by a McCain three, and the Bucks can never recover.
Win probability after Bona’s layup: 43.7%
Win probability after McCain’s three: 17.7%
@ Pistons
The Bucks venture to Motown, and despite AJ Green’s absence, there are promising signs early. Porter snags three steals in the first, and Turner drains three from deep. But the Pistons just dominate the glass—18-7—and take a seven-point lead into the second. Clearly set on revenge after losing in Milwaukee just three days prior, Detroit’s physicality doesn’t just show up on the boards. Porter sees it, feels it too—every trap, drive, attempt coming with a bump. But he feels himself even more and tries to single-handedly keep the Bucks in it. Behind-the-back crossovers into bank shot and-ones. Up fakes into tippy-toe threes. Rise up and stick it in your eye Js. He does it all—gives his all—on his way to a game (and Bucks personal) high 32 points on 69% shooting, including 7/9 from three. He adds six assists too and would’ve had at least a handful more if his teammates could knock down the open looks he generated for them.
Alas, here they are. The Bucks start the fourth down, but it’s just 10—nothing in the modern game. 16 points ain’t nothin’ though, and that’s exactly what it is just a minute later after Bobby Portis turns it over in the backcourt following a defensive stop to start the quarter. Porter keeps trying, hitting his seventh three, but it’s all in vain and the Pistons run away with it, the Bucks waving the white flag.
Win probability to start the fourth: 7.9%
Win probability after consecutive threes following Portis turnover: 1.6%
vs. Celtics
The Boston Celtics are in the building, and the Fiserv Forum crowd looks simultaneously like Jaylen Brown’s hair and the Bucks’ defence—gaps, everywhere. The Celts do their thing, racking up threes and controlling the ball, building double-digit leads in both the first and second quarters. The Bucks stick with it, though; Bobby Portis is bringing buckets from the bench, and when he checks back in over halfway through the third, it’s a tied game. Scores locked at 75, Brown forgets what he said just days earlier and sells his soul to draw a foul on Porter. Boos chorus through Fiserv and Porter feels it, gets into Brown’s grill, and offers him his own two cents. Juiced, Porter forces Brown to give it up on the ensuing play and then tracks down the rebound. He pushes in transition, finds Portis in the corner, and you already know the result. Money. He’s now 5/5 from deep. Brown responds with a tough middy, and Portis decides he’s had enough of this finesse game, goes old-school, backing his way to a left-shoulder hook for two. Back on defence, Porter hounds Brown into another tough middy—this time forcing the miss—and collects the carom.
Sensing the moment, Portis turns into Usain Bolt, moves faster than he ever has, hunting the corner three, the post-up—whatever he can get. And you best believe he’s getting it. Eventually, the ball finds him and he channels his inner KG, slapping the ball on the catch, the reverberation a precursor for what’s to come. The homage continues with the three-dribble to the middle, then the turnaround, then the splash of the net. But that ain’t enough. Not when the big fella’s feeling like this. He halts his transition to defence, realises the impression isn’t complete, and turns back to Brown. Arms rigid, neck in full extension, crazy eyes bulging, he barks at Brown: “This is my city! I’m the MFing mayor!” And when Brown retaliates, pushing BP in the chest, it’s already over—the Devil has come to collect.
Win probability when Portis re-enters in the third, scores tied at 75: 39.8%
Win probability after Portis’ turnaround on Brown: 62.1%
vs. Nets
Fresh off an inspired win over the Celtics and playing the 6-18 Nets, the Bucks have a chance for just their third set of consecutive wins of the season. But when Nic Claxton wins the tip and rookie Egor Demin—shooting a paltry 37% from the field for the season—splashes the opening three of the game, a shiver runs down your spine, and your chest tightens. The Nets go on to make seven of their first nine shots from the field and put up 37 first-quarter points, making a mockery of the Bucks’ defence. Demin finishes the game with 17 points on 75% shooting—outscoring Rollins and Porter combined—and the Nets gut the Bucks, win by 45 points. As the Bucks head back to the locker room, you have flashbacks to the 15-win 2013–14 season and, although these Bucks have nearly eclipsed that win total already, you find yourself longing for those days—when the fun of potential outshone the disappointment of expectation.
Win probability to begin the game: 56.5%
Win probability after Demin’s opening three: 51.3% (but it felt like a whole lot less)
vs. Raptors
The hump grows quickly in this one—sand passing through an hourglass—and the Bucks find themselves in a 10-point deficit just two and a half minutes into the game. Players groan, fans moan, and a thought detonates in their collective consciousness: here we go again. But a quick timeout stops the bleeding and they regroup—hang around like flies in the heat—and suddenly it’s the fourth quarter. A Portis floating jumper makes it a six-point game at the 9:56 mark, and the top of the hump is well and truly in sight. KPJ sees it too: a steal and a fast break dunk cuts it to just four, momentum all Bucks. But the vision is a mirage on the desert dunes, and he mishandles the ball on the interception. Loose, it caroms around before landing in the lap of Gradey Dick in the corner, who buries the open three with just 3.4 seconds left on the shot clock. It’s a microcosm of the Bucks’ season—full of potential and, if just something went differently here or there, a different story. Tonight, though, the hump is just too much, and on the season it’s turning into a mountain.
Win probability after Portis’ jumper: 17%
Win probability after Dick’s three: 10.8%
@ Timberwolves
Forget about the opening quarter, where the Bucks never trail—never even tie. Forget about the second, where they continue the renaissance, look like the team we thought this could be to start the season. And forget about the opening of the third, where Porter converts a dunk and then a cutting layup to put the Bucks up 16, forcing Chris Finch into a timeout. Instead, skip to the fourth—three minutes left—long after a 23-2 Wolves run got them right back into it. And now they lead 98-93.
Anthony Edwards has the ball on the right wing. He’s trapped, forced to give it up to Julius Randle at the top of the three-point arc. Randle has been quiet tonight—just nine shot attempts—and he wants none of this moment. So he drives to the paint, drops it off to Rudy Gobert camping in the dunker’s spot. Gobert does what he does, rises for the point-blank two. But Porter’s not having this—not after he’s led the Bucks all night, putting up a near triple-double—and so he meets Gobert at the summit, swats him into the backboard. The ball ricochets towards the Bucks’ basket, igniting the fast break, and Portis grabs it and pushes. One dribble. Two. Three. All he has to do is gather and finish, give the Bucks the jolt that will push them over the top, and win one they deserve on the road. Start a road trip that will revive their season. Instead, he… just leaves the ball behind and, on the other end, it finds Edwards on the left wing, perfectly in stride. Edwards is just 5/20 on the night, 1/9 from three, but that don’t matter—this dude lives for the moment. And so he finishes the stride, rises up, and splashes the three, the dagger finding its way right between the Bucks’ ribs. Right into their heart.
Win probability after Porter’s block: 14.7%
Win probability after Edward’s three: 5.0%
The thesis is clear: momentum isn’t always about what happens—it’s about what almost happens. And for the Bucks, “almost” is perfectly poignant. They woulda, coulda, shoulda… but they haven’t. And this is why it hurts.
