We’ve reached a point in the Mike Elias-led reimagining of the Baltimore Orioles that many have clamored for for years: Dean Kremer is no longer guaranteed to be a member of the Orioles’ rotation.
For the last several seasons, Kremer has been the player who has most epitomized Baltimore’s struggles to adequately address their starting pitching. On most teams, the 30-year-old would be a good No.5 starter and an adequate No.4 starter. However, too often over the last three years, the Orioles asked him
to be their No. 2 or No. 3 starter, and because of it, the depth of their rotation suffered.
Thanks to a bevy of injuries and the struggles of Tomoyuki Sugano, Kremer led the Orioles last season in innings pitched (171.2) and finished second behind Sugano in total number of starts (29 vs. 30). In those 29 starts, the Stockton, CA native delivered a typical Dean Kremer season. For the third season in a row, the right-hander delivered an ERA just north of 4.00, a WHIP just above 1.20 and modest strikeout rates.
Kremer has built a reputation of streakiness, both hot and cold, and it was no different in 2025. His first month of the season was horrible, as he suffered to a 7.04 ERA and .310 BAA. From the beginning of May until the All-Star break, we saw good Kremer. Over 13 starts, the right-hander put up a 3.13 ERA, a .241 BAA and a 1.16 WHIP. The second half of his season saw Kremer return to mediocrity, as his ERA settled at 4.12, though his BAA lowered to .224 and his WHIP also dipped further to 1.11.
Heading into the 2026 season, Kremer has a chance to assume his idealized role as the Orioles’ No. 5 starter. Everything in Sarasota suggests that the expected pecking order at the top of the rotation remains 1. Trevor Rogers, 2. Kyle Bradish and 3. Shane Baz.
After those three, Kremer, new singing Chris Bassitt and resigning Zach Eflin will compete for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. The prevailing assumption is that Eflin will begin the year on the IL as he ramps up from back surgery last August. Given his $18.5M salary and three Top-10 Cy Young finishes in the last six seasons, Bassitt’s spot in the rotation seems most secure. That means, once Eflin is fully healthy, Kremer will have to fend him off to keep his role as the fifth starter.
Whether or not being the same old same old Dean Kremer will be enough to retain that rotation is the question the 30-year-old will have to answer this season. Neither Baseball Reference nor FanGraphs expect Kremer to morph into a completely different pitcher in 2026. In fact, both expect him to take somewhat of a step back.
- Baseball Reference: 4.18 ERA, 157 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 140 K, 51 BB
- FanGraphs’ ZiPS: 4.28 ERA, 147.1 IP, 1.29 WHIP, 124 K, 45 BB
BR’s projection would see Kremer essentially maintaining his ERA from last season while taking a slight hit to his WHIP and seeing his K/9 rate receive a slight bump (7.4 to 8.0). FanGraphs, on the other hand, see him taking a noticeable step back in ERA, innings pitched and subsequent counting stats. The projection of around 150 innings for the right-hander likely corresponds to roughly 25 starts, meaning a world where he holds his rotation spot for most of the season but not the whole year.
It’s possible that the pressure of competing for his spot for perhaps the first time in his career will help Kremer take his game to a new level. He had a strong showing for Israel in the World Baseball Classic, pitching 4.1 shutout innings with four strikeouts against Nicaragua. The average MLB team will be significantly better than Nicaragua, but his strong showing in the WBC could reflect a growing ability to step up when the lights are brightest.
There’s also the possibility that the Orioles will roll with a six-man rotation once Eflin is fully healthy. That option would make some sense given that Bradish and Baz both have had Tommy John surgery, while neither Rogers nor Eflin made 20 starts last season due to various injury concerns.
If manager Craig Albernaz opts for a traditional five-man rotation, Kremer will have to start the season hot to fend off a healthy Eflin. If he can’t ultimately beat out Eflin, it raises the question of whether he fits in the bullpen as a long reliever. Kremer only has three career relief appearances; once in 2022 and once last year he came in after an opener, and he also entered in the 6th inning of the last game of the 2025 season. Eflin has 12 career relief appearances, but hasn’t come out of the bullpen since 2022.
Having Dean Kremer fight to be the last starter in your rotation is certainly better than having Dean Kremer fight to be the ace of your rotation. It’s also worth noting that if Kremer makes 30+ starts this season, he will move into the franchise’s Top 25 for career games started. If he doesn’t pitch well enough to earn those 30 starts (and with only one year of team control left after 2026), this season could be the beginning of the end for the Orioles secont-longest tenured pitcher.
