Welcome to the Nov. 21, “Ohio State is 5-0” edition of “You’re Nuts” where our basketball writers pick and debate a college basketball topic of our choosing.
Last week, Connor and Justin discussed/debated the keys to beating Notre Dame. Ohio State did prevail in the final 10 seconds on Sunday afternoon, squeaking past the Fighting Irish, 64-63. Ohio State trailed for the majority of the the game, traded the lead back and forth in the final 10 minutes, and won it on a Christoph Tilly layup, fed directly
from John Mobley Jr.
Connor said that the priority for Ohio State would be to defend the perimeter and not let Notre Dame’s shooters pile up the threes. Notre Dame ended up 7-for-23 from three-point range (30.4%), so Ohio State did that, and they ended up winning.
Justin said Ohio State needed to focus on limiting Markus Burton, who ended up scoring 14 points — well below his season average of 19.3 at the time. He did so on a super inefficient 3-of-14 shooting, so the Buckeyes also did what Justin suggested, locking up Notre Dame’s best player.
So really, both guys were right.
Jake Diebler and the Ohio State coaching staff landed their second huge recruit of the fall on Thursday afternoon, as four-star guard LJ Smith, from Lincolnton, North Carolina, announced that he will play for Ohio State. Smith is a 6-foot-5 combo guard in the 2027 class, and is the No. 35 player in the class, according to the 247Sports composite rankings.
Last month, Ohio State got a commitment from Anthony Thompson, the No. 8 player in the 2026 class, who officially signed his letter of intent last week.
With all of this talent loading up the pipeline for the next two seasons, will that buy Diebler a little extra leash to turn this program into the one he envisions it to be?
This week’s question: Does recent recruiting success impact Jake Diebler’s job security?
Connor: Yes, it moves the goalposts back quite a bit
Heading into this season, I was pretty convinced that if Ohio State missed the NCAA Tournament for the fourth consecutive season, Ross Bjork would probably let Diebler go and look for a new solution at head coach.
Diebler is the lowest-paid coach in the Big Ten at a “measly” $2.5-million per season, and Ohio State wold only owe him 65% of his salary for each remaining year of the contract. Hypothetically speaking, Ohio State would owe him about $1.6-million each season of his contract that gets bought out. Diebler’s contract with Ohio State currently runs through the 2028-29 season.
Making the NCAA Tournament felt like the bar that needed to be cleared, and to be honest that is not too terribly high of a bar to meet. A program like Ohio State should be in the NCAA Tournament every year. Some years, it should be winning several games in the NCAA Tournament. And with the potential all-time leading scorer still on the team this season and a 5-0 start, it does feel like the team is trending in the right direction to make the NCAA Tournament this year.
However, with the additions of Thompson and Smith lately, I think the goalposts will be moved back a bit. Those two would not have committed to Ohio State if they didn’t think that the head coach would be there when they arrive, especially Thompson, who is the highest-ranked Ohio recruit to pick the Buckeyes since Jared Sullinger.
It’s almost impossible that Ohio State will fire Diebler — even if they miss the NCAA Tournament — and not at least see how Anthony Thompson impacts the program in 2026. He’s the first one-and-done, freshman superstar-caliber player Ohio State has had in over a decade, and changing the coaching staff will mean losing Thompson, too.
It would take a disastrous season, think like, 4-16 in the Big Ten bad, for Ohio State to fire Diebler and not even give those next two recruiting classes a chance to shine at Ohio State. Part of the reason Bjork hired Diebler was for his recruiting, and right now he’s seeing his head coach’s recruiting hit new highs. They’re going to give him a few years to be successful with the guys he has recruited.
I think Ohio State is going to make the NCAA Tournament this year, and this will all basically be moot. But, if things were to go sideways, I think they’re going to have to go incredibly sideways, down, around and upside down before they even consider firing him.
He’s lining up the next great line of Ohio State basketball players, and Bjork is going to let him develop those players and win games with those players.
Justin: It could buy him another season
After missing the NCAA Tournament last season, a lot of people, including myself, gave head coach Jake Diebler the ultimatum: If he and the Buckeyes do not make the NCAA Tournament this season, then they will likely be looking for a new coach again.
This is not without historic precedent. Thad Matta and Chris Holtmann were both let go after missing the tournament in two consecutive seasons. It would likely be the same with Diebler.
However, with the level Diebler is recruiting, he might be earning himself some leeway.
In the past month, the Buckeyes and Diebler have earned commitments from 2026 five-star forward Anthony Thompson and 2027 four star guard LJ Smith. Thompson is a top-10 recruit overall, and Smith is a top 30 recruit overall with a chance to improve to a five-star.
It is no secret that when a coach is fired, recruits often decommit. Ohio State saw it happen with Matta and Holtmann. Getting Thompson and Smith on campus is crucial for the basketball program and could help the argument for retaining Diebler if they were to miss the tournament again.
In the NIL and transfer portal era, it is easier to rebuild a roster quickly, so these recruits likely won’t completely save his job if they underperform on the court, but it is another wrinkle to add to the case for it.
