What a difference a year makes!
When the schedule was first released, the first 20 games looked eerily similar to last season. The Raptors would have a very difficult first quarter of the season, followed
by a very easy slate of games after the All-Star break. Last year, Toronto only won 5 of its first 20 games, kickstarting the rebuild/tank and harkening back to the Chris Bosh days when the team was constantly in the lottery.
This year has been markedly different. Toronto is on target to double that win total within the first 20 games and, with how well the team is playing lately (#4 offense, #3 defense over the last two weeks), dare I say, triple that win total!
Pardon the optimism. To get here, the Raptors have defeated a playoff mainstay in the Milwaukee Bucks, the preseason darling in the Atlanta Hawks (twice), and one of the favourites to finish atop the East in the Cleveland Cavaliers (twice). All 4 victories over Atlanta and Cleveland, mind you, have been on the road!
The Toronto Raptors have played 9 of its first 13 games on the road and have played the smallest number of home games in the NBA. With 5 of its next 6 games in the friendly confines of Scotiabank Arena, can the Raptors keep the good times rolling and continue marching up the Eastern Conference standings?
November 17 vs. Charlotte Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets roll into town with a 4-9 record, losers of 5 of its last 6 games, and a road record of 1-5. Yet, the team’s future looks very bright, thanks to their 2025 draft class.
Kon Knueppel leads all rookies with 17.2 points per game. He’s also drained more three-pointers than any rookie by a country mile. Knueppel has already knocked down 41 threes, which is 16 more (or 48% more) than the next highest rookie, Tre Johnson. Kon’s uber-efficient shooting splits, 45.6/40.2/87.5, are only bested by one other rookie……teammate, Sion James.
James, the 33rd overall pick, is shooting 48.6% from the field, 48.8 from three, and 84.2 from the charity stripe. With LaMelo Ball missing some time earlier this season, James leapfrogged Tre Mann into the starting lineup and is logging more minutes than Collin Sexton. During last week’s overtime loss to Milwaukee, James logged almost 42 minutes, accumulated 5 steals, and was part of the closing lineup. Not bad for a second-round pick fighting for minutes with Mann, Sexton, and Pat Connaughton.
Charlotte’s last draft pick may be the best of the bunch. Ryan Kalkbrenner leads all rookies with 6.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. In fact, Kalkbrenner is 2nd in the NBA in blocks, which is essentially #1 among humans since the alien in San Antonio is averaging 43% more blocks per game. He also leads the NBA, not just rookies, in FG% and eFG% with 82% shooting for both!
The Hornets knocked all 3 draft picks out of the park. On a team with LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and Brandon Miller, Charlotte still has time to make some noise in the East this season…….or tank its way to a premium pick in a loaded draft class. Either way, the future couldn’t be brighter in Charlotte.
Fun fact that may only interest me
In the 1996 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks used the 53rd overall pick on Jeff Nordgaard. He was never able to crack the roster and ultimately played in only 1 NBA season. He finished his short NBA career playing in 13 games, 48 minutes, and scoring 18 points total.
His nephew, Kon Knueppel, just played in his 13th NBA game. Last week, Knueppel played over 41 minutes and scored 32 points in an overtime loss against……the Milwaukee Bucks.
Prediction
Charlotte’s four victories are as follows: home win over the Nets, road victory over the Wizards, home win over the Jazz, home win over the Bucks (without Giannis Antetokounmpo). I’m not sure what the opposite of a “murderer’s row” is, but it probably looks something like that.
The Hornets have a bottom-10 offense and defense over the last two weeks. Josh Green, Grant Williams, and Brandon Miller are all out with injuries. They have the worst three-point defense (opponents shoot 41%) and have the second-worst halfcourt defense in points allowed per play. With “only” Ochai Agbaji and Jamison Battle listed as questionable, a healthy Raptors squad should be able to continue its positive play of late. Toronto defeats Charlotte and covers the -8.5 spread.
November 19 @ Philadelphia 76ers
Regardless of how the new All-Star format looks, it’s crystal clear, at the moment, that two All-Star starters will be in this game, Tyrese Maxey and Scottie Barnes.
Maxey is one of four players in the top-1o in both points and assists, along with Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves(!?!). He’s the only player in the top-5 in both three-point field goals and free throws made per game. Tyrese plays more minutes than anyone in the NBA, a full 3 minutes more on average! While Philadelphia’s injury situation will certainly be constant flux with Joel Embiid and Paul George on the roster, Maxey has unquestionably taken over as the team’s leader and almost single-handedly kept this team in contention.
Maxey’s backcourt mate, VJ Edgecombe, is another bright spot from an overachieving draft class. Edgecombe leads all rookies with 37.3 minutes and 4.2 assists per game. If you add up points, rebounds, and assist averages, VJ is tied with Cooper Flagg for second-most, just 0.4 behind Knueppel.
Fun fact that may only interest me
All 8 of Toronto’s wins have been by double-digits. Only Oklahoma City and Denver (9 each) have more such victories.
Philadelphia is tied with Atlanta for the most clutch wins (games decided by 5 points or less).
Both of these teams are exceeding expectations and currently sitting in way-too-early playoff positions. Ironically, when these teams faced each other two weeks ago, neither scenario played out as the Sixers won by double-digits.
Prediction
The Sixers will be playing the first game of a back-to-back, and the second of 3-games-in-4-nights stretch. Nick Nurse will surely rest Joel Embiid and Paul George. You would think he’d save Embiid for the second game against Giannis and the Bucks, while also keeping Embiid away from Toronto’s quick pace. But we also know Nurse would relish in seeing his big man torment his old team.
Philadelphia has come back to earth since getting off to the 5-1 start to the season. In losing 4 of its last 6 games, the Sixers have been a bottom-10 offense.
28, 12, and 13. Those are the margins of victories for the Raptors against Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Cleveland, respectively, the second time they faced each other. So far this season, Darko Rajakovic has been making the right adjustments, in-game and between games. Toronto covers the +5.5 spread.
November 21 vs. Washington Wizards
The third game of the NBA Cup round robin stage gives us a first look at Toronto’s bright red court.
Not to be confused with Washington’s bright red court.
Don’t get me started on Houston or Denver.
The Washington Wizards have a 1-6 record on the road, which means they’re played better(?) on the road since they’re 0-6 at home! They are the worst team in the NBA, which says a lot considering the “competition.” Washington’s last game may have been rock bottom. With a relatively healthy roster (top 11 in minutes played per game were all in uniform), the Wizards lost by 23 points…….at home…..to the Brooklyn Nets.
Fun fact that may only interest me
Are you familiar with Mario Mendoza? The last name might be a hint. Mendoza was a Major League Baseball shortstop who played for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers from 1974 to 1982. He was not a good hitter. His batting average was often very low and among the league’s worst, year after year. Coaches and players teased him by coining the team “The Mendoza Line” — having a batting average of .200 — to illustrate his offensive futility.
Here’s an example of the term being used in today’s context: Brian Keefe, is in his third season as head coach of the Washington Wizards. With only 27 wins over his 107 games coached, Keefe is approaching the Mendoza Line with a .201 winning percentage.
Prediction
Washington has the #28 offense, #29 defense, #30 transition defense, and turns the ball over more than any other team. The Raptors may score 40 points from the fastbreak alone! Washington’s starting 5 includes Alex Sarr, who’s younger than any Raptor not named Collin, Bilal Coulibaly, who can’t even average double-digits in points, and Khris Middleton, who is 34 going on 54.
CJ McCollum is still capable of getting hot, as seen in his 42-point performance against Detroit last week. Kyshawn George is coming off a 29 point, 6 rebound, and 5 assist game against Brooklyn.
There just isn’t enough substance from Washington to threaten the streaking Raptors (unless the bright red court messes up Toronto’s gameplay). Toronto routs the Wizards and cover the -13.5 spread.
November 23 vs. Brooklyn Nets
Congratulations, Brooklyn, on getting your second win of the season! You have now defeated the Pacers and Wizards — the only other teams with 1 victory each!
Jokes aside, the Nets have been competitive over the last week. Including the game against Toronto, where they outscored the Raptors in the first quarter and played harder in the fourth quarter, Brooklyn also led the Magic in the final 2 minutes of their NBA Cup round robin game. The Nets may have lost, but the team appears to be finding its bright spots.
Michael Porter Jr. had a season-high 34 points in the victory over the Wizards. Tyrese Martin chipped in with 20 off the bench and was a game-high +26. Against Orlando, Ziaire Williams had 15 points and 3 steals, almost single-handedly outscoring the Magic’s reserves (18 points).
Most importantly to the franchise, Brooklyn has less than $80 million committed to MPJ, Nic Claxton, and Terance Mann, plus a slew of rookie contracts. They figure to be major players in next offseason’s free agency market, and will also likely have a high draft pick to boot.
Fun fact that may only interest me
Brooklyn selected 5 players in the 2025 NBA Draft: Egor Demin, Nolan Traore, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, and Adou Thiero.
Toronto selected 2 players in the 2025 NBA Draft: Collin Murray-Boyles and Alijah Martin.
Total Win Shares by Brooklyn’s rookies: -0.2
Total Win Shares by CMB (Martin has not played this season): 0.5
Prediction
When these teams faced last, the Raptors slept-walk to an easy win. Toronto clearly didn’t take Brooklyn seriously as they got off to a sluggish start. While the Raptors turned it on and cruised to victory, they also took their foot of the pedal, allowing the Nets to decrease the margin of victory to a respectable 10 points.
Remember that stat about Toronto performing better the second time they see an appointment? Imagine what that would look like against a team that will struggle to hit the Mendoza Line! Toronto routs Brooklyn and cover the -13.5 spread.
Last Week: 3-0
Season Record: 10-3
