In an extremely entertaining week of conference play, Illinois’ Keaton Wagler stole the show with a 46-point performance on the road against Purdue. UCLA started the week with a bang as the Bruins handed the Boilermakers their first loss in conference play. And of course, Nebraska just kept on winning, setting up a massive road game against Michigan tomorrow night.
Michigan – No. 1 Seed (No. 2 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 1 Seed (No. 2 overall)
The Wolverines returned home after their trip to the Pacific Northwest and played two solid
games against tournament-caliber teams. Michigan led by as many as 25 points in an 86-72 win against Indiana to start the week, then moved on to a rivalry matchup with Ohio State. The Buckeyes put up a much better fight than the Hoosiers, as they never trailed by more than 15 points, but the Wolverines fought through a terrible shooting night (22% on three-pointers and 60% on free throws) to claim a 74-62 victory. After nine games, Michigan is 8-1 in conference play, but the schedule gets a lot tougher this week, as the Wolverines play the 20-0 Nebraska Cornhuskers and in-state rival Michigan State (8-1 in conference play).
Nebraska – No. 1 Seed (No. 4 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 Seed (No. 6 overall)
The Cornhuskers cruised through another week to reach an absolutely ridiculous 20-0 record for the season. Nebraska beat Washington 76-66 at home, then went on the road and beat Minnesota 76-57. Arguably, the most impressive thing about Nebraska’s win was that, due to Braden Frager’s injury, Cale Jacobsen was the only bench player who logged more than six minutes played. Despite not being able to go more than essentially a six-man rotation, the Cornhuskers outlasted the Golden Gophers, outscoring them 46-21 in the second half. Nebraska moves up to the final No. 1 seed in a reshuffling of the teams seeded fourth to sixth after a very eventful week.
Illinois – No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
The Fighting Illini beat Maryland 89-70 to begin the week, but that wasn’t the real story of the week. Illinois sent a message not only to the rest of the conference, but to the rest of the country with an 88-82 win on the road against Purdue. Freshman Keaton Wagler scored 46 points in the back-and-forth battle as the Illini claimed their first win over a top-ten team in KenPom since they beat Iowa State in the Sweet Sixteen in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Wagler’s 46 points set many records, including the freshman scoring record in Illinois history and the most points by a visitor in Mackey Arena history. Illinois still has too many losses to be seriously considered in the conversation for a one-seed, but the Illini’s collection of wins, along with stellar predictive metrics, means they could find their way into that conversation very soon.
Michigan State – No. 2 Seed (No. 8 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 12 overall)
The Spartans took care of business against two of the B1G’s worst teams this week, giving up exactly 100 combined points to Oregon and Maryland in two blowout wins. Michigan State beat Oregon 68-52, despite Tom Izzo saying one of his players couldn’t even guard his mom (yes, that’s a real quote), before going back home to play Maryland. The Spartans beat the Terrapins 91-48, powered by Jeremy Fears Jr.’s 17-point, 17-assist night. Michigan State will play Rutgers on the road before returning home for a rivalry matchup against Michigan.
Purdue – No. 3 Seed (No. 11 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 1 Seed (No. 4 overall)
The Boilermakers entered the week with one loss and left the week with two more. Purdue couldn’t finish off an undefeated road trip to the West Coast, losing 69-67 to UCLA on a clutch shot by Tyler Bilodeau. The Boilermakers returned home with an even bigger challenge looming. Despite Braden Smith’s 27-point, 12-assist game, Purdue lost 88-82 at home to Illinois. The Boilermakers have now lost twice at home this year, and with three total losses at this point in the season, it will be an uphill battle for Purdue to try to climb back into the one-seed race before the end of the season.
Iowa – No. 8 Seed (No. 29 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 Seed (No. 25 overall)
The Hawkeyes beat Rutgers 68-62 on Tuesday in an unexpectedly close game at home. Iowa evened out its conference record at 4-4 and will have an extended period of rest before returning to action against USC at home on Wednesday. The Hawkeyes retain a solid position in the bracket, but still need to continue to take care of business in conference play to feel secure about getting an NCAA Tournament bid.
Wisconsin – No. 9 Seed (No. 37 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 9 Seed (No. 35 overall)
The Badgers reached their peak in bracketology projections early in the week after destroying Penn State on the road 98-71. However, Wisconsin could not finish the week undefeated, as it lost 73-71 at home to USC despite leading by 12 points with 12 minutes left in the game. While that loss is a Quad 2 loss and affects the Badgers a little, it wasn’t a bad enough loss to take them entirely out of the NCAA Tournament picture. Wisconsin will remain at home to end the month against Minnesota and Ohio State.
Ohio State – No. 10 Seed (No. 39 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 10 Seed (No. 39 overall, Last Four Byes)
The Buckeyes had both of their two games this week go pretty much as the games were expected to go. Ohio State beat a pesky Minnesota team 82-74 in overtime, then took the show on the road to play Michigan. The Buckeyes led for a decent portion of the first half, and opened up the second half on a 10-1 run to take a six-point lead with 17:40 remaining. However, from that point forward, it was all Wolverines, and Michigan pulled away late for a 74-62 win. Ohio State remains on the bubble, but could solidify its positioning within the tournament picture with a win on the road against Wisconsin this weekend.
UCLA – No. 10 Seed (No. 40 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: First Four Out
The Bruins had one of the best weeks in the conference, as they vaulted into the NCAA tournament picture with a 2-0 week. Tyler Bilodeau’s go-ahead three-pointer with 8.4 seconds left powered UCLA to a 69-67 win against Purdue at home. Given the Bruins’ best win of the year before that game was a road win against Washington, a Quad 1A win completely changed the outlook on UCLA’s season. The Bruins closed out the week with a 71-64 win against Northwestern to keep them in good standing in the tournament picture, after entering the field with the win against the Boilermakers.
USC – No. 11 Seed (No. 41 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 10 Seed (No. 38 overall, Last Four Byes)
The Trojans were expected to go 1-1 heading into the week, but even though they did go 1-1, they definitely flipped the order. USC lost 74-68 at home to Northwestern (who entered the contest winless in conference play) to start the week. But the Trojans salvaged the week by going on the road and upsetting Wisconsin 73-71, despite the Badgers entering that game at 6-2 in conference play. The Trojans would have been outside of the projected NCAA Tournament field had they lost that game, but they find themselves just on the right side of the bubble after picking up their first Quad 1 win of the season.
Indiana – First Four Out
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 43 overall, Last Four In)
The Hoosiers opened up the week on the road against Michigan, but lost 86-72 to extend their losing skid to four games. Indiana finally snapped that streak with an 82-59 win on the road against Rutgers on Friday, but wins against the bottom of the conference this year don’t move the needle too much in terms of NCAA tournament projections. The Hoosiers desperately need at least one win this week against either Purdue at home or UCLA on the road to stay on the right side of the bubble.
Washington – In Consideration
Previous seeding: In Consideration
The Huskies had a decent week, as they kept it close against Nebraska on the road, falling 76-66, then defeated Oregon 72-57 at home. Unfortunately for Washington, while other bubble teams are pulling off big upsets to bolster their tournament chances, the Huskies haven’t been able to do the same. Eventually, Washington will have to come up with a few wins as an underdog to really factor into the NCAA Tournament picture, and the next opportunity to do that will come against Illinois on the road this week.
Northwestern – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Wildcats embarked on their West Coast trip, and on the first leg of the trip, finally claimed their first conference win of the season. Northwestern shook up its starting lineup, inserting Tyler Kropp for his first two career starts, and it paid off with a 74-68 win against USC. The Wildcats kept the same lineup, but couldn’t replicate the same success against UCLA, falling 71-64 in that game. Northwestern played arguably its best stretch of two games in conference play, and will look to carry the momentum into a two-game homestand against Penn State and Washington.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
After a 3-1 start to conference play, the Golden Gophers have come up with multiple good performances, but none have been good enough to get another conference win. Minnesota took Ohio State to overtime on the road earlier this week, but fell 82-74 in overtime. The Golden Gophers also took a 36-30 lead into halftime against Nebraska, but couldn’t sustain that level of play in the second half, falling 76-57 after being doubled up by the Cornhuskers in the second half.
Oregon – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The short-handed Ducks continued to struggle to get enough offensive production to win this week. Oregon couldn’t eclipse 60 points in either of its games, falling 68-52 at home against Michigan State and 72-57 on the road against Washington. The Ducks will play UCLA and Iowa at home this week, but it’s hard to see them getting any victories anytime soon with Nate Bittle out for the foreseeable future and Jackson Shelstad likely out for the season.
Penn State – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The struggles continued in the Nittany Lions’ only game of the week. Penn State was never in the game against Wisconsin at home, trailing 50-22 at the half, and losing 98-71. As a result of Northwestern’s win against USC, the Nittany Lions are now the only team that remains winless in conference play. The next two opportunities for Penn State to get on the board with a win will be against Ohio State and Northwestern on the road.
Maryland – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Terrapins had a tough assignment this week, taking on two top-11 teams on the road. Maryland quickly lost any momentum it had after a 23-point win over Penn State when it lost 89-70 against Illinois. The Terrapins didn’t look any better at the Breslin Center, where they lost 91-48 to Michigan State. Maryland will return home after a week of rest on Sunday to play Purdue.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Scarlet Knights played another close game this week, coming up just short in a 68-62 loss on the road against Iowa on Tuesday. Rutgers put up the same lackluster offensive performance on Friday at home against Indiana, but the Scarlet Knights couldn’t keep that one close, falling 82-59 to the Hoosiers. Rutgers will take on Michigan State at home before starting its West Coast trip to USC and UCLA over the weekend.
