The Guardians will now play the AL East version of themselves, the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays are 16-11, 10th in wRC+ at 103, 8th in baserunning runs above average at 1.7, sixth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.67 (3.88) and 26th in bullpen ERA at 5.27.
The Guardians are 15-14, 16th in wRC+ at 98, 29th in baserunning runs above average at -2.4, ninth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.78 (4.25 FIP) and 21st in bullpen ERA at 4.55.
As you can see, the key to beating the Rays SHOULD be to get their starting pitchers
out of the game as quickly as possible and then beat up on their bullpen. Of course, having just seen the Guardians fail to beat up on a pretty bad Blue Jays’ pen, I am a bit skeptical at the moment. Hopefully, they surprise us.
Matchups:
Game One: Parker Messick, LHP 1.76 ERA (2.54 FIP) vs. Steven Matz, LHP 4.81 ERA (3.06 FIP)
Game Two: Tanner Bibee, RHP 4.45 ERA (4.64 FIP) vs. Nick Martinez, RHP 2.10 ERA (3.89 FIP)
Game Three: Gavin Williams, RHP 3.28 ERA (4.44 FIP) vs. Drew Rasmussen, RHP 2.45 ERA (4.10 FIP)
The Guardians’ offense is led by Daniel Schneemann at 167 wRC+, Angel Martinez 137 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 124 wRC+, Chase DeLauter 122 wRC+, Brayan Rocchio 122 wRC+, David Fry 110 wRC+, and Rhys Hoskins 103 wRC+. Is this the series that Kyle Manzardo, Bo Naylor, George Valera and/or Steven Kwan emerge from April hibernations? One can only hope.
The Rays’ offense is led by familiar frenemies Yandy Diaz 157 wRC+, Junior Caminero 131 wRC+, and Richie Palacios 126 wRC+. But, watch out also for Johnny DeLuca 120 wRC+, Jonathan Aranda 120 wRC+ and Jake Fraley 113 wRC+. This is a great series for those who enjoy franchise angst as we are likely to see big hits from Diaz and Caminero, but a Palacios key moment would be a cherry on top.
The Guardians are home. Time to find a way to win a series against a good team and get things back on track.
Glossary:
wRC+ – Weighted Runs Created Plus – A measure of determining a player’s run production value while controlling for park effects. 100 is league average.
Baserunning Runs Above Average – A metric including stolen base value, double-play avoidance, and taking extra bases to determine how many runs above average a team is on the basepaths
Defense – This stat gives you how many runs above average a team’s defenders save their team, adjusted for positional value (i.e. a catcher has far more defensive value for a team than a first baseman).
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching. Essentially, ERA weighted by factors a pitcher can control (strikeouts, walks and homers) while eliminating as much as possible the effects of a good or bad defense.
SIERA – A metric to determine a pitcher’s true ERA based on strikeout rate, walk rate, and quality of batted-balls given up. This number is similar to ERA (3 and under is excellent) in determining player performance.
